This is the last major MMA event of the year and I’d be absolutely gutted if we finished 2014 with a loss. I’ve never made a loss in 2 consecutive months and I’ve been working extremely hard to make sure that I don’t break that streak with my betting tips for UFC Fight Night 58.
All of my Premium Members and regular visitors have stuck by me this year, enjoying the highs of the summer and the lows of November and nothing would make me happier than to close out the year with a profit. As a result, I’ve worked my ass off this week and come up with 5 betting tips that should help us finish the year with a win.
Normally I’d start plugging my Premium Membership Service, but instead I just want to thank you for sticking with me. After an amazing start to the year, it’s been rocky towards the end, but you’ve all stuck with me and I can’t put into words how much that truly means to me.
Running a website like this makes you an easy target for people to criticize you and I feel a lot of pressure after making a loss. Your support really helps pull me through the tough times and together, I just know that we’re going to absolutely smash it next year.
Thanks again for all your support and I really hope you have an amazing Christmas!!!
Don’t forget to checkout my Premium Betting Tips for UFC Fight Night 58.
3 FIGHT PARLAY ACCUMULATOR – LYOTO MACHIDA vs CB DOLLAWAY | MITCH GAGNON vs RENAN BARAO | ERICK SILVA vs MIKE RHODES
I hate to be boring, but I’m going to recommend that you throw Machida, Barao and Silva into a 3 fight parlay accumulator. You’ll probably know by now that I don’t like to place these kinds of bets, but I’ll make an exception for this event because I don’t see how any of these Brazilians are going to lose with home advantage on their side.
Lyoto Machida, Renan Barao and Erick Silva have such significant advantages over their opponents, that breaking down each of their fights would take far too long. Instead, I’m going to address the weaknesses in each of their skillsets, which have given past opponents an opportunity to beat them.
LYOTO MACHIDA vs CB DOLLAWAY
I’ll start with Lyoto Machida who’s biggest weakness is his inactivity and the fact that he throws rounds away by fighting way too passively. This is always a concern when betting on Machida, but aside from the first 2 rounds of his fight against Chris Weidman, he appears to be fighting a lot more aggressively at Middleweight.
CB Dollaway is tough as nails and if this fight was 3 rounds, I’d be very worried that Dollaway could use his wrestling to steal a scrappy decision. In a 5 round fight, I don’t see how Dollaway is going to be able to steal 3 out of the 5 rounds, when he doesn’t have experience competing in 5 round fights.
It’s unlikely that Dollaway is going to be able to knock Machida out and he’s far too slow to be able to outstrike him. It’s possible that he could take Machida down, but even if he did, it’s unlikely that he would be able to keep this fight on the ground for long enough to win a decision. Apart from being young and hungry, Dollaway doesn’t have that many ways that he can win…
If Machida fought in the 1st and 2nd rounds against Chris Weidman, like he did in the 3rd, 4th and 5th, it’s quite possible that he could be the current UFC Middleweight Champion. Lyoto seems like an intelligent guy and he also seems legitimately motivated to get a rematch against Weidman. I’m hoping that he learnt a lot from his fight against Weidman and he comes out and fights a lot more aggressively. If he does, he will destroy CB Dollaway.
In terms of styles, Dollaway has nothing for Machida here. If you go back and watch Dollaway’s last few fights, you’ll notice that he has improved his striking offence, but he still has really bad striking defence. Dollaway obviously has better wrestling than Machida, but he’s been reluctant to use it in his last few fights and I doubt whether he’s going to be able to get close enough to Machida to take this fight to the ground.
MITCH GAGNON vs RENAN BARAO
Mitch Gagnon is not on Renan Barao’s level, but I didn’t feel comfortable betting on Barao until I saw him weigh in and look healthy. The good news is that he looked great at the weigh ins and he’s stopped eating junk food and started working with a nutritionist for this fight. Renan Barao was a scary dude when he held the UFC Bantamweight title and he appears very motivated to get his belt back.
I really don’t see any area of MMA where Gagnon has an advantage over Barao. There’s no question that he’s a talented fighter, but he’s not on Barao’s level and I expect the Brazilian to end this fight quickly and violently.
ERICK SILVA vs MIKE RHODES
Erick Silva has always had a lot of hype surrounding him and the UFC does a great job of promoting him as a top prospect. Going into my betting research for this fight, I had a pretty high opinion of him, but I was surprised at how underwhelmed I felt after watching his previous fights.
Yes, Silva is dangerous, but he also has huges holes in his game and he tends to fade fast. Right now, you’re probably wondering why I’m about to contradict myself by betting on Silva to win and my reasoning is very simple. Erick Silva struggles against aggressive fighters who push the pace, but Mike Rhodes is not that guy. Rhodes fights with a passive style and he’s happy to stay on the outside and react to what his opponent is doing. This is the perfect type of opponent for Silva and whilst I’m not completely sold on him, he should have no problem beating Rhodes.
CB Dollaway, Mitch Gagnon and Mike Rhodes all have such a small chance of winning, that I feel risking 10 units to win 7.1 is a pretty good bet. I probably wouldn’t place this bet if it was taking place in any other country in the world, but with home advantage on their side, I don’t see many ways in which Machida, Barao or Silva could lose. Each of them certainly has weaknesses in their game, but I don’t believe that Dollaway, Gagnon or Rhodes are the type of fighters who could expose them.
OUR BETTING TIP: 10.00 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Lyoto Machida, Renan Barao and Erick Silva to win at odds of 1.71 | -140 | 71/100
The best odds on this parlay accumulator can be found at: [adrotate group=”111″]
ELIAS SILVERIO vs RASHID MAGOMEDOV
It’s really tough to predict who is going to win this fight between Elias Silverio and Rashid Magomedov. On one hand I’d say that Magomedov is more technically skilled than Silverio, but I wouldn’t feel confident betting on him because he’s far too inactive and his opponent will have home advantage on his side. Silverio’s fighting style is very different, because he’s very aggressive and he’s constantly pushing the pace of the fight.
It’s entirely possible that Magomedov could use his superior technique to pick Silverio apart, but it’s just as likely that Silverio could win this fight by pressuring Magomedov and winning through Octagon control. Either way, I feel very confident that this fight will go the distance, because both these guys are tough and they both lack finishing ability.
It’s also worth noting that their fights regularly last longer than 2.5 rounds. Magomedov’s last 5 fights have all gone to a decision and 4 out of Silverio’s last 5 fights have also gone the distance.
The weigh-in for this fight also indicated that it would last longer than 2.5 rounds, because Magomedov and Silverio stood in a submissive stance whilst smiling at each other. A friendly weigh-in normally means that a fight is going to lack aggression and as a result it’s less likely that we’ll see a finish. The friendly atmosphere at their weigh in could also be a reason why both guys frequently go the distance. Smiling at weigh-ins is a sign of submissiveness and submissive people lack aggression. A lack of aggression means a lack of killer instinct and a lack of killer instinct leads to less finishes…
Don’t forget to checkout my Premium Betting Tips for UFC Fight Night 58.
OUR BETTING TIP: 10.00 Units [5% of your bankroll] on this fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds at odds of 1.51 | -196 | 51/100
The best odds on this fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds can be found at: [adrotate group=”111″]