UFC Fight Night 59 is an excellent event for betting, with some very generous odds available on most of the fights. As a result, I’ve got a total of 6 betting tips for this event. 2 of them can be viewed in this article and the other 4 are available to my Premium Members. One of my premium picks for this event features the fight between Benson Henderson and Donald Cerrone, whilst the rest of my picks feature a mixture of bets from the main card and prelims.
I’ve now made a profit in 4 out of the last 5 UFC events and I’m very confident of making another profit from my betting tips for UFC Fight Night 59. You can gain instant access to all of my betting tips for every MMA event for just $9.99 a month. Payments are processed by Paypal and you can cancel your membership at any time. Click here for more information.
If you’re playing Fantasy MMA at Draft Kings or Kountermove this weekend, you might also want to checkout my Fantasy MMA Strategy Guide for UFC Fight Night 59.
Don’t forget to checkout my Premium Betting Tips for UFC Fight Night 59 – McGregor vs Siver.
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CONOR McGREGOR vs DENIS SIVER
If you read this website on a regular basis, you’ll know that I’m not the type of guy who buys into hype. That’s why it may come as a surprise, when I say that I’m fully on board the Conor McGregor hype train. The turning point for me, was when he beat Dustin Poirier in the first round. Poirier is as tough as it gets, but you saw him mentally break in that fight and Poirier’s not the kind of guy that breaks easily…
Muhammed Ali and Mike Tyson often spoke about beating their opponents before they ever set foot in the ring and nobody is doing this better than Conor McGregor right now. He is living proof that it works, because Diego Brandao and Dustin Poirier have both wilted under the pressure of fighting him.
After knocking Dustin Poirier out in the first round of his last fight, McGregor copied an old Muhammed Ali one liner by stating that “I don’t just knock them out, I pick the round”. McGregor has been telling anyone that would listen that he plans on finishing Siver inside 2 minutes and at this point in his career, I have to believe him.
I feel that the odds on this fight to last less than 1.5 rounds offer good value, because I don’t see Siver being able to survive that long against McGregor. If McGregor could break a guy like Poirier within a couple of minutes, I’m pretty sure that he’ll be able to break a 36 year old post TRT user, who is short for his weight class and primarily a striker.
McGregor knows that a win will earn him a title shot in Dublin and he will want to go out and make a statement in this fight. He is too fast, too rangey and too powerful for Siver. McGregor is an athlete full of confidence, fighting in his prime, with the skills to back it up. McGregor has looked incredible performing under an ungodly amount of pressure in Dublin and at UFC 178 and I have no doubt that he will come out and look incredible again in Boston at UFC Fight Night 59.
Siver struggled against a young, inexperienced prospect in his last fight and had to resort to taking him down and controlling him on the ground to grind out a win. McGregor is a different beast and I expect him to finish this fight early and then go on to toast “Football Stadiums and Title Shots” with Dana, Lorenzo and Uncle Frank.
If you’re living in Europe you can currently bet on this fight to end under 1.5 rounds at the superb value odds of 1.67 | -149 | 67/100 with Bet Victor.
I predict that Conor will come out, calm but focused and maintain range before landing something big on Denis Siver.
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MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on this fight to end under 1.5 rounds at odds of 1.62 | -161 | 31/50
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MATT VAN BUREN vs SEAN O’CONNELL
Sean O’Connell has had a tough time in the UFC, losing both of his fights in unfortunate circumstances. His first fight was against Ryan Jimmo, but he took the fight on short notice and was brutally knocked out in the first round. It later came to light that he was suffering with Bronchitis, but he managed to hide his illness from the UFC doctors. He then fought Gian Villante and was robbed by the judges. Gian Villante won the fight by split decision, but it looked more like a dominant win for O’Connell.
Sean O’Connell is one of those guys who has looked impressive in defeat and I expect his luck to change when he fights Matt Van Buren. If he shows up and fights like he did against Gian Villante, he should have no problem winning this fight.
Matt Van Buren likes to stay on the outside and use his reach to land strikes. This will suit Sean O’Connell, who likes to take the centre of the Octagon and apply constant pressure. I’m not too worried about Van Buren’s length, because O’Connell is very aggressive and he does a really good job of fighting his way inside.
Sean O’Connell is the type of fighter that I love to bet on, because he’s aggressive, he has a wrestling base and he also has really good striking. Matt Van Buren doesn’t have any advantages in this fight and Sean O’Connell can control where this fight takes place and he also has far more ways to win.
Van Buren is a little chinny and O’Connell hits really hard and he’s got excellent Boxing. The most likely outcome of this fight is O Connell winning by Knockout or TKO and at the very least he should be able to win this fight with aggression and Octagon control.
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Don’t forget to checkout my Premium Betting Tips for UFC Fight Night 59 – Conor McGregor vs Denis Siver.
MY BETTING TIP: 2.5 Units [2.5% of your bankroll] on Sean O’Connell to win this fight at odds of 1.62 | -161 | 31/50
Reach, macgregor has a 4 inch reach advantage and uses unorthodox striking and was undefeated before facing siver on 2 weeks notice and dropping 30 lbs to make weight. Rosa looked great in his fight and possibly could have won if not for octogon jitters, weight cut, and being outclassed in the power and experience arena. Why rosa is an important fight is his fighting style its very similar to mcgregor, and what I noticed is he attacked siver early to get the finish early as that is rosa mo. However he got hit by siver once and changed his strategy for the duration of the fight. I see mcgregor notice sivers power in the first and then recalibrate to adjust to get mid to late stoppage in the 3rd. As for reach, see the rosa fight, rosa had a 7 inch reach advantage and was a powerful unorthodox striker. Siver can negate that while fresh. McGregor has a 4 inch reach advantage and is a powerful striker. Siver has never been tkod in the 1st as a featherweight, only in the 3rd by cub swanson another powerful striker. Siver and mcgregor has one other factor, the trash talk. Siver seems very German russian about the whole thing, im not even sure he understands english well. McGregor was doing in ring trash talk to porier before he clipped him, although a small factor any advantage helps. Porier also had a bs 4 week camp. Siver has had 16 weeks of prep.This review doesnt jibe well with me, no offense, but you didn’t give any analysis as to why siver would all of a sudden wilt to mcgregor in less than 7 min. Too fast too rangey etc too powerful you could have said that about rosa, wiman, and swanson siver lasted way beyond 1.5 rounds. Give us meat, on the bones. This sounds more like what conner is putting out there with out any math done, as youve done on other picks.
By that I mean your analysis on other picks is more technical than this I it sounds like siver loses due to magic.
Hey man,
Hope you’re having a good day.
I’m really sorry that this pick wasn’t more specific.
I went back and watched some of Rosa’s fights and he’s good but he’s no where near top 10 level.
I believe the closeness of his fight with Siver was more down to the fact that Siver is rapidly declining at the age of 36, since he has stopped using TRT.
I actually believe that Sean Soriano will beat Rosa at UFC Fight Night 59 and Soriano is 0-2 in the UFC.
Poirier, Brandao and Brimage are all tough and they’re all young guys, but McGregor still managed to finish them all in the 1st round with his speed and power. Siver is 36 and he’s stopped using TRT, which means his cardio and ability to absorb damage will have declined significantly since his fight with Swanson.
Siver has been a striker his whole career and yet he chose to take Rosa down and control him on the ground. I believe that this is a clear sign that he is starting to lose his speed and reflexes and he’s trying to make adjustments to compensate for that.
Conor gets in and out so fast and he lands with such speed and accuracy. If he can finish Poirier inside a couple of minutes I really don’t see how Siver will be able to last much longer.
Like you said, Siver has never been finished in the 1st round, but we’ve seen how other fighters of a similar age have looked since they came off TRT. Bigfoot, Marquardt, Overeem, Henderson etc. They’ve all lost their speed and durability.
This bet is pre-empting that the same thing will happen to Siver and I Believe that his reluctance to stand and trade with Rosa is a clear indication that Conor will be able to blast him.
I’m really sorry I didn’t write all that in the original tip. Thanks for letting me know mate. I will definitely be more detailed in future!
If your assessment is based on trt. Read this
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2014/4/7/5589926/dennis-siver-admits-to-using-hcg-drops-prior-to-ufc-168
Hcg drops v trt , this might help clarify things
Thanks for the reply and assessment, means alot. Give me a shout out, after siver survives round 1. Dr. Medici.
Thanks alot mate, I really appreciate the feedback!
I will definitely be thinking of you if Siver comes out and starts to give Conor problems!!!
Good luck mate 🙂