KSW 49 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

The UFC event this weekend is really bad for betting, so we now turn our attention to betting on KSW. I have found at least 1 rock-solid bet for this event, and I will continue to research this card in the hope that I will find more.

Please just remember that all promotions outside of the UFC are VERY low in liquidity. This means that the odds will differ widely between different betting websites. It also means that odds can change VERY quickly. By the time you have read this the odds on the betting tip below may have changed SUBSTANTIALLY.

Please also remember that not all betting sites will offer betting on KSW. So far LV Bet, Royal Panda, STS Bet, Bet2U, Unibet and 888 Sport are the only betting sites taking bets on KSW, but I expect more betting sites like target=”blank”>5 Dimes and William Hill to add it very soon. Sometimes betting sites do not list odds for smaller promotions until a few hours before the event is scheduled to start. Click here to visit the KSW TV website to find out what time this event is scheduled to start in your country.

I know that this is not ideal and I know that not everyone will be able to tail this betting tip or even tail it at the odds I have listed below. But I would prefer to give out this bet and help some people, than not to help anyone at all. There is enough people in our community to crash the odds hard on Askham, so please don’t be disappointed if you miss out on your opportunity to bet him. This is a long term game and long term we will continue to crush it betting on the UFC at much higher liquidity.

I will also be offering my Live Betting Tips for KSW to all Elite Members.

Fight Betting Tip Pick
Michal Materla vs Scott Askham 3 units on Scott Askham to win at odds of 1.70 | -143 | 7/10 Askham to win
Krystian Kaszubowski vs Roberto Soldic No bet Soldic to win
Damian Grabowski vs Karol Bedorf No bet Grabowski to win
Akop Szostak vs Erko Jun No bet Jun to win
Antun Racic vs Pawel Politylo No bet Racic to win
Martin Zawada vs Thiago Silva No bet Silva
Artur Sowinski vs Norman Parke No bet Parke to win
Luis Henrique vs Michal Andrysak No bet Henrique to win

Michal Materla vs Scott Askham Betting Tip and Prediction

Scott Askham and Michal Materla first fought around 1 year ago. Askham picked up an easy TKO win in just 1 minute after landing a nasty body kick. Take a look and see for yourself:

That fight ended so fast that it doesn’t really tell us much about how the rematch will play out, but I tipped Askham to beat Materla when they first fought at KSW 42 last year, and I feel even more confident in him now. Click here to check out my original betting tip for that fight.

Michal Materla is now 35 years old and in the tail end of his career while Askham is just 30 years old and making big improvements from fight to fight. Askham has been training at American Top Team for the last 2 years, and it is making a huge difference to his performances. I felt confident when we won our bet on Askham last year, and now we can bet Askham again with him having an extra year of improvements at ATT, while Materla is 1 year older and likely to be on a decline after more than 30 pro-MMA fights.

Scott Askham has the advantage almost everywhere in this fight. He will have a slight size advantage standing at 6 ft 3 over Materla who stands at 6 ft tall.

Askham will also have a significant advantage when it comes to striking. He fights out of the Southpaw stance and throws a wide range of strikes. He has vicious body and head kicks, and his Boxing is getting better and better with every fight. He also has decent striking defense and an excellent chin. He does a great job of fighting long, which should help him to evade the winging power hooks of his shorter opponent.

Michal Materla is a very basic striker, who wings hooks and only throws a low volume of strikes per round. If Askham can keep this fight standing, he should be able to outstrike Materla by a wide margin.

Michal Materla is primarily a wrestler and Askham is primarily a Kickboxer, but that doesn’t mean that Materla will have it all his own way if this fight goes to the ground. Materla tends to slow down as the fight progresses, which means he needs to manage his output. He doesn’t have the cardio to grind on his opponent’s or relentlessly shoot for takedowns, so on average you’ll only see him attempt 1 takedown per round. If his opponents stuff them, he quickly gives up on the takedown attempt and goes back to circling on the outside. If he does complete a takedown, his opponents are usually able to scramble back to their feet relatively quickly because he doesn’t have a heavy top game.

Scott Askham’s takedown defense isn’t bulletproof, but he is difficult to take down, and I’m sure he’s improving everyday training at ATT. It’s also worth noting that this is a 5 round title fight, so even if Materla can get some takedowns early in the fight, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to get Askham down in the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds when he starts to get tired. Askham has really good cardio, whereas Materla does tend to slow down a lot in the 3rd round.

It’s also worth noting that Materla doesn’t really do much on the ground. He just looks to lay and pray. He doesn’t threaten with submissions, and he doesn’t inflict that much damage with ground and pound.

This is one of those fights where a fighter’s popularity has influenced the odds in a big way. KSW is a huge promotion in Poland, and the Polish people love Michal Materla. Scott Askham should be a much bigger favorite here, but the casual betting public in Poland have screwed up the odds. I’m not complaining because I expect this bet to be an easy winner…

Reasons for betting on Scott Askham

  • Scott Askham is extremely tough. He has a great chin and never quits, no matter how badly he gets hurt.
  • Scott Askham has reasonably good cardio. At the very least it is good enough to match the pace that Materla may set.
  • Scott Askham is a long, technical Southpaw who knows how to use his reach to cause his opponent’s big problems.
  • Scott Askham does a great job of chipping away at his opponent with powerful body and leg kicks. These ultimately setup his head kicks that he can land with KO impact.
  • Michal Materla is a passive, low volume fighter. He throws a very low volume of strikes per round and rarely shoots for more than one takedown per round.
  • Michal Materla is very predictable. He telegraphs everything he is about to do.
  • Michal Materla has sloppy, low level striking.
  • Michal Materla gives his opponent a lot of space on the ground that enables them to scramble back to their feet.
  • Michal Materla is not that heavy or active from top position.
  • Scott Askham now trains at American Top Team and appears to be making big improvements from fight to fight.

Risk Factors with betting on Scott Askham

  • Scott Askham is weak off his back. He struggles to get back to his feet if his opponent can flatten out his shoulders on the canvass and secure top position.
  • Michal Materla has legit 1 punch KO power.
  • Michal Materla has home advantage.

My Betting Tip

Scott Askham to win

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.70
Moneyline = -143
Fractional = 7/10

38%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Scott Askham has a 38% chance of beating Michal Materla based on their current odds.

70%

Our Probability

We believe that Scott Askham has a 70% chance of beating Michal Materla based on our extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

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