The UFC should have called this event UFC Black Friday, because there’s an incredible amount of great value bets on this card! This means that I’ve got a total of 10 betting tips for UFC Fight Night 62 and I feel extremely confident that we’re going to make a killing this weekend.
If you read my website regularly, you’ll know that I don’t normally talk like this, so trust me when I tell you that we’re going to make a lot of money from these betting tips…
You can view 1 of my betting tips in this article for free and the remaining 9 tips can be viewed by Premium Members. Click here for more information on becoming a Premium Member.
Don’t forget to checkout my Premium Betting Tips for UFC Fight Night 62.
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DEMIAN MAIA vs RYAN LAFLARE
When you think of Demian Maia, you probably think of a high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu grappler, with a dangerous ground game and lethal submissions, but what is your opinion based on? Is it based on what you’ve seen him do in the Octagon? Or is it based on his highlight reels and the opinion that has been imposed upon you from watching promotional videos and listening to the media?
How many times have you heard Joe Rogan or Mike Goldberg talk about Maia’s World Class ground game?
If you keep hearing it and keep seeing it, eventually you’re going to start believing it.
The truth is, Demian Maia isn’t that dangerous on the ground any more. He might have been dangerous 10 years ago, but times have changed and it’s been a long time since he was choking people out with his high level Jiu Jitsu.
The fact is that Demian Maia has only won 1 fight by submission in his last 14 UFC fights. That means that he’s only picked up 1 win by submission in the last 6 years.
Before 2009, he competed in the UFC 5 times and won each of those fights by submission.
If this isn’t evidence that times have changed, I don’t know what is.
It’s also worth noting that Demian Maia has competed in 19 UFC fights, but only holds wins over 4 guys still competing in the promotion. Those wins have come against Alexander Yakovlev, Rick Story, Dong Hyun Kim and Ed Herman. This is perhaps a sign that the Welterweight landscape has changed considerably since Maia held a place in the top 10 rankings.
Demian Maia was dangerous back in 2008 when most of his opponents had a very basic ground game, but he’s not so dangerous against the next generation of MMA fighter who is well rounded.
Ryan LaFlare is the next generation and I don’t see how a 37 year old Demian Maia is going to be able to compete against the new age of Mixed Martial Artist.
I’m a huge fan of Demian Maia, but I can’t help but feel that he’s in a similar position to Royce Gracie, back when guys like Ken Shamrock and Kazushi Sakuraba developed grappling skills that enabled them to neutralize Gracie’s Jiu Jitsu threat. Sakuraba and Shamrock weren’t in the same league as Gracie when it came to Jiu Jitsu, but they didn’t have to be. They just needed to know enough to keep themselves out of trouble and that meant that Royce couldn’t beat them…
Demian Maia is obviously much more well rounded than Royce Gracie, but his advantages in Jiu Jitsu aren’t significant any more and this has always been his main weapon in the Octagon.
I’m not trying to say that Ryan LaFlare’s Jiu Jitsu is anywhere near as good as Demian Maia’s, but LaFlare has got a level of grappling that will enable him to stay competitive with the Brazilian on the ground.
If this was a 3 round fight, I’d be nervous about betting on LaFlare to win, because it’s possible that Maia could use his high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu to steal 2 out of 3 rounds with top control. The fact that this is a 5 round fight changes everything, because there’s simply no way that Maia is going to be able to win 3 out of 5 rounds against LaFlare. He doesn’t have the cardio, the skills or the output to defeat LaFlare over 5 rounds, not even in Brazil.
Maia’s cardio has looked terrible in his last few fights and it’s not going to get any better at 37 years old. It’s also worth noting that Maia hasn’t fought in 10 months, which is a pretty long lay off for a fighter this old.
Demian Maia is also coming into this fight on the back of a serious Bone and Blood infection that he suffered back in August. His condition was so serious, that his coach was unsure if he would ever be able to compete again. Part of Maia’s treatment for the infection was to have a blood transfusion and this will have had a massive impact on his long term health.
Demian Maia has said in interviews that he is fully recovered and that he feels great, but that’s what he’s supposed to say. Fighters are tough and he’s got a big ego. Fighters need to believe that they are bullet proof, or they wouldn’t be able to do what they do. When Demian Maia says that he’s fine, he believes he’s fine, just like when Cathal Pendred says he’s going to be a UFC Champion he believes it. Just last week Anthony Pettis was telling the world that he was going to become the greatest of all time. A few days later he got dominated by Rafael Dos Anjos, who was virtually fighting on one leg. The moral of this story? Don’t believe everything that people tell you…
It can take up to 2 years to fully recover from a blood infection and 6 months is simply not enough time to recover. Serious infections like this induce temporary periods of Chronic Fatigue Syndrome and ME and there’s no way that Demian Maia would be able to get back into full training until maybe 2 months ago, 3 months max and when he entered full training, there’s a good chance that he would have been massively out of shape from his illness. An infection of this nature would have caused him to lose his muscle mass, cardio, lung capacity, strength, basically everything that he had spent an entire career building up.
Demian Maia has struggled to fight at full capacity for more than 1 round in his most recent fights and after the challenges he’s faced in the lead up to this fight, I can’t see him being able to survive 5 rounds against LaFlare.
Ryan LaFlare fought at high humidity in Abu Dhabi in his last fight and he managed to maintain a high output for 15 minutes. He also took his fight against Court McGhee on just 1 weeks notice and fought at a relentless pace for 3 full rounds. It’s clear that he has cardio for days and Demian Maia will not be able to match his output for 5 rounds.
Maia has improved his striking significantly, but LaFlare has a good enough chin to take his best shots and a strong enough grappling game to hang with him on the ground.
LaFlare also has really good takedown defence, a strong clinch game and a powerful wrestling base. He might have trouble on the ground in the 1st couple of rounds, but after that, LaFlare should be able to secure top position and beat up on Maia.
I believe that Ryan LaFlare has the skills and toughness to weather Maia’s early storm, before going on to completely dominate this fight in the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds.
I don’t like the idea of betting against a Brazilian fighter in the main event of a Brazilian card, but this fight shouldn’t be close and I expect LaFlare to run through Maia after the first couple of rounds.
To protect us from making a big loss on this bet, I recommend that you place an insurance bet on Demian Maia to win in the 1st round. This is because Maia is at his most dangerous in the 1st round and he could catch LaFlare in something when they’re dry on the ground. Demian Maia always starts fights very aggressively and this insurance bet will go some way towards protecting us if Maia does manage to cause an early upset.
I believe that Ryan LaFlare should be closer to a 1.44 | -227 | 11/25 favorite. If this fight was taking place outside of Brazil, I’d cap him at around 1.33 | -303 | 33/100. This is why I feel that there’s a good amount of value on LaFlare at the current odds of 1.74 | -135 | 37/50…
Don’t forget to checkout my Premium Betting Tips for UFC Fight Night 62.
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MY FIRST BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Ryan LaFlare to win at odds of 1.74 | -135 | 37/50
MY SECOND BETTING TIP: 1 Unit [1% of your bankroll] on Demian Maia to win in the 1st round at odds of 8.75 | +775 | 31/4
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