Implied Probability Calculator
Use this tool to convert betting odds into their probabilities
What is Implied Probability?
We need to be sure that the risk is worth the reward whenever we place a bet. Calculating the Implied Probability of a bet enables us to do this more effectively. Implied Probability is simply the process of converting betting odds into probabilities.
When a Bookie sets the odds on a bet, he must first determine what chance he gives that bet of winning. This process is called “capping.” The Bookie must work out the probability that he believes a bet will win. He then sets the odds based on this probability.
It is beneficial for us to calculate what probability a Bookie believes a bet will win so that we can determine whether there is value in a bet. Calculating the Implied Probability of the odds enables us to do this.
How can I use Implied Probability to make money?
Whenever you are thinking of placing a bet, you should always ask yourself what chance you give that bet of winning. Do you give it a 10% chance? Maybe a 50% chance? You can then compare the probability you give the bet of winning against the probability that the Bookies think it will win by calculating the Implied Probability of the odds. This will enable you to see whether there is value in the bet or not. Using this kind of system will allow you to determine whether the risk is worth the reward.
Calculating the Implied Probability of betting odds is easy. Simply enter the odds into the Implied Probability Calculator on this page and then hit the “Convert” button. The Implied Probability of the odds will then be displayed in the “Probability” box.
Next, you’ll need to determine whether there is value in the bet you are thinking of placing. To do this, simply compare the Implied Probability with the chances you give that bet of winning. For example:
If you give Conor McGregor a 50% chance of beating George St-Pierre, but the Implied Probability in the odds is 30%, then your bet has value. This is because you believe that Conor has a higher probability of winning than the Bookies. Therefore the payout in the odds is more than it should be, so the risk is worth the reward.
If however, you believe Conor has a 50% chance of winning and the Implied Probability in the odds was 60%, then there would be no point in placing the bet because the payout in the odds would not be good enough to cover the risk implied in placing the bet.
The goal of making money in betting is to try and find bets where there is value. You should always convert odds into their Implied Probabilities so that you can determine whether or not you feel the payout from a bet is worth it. You need to find bets where you have a margin over the Bookies odds.