UFC on FOX 15 is a difficult event to bet on because it’s packed full of fights that could go either way. I’m not saying that every fight is 50 / 50, but I do feel that every fighter competing at UFC on FOX 15 has a reasonably good chance of winning.
Despite these challenges I do have 6 betting tips for UFC on FOX 15 and a clear strategy for making money on this event. My plan is to bet similar stakes on certain fighters who I believe have a 70% – 80% chance of winning. This means that we will grind out a solid profit if more than 4 bets win. If everything goes to plan, we should make a nice profit on this event…
I decided to make my betting tip for the fight between Ovince St Preux and Patrick Cummins my free betting tip for UFC on FOX 15 because it feels like one of the most divisive fights on the card. I also wanted to share this betting tip because it’s one of the few fights in recent history where I’ve completely changed my opinion on how a fight will play out after watching a lot of footage on both guys.
If you like my breakdown for this fight and would like to read more, why not become a Premium Member? Premium Members gain instant access to all my betting tips for every MMA event, which includes my 5 additional betting tips for UFC on FOX 15. I’ve got a proven track record at winning money betting on MMA and your monthly membership will easily pay for itself…
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OVINCE ST PREUX vs PATRICK CUMMINS
When I first saw that Patrick Cummins was fighting Ovince St Preux, I immediately planned on betting on Cummins to win. Afterall, OSP was repeatedly taken down and controlled on the ground in a recent fight against Ryan Bader, so why should this fight be any different?
As I began to research this fight, I found myself favouring Cummins less and less and I found myself backing OSP more and more. I went from feeling confident that Cummins would win, to deciding it was best to pass on this fight, to eventually feeling like OSP was a great value bet at underdog odds…
You probably remember the Ovince St Preux vs Ryan Bader fight in a very similar way to how I remembered it. You probably visualize Bader repeatedly taking OSP down and controlling him on the ground. This is true to some extent, but Bader only started to get real success with takedowns midway through the third round, when OSP had started to gas. Prior to that the entire second round was contested standing up and in the 1st round OSP was able to easily get back to his feet on the few occasions that Bader managed to get him down.
Cummins vs OSP is a 3 round fight, which means we can’t really judge OSP on his takedown defence in the 4th and 5th rounds of his fight against Ryan Bader. Cummins might have a stronger wrestling pedigree than Bader, but it’s not going to be easy to take OSP down. Most of Cummins’ take-downs come from tieing his opponents up and OSP is extremely difficult to tie up.
OSP’s ability to punish his opponents when they try to close distance is very significant in this fight because Patrick Cummins has really poor striking defence and OSP hits EXTREMELY hard. It’s also worth noting that OSP holds a 4 inch reach advantage over Cummins and he fights out of the Southpaw stance. Cummins covers distance well, but OSP does a great job of circling out of danger, whilst maintaining a close enough distance to hurt his opponents when they’ve failed to tie him up. He did this several times against Bader, but Bader’s striking defence and footwork were solid enough for him to avoid getting knocked out. Cummins has woeful striking defence and his footwork is non existent. If OSP circles away from him and swarms him like he swarmed Bader, I don’t think Cummins is going to be able to avoid getting knocked out.
Patrick Cummins is also vulnerable because he’s a static target. He doesn’t use head movement to evade strikes and he doesn’t use footwork to move around the cage and stay light on his feet. Cummins is very easy to hit and I don’t see how he’s going to be able to get inside for a takedown without getting hit with something big.
Patrick Cummins also has very bad cardio and starts to fade in the second round of every fight. OSP is a huge guy, who is physically strong and has decent takedown defence. If OSP makes Cummins work for takedowns early in the fight, he’s going to reap the rewards later on when Cummins starts to fade.
I’ve been critical of Ovince St Preux in the past, but Patrick Cummins is a good match up for him. OSP is strong and athletic and he has the skills to keep significant periods of this fight standing. I’m not saying that Cummins won’t be able to take OSP down, but OSP only needs a small opening to knock Cummins out.
I personally feel that Ovince St Preux is an excellent bet at underdog odds…
Don’t forget to checkout the rest of my betting tips for UFC on FOX 15.
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MY BETTING TIP: 2 Units [2% of your bankroll] on Ovince St Preux to win at odds of 2.10 | +110 | 11/10
