UFC Betting Tips For UFC Fight Night 33 Australia

I’ve got 4 great value betting tips for UFC Fight Night 59, which includes a solid pick in the fight between Benson Henderson and Donald Cerrone. This is one of the best events to bet on in a long time and I feel very confident that we’re going to make a good profit from these betting picks. Don’t forget to stop by my MMA Betting forum and let me know what you think of my betting tips for this event… [divider]

BENSON HENDERSON vs DONALD CERRONE

When I first saw that Donald Cerrone had stepped up to fight Benson Henderson on short notice, I thought that he was crazy and given the circumstances, I instantly leaned towards Benson Henderson winning this fight. Henderson and Cerrone have actually fought twice before and Henderson won both times, but Donald Cerrone has changed a lot since then. Henderson’s grappling and power were the difference in their last two fights, but Cerrone has developed excellent take down defence and a superb ground game. I really feel that it will be very difficult for Henderson to control Cerrone this time around. It’s also worth noting that Cowboy hasn’t always been the positive athlete that we now know. There was a time when he often spoke about retirement and his distaste for fighting. It’s no coincidence that one of the lowest points of his career was when he was fighting in the WEC against the likes of Benson Henderson, but since then, Cerrone has worked with a sports psychologist and it has worked wonders for his mentality and also his skills as a fighter. He is now a completely different person and Cerrone attributes much of his recent success to the work that he has done with the sports psychologist. Taking this fight on just two weeks notice after competing for 3 full rounds is obviously a concern, but I don’t believe it will impact Cerrone all that much. Firstly, Cerrone has to be very healthy to have gained clearance to fight within the next couple of weeks. You get mandatory medical suspensions for almost any kind of injury after a fight, which means he must have come out of the Myles Jury fight completely unhurt. To put things into perspective for you, you can get 28 day medical suspensions for having minor cuts and bruises. The suspensions often restrict you from being able to train for 28 days and you’re often restricted from having any physical contact for at least 2 weeks. Cerrone didn’t pick up any kind of medical suspension for his fight against Myles Jury and this indicates that he is very healthy. Having reviewed recent footage of both these guys, I was surprised at how well Donald Cerrone matches up with Benson Henderson. Henderson likes to come forward and engage and he never stays on the outside or looks to counter strike. This will give Cerrone the opportunity to stand toe to toe with Henderson and do what he does best. Benson Henderson hasn’t used grappling to grind on his opponents for a long time and Donald Cerrone has the take down defence and ground game to keep this fight standing. Henderson has awesome kicks, but he doesn’t have the best Boxing and his striking defence is also relatively poor. Henderson doesn’t throw a high enough volume of strikes to outpoint Cerrone and I believe Cerrone is a significantly better striker than Benson Henderson. I believe that Donald Cerrone can keep this fight standing and beat Benson Henderson with damage and aggression. I’m only betting him small because a 32 hour cross country RV trip to Boston and a second weight cut in 2 weeks will be a challenge, but if anyone can do it, he can. Donald Cerrone matches up very well with Benson Henderson and skill for skill, I believe he has a great chance of winning this fight. The circumstances in which this fight is taking place do complicate things, but at underdog odds, I think Cerrone is a good bet… [adrotate group=”109″] MY BETTING TIP: 2 Units [2% of your bankroll] on Donald Cerrone to win at odds of 2.25 | +125 | 5/4 [adrotate group=”110″] [divider]

GLEISON TIBAU vs NORMAN PARKE

I’m a big fan of Norman Parke, but this is a really bad match up for him. His style of high pressure fighting would cause many fighters a problem, but it plays right into the strengths of Gleison Tibau. You might find yourself questioning that last sentence, because it’s a well known fact that Tibau has suffered with cardio issues in the past, but I can assure you that his cardio has improved a lot since he started training at American Top Team. If you take a look at Gleison Tibau’s MMA record you’ll notice that he has an unusual amount of split decision victories. Normally this would be a concern, but this actually highlights his superb fight IQ and his ability to steal rounds. If ever Tibau feels like he’s losing a round, he’ll use his powerful takedowns to get a fight to the ground and control his opponents for long enough to steal the round. Norman Parke’s fighting style centres around him walking his opponents down and pressuring them with a high volume of strikes. He has superb cardio and he can maintain a high output for 3 hard rounds, but he also catches his breath in fights by clinching with his opponents and controlling them against the cage. This style of fighting is perfect for Gleison Tibau, because he has solid counter striking which will enable him to stay on the outside and pick Parke apart. Norman doesn’t have the best striking defence and he relies more on his toughness, rather than footwork and head movement to avoid getting finished with strikes. Norman Parke has shown really strong grappling in his past fights, but he’s only faced low level grapplers and certainly no one on Gleison Tibau’s level. His tendency to constantly apply pressure and walk his opponents will cost him against Tibau, because it will leave him wide open to Tibau’s powerful double leg take downs. Parke has shown decent takedown defence so far in his career, but his rigid, upright fighting stance suggests that Tibau should easily be able to take him down. Norman Parke likes to fight in the clinch and control his opponents against the cage. This will suit Gleison Tibau, because the clinch is one of his strongest areas. Tibau is superb at securing underhooks and holding people against the cage and there’s no question that he is much stronger than Norman Parke. This fight will probably be close, but I feel very confident that Tibau will win for a few reasons… First of all, Norman Parke has pillow fists and Tibau will definitely land the more significant strikes. Parke also likes to control his opponents against the cage, but he won’t be able to do that against Tibau and I feel very confident that Tibau will be able to steal rounds with his takedowns, top control and cage control. It’s also worth placing a bet on this fight to go over 2.5 rounds. Norman Parke has fought to a decision in 4 out of his last 5 fights and Gleison Tibau has fought to a decision in 5 out of his last 7 fights. Both these guys are very durable and they’re both well rounded enough to avoid getting finished. I feel very confident that we’ll make a good profit from our bets on this fights. [adrotate group=”89″] MY FIRST BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Gleison Tibau to win at odds of 1.81 | -123 | 81/100 MY SECOND BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on this fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds at odds of 1.44 | -227 | 11/25

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CATHAL PENDRED vs SEAN SPENCER

Writing betting tips are always hard because I respect anyone who is brave enough to step into the Octagon. I have such a massive amount of respect for Mixed Martial Artists, but at the same time, I have to critique their fighting styles and predict who has the best chance of winning a fight. Take Cathal Pendred for example. He comes across as a really good guy, but you just can’t ignore the fact that he’s a terrible fighter. There’s just no getting around the fact that he’s looked really, really bad in his last two fights and yet by some miracle he managed to “win” both of them. His first fight in the UFC was against Mike King and he was getting completely destroyed until King wilted under the pressure of the Irish crowd. It was very strange to see Mike visibly quit in a fight where he looked so dominant. On the surface, Cathal’s comeback may have looked impressive, but if you go back and watch the fight, you’ll see that King was dominating until he quit. Cathal then went on to fight Gasan Umalatov and looked every bit as bad as he did in his first fight. This time, he tried to grapple f**k Umalatov for 3 rounds, but the Russian was a far more skilled grappler and he was able to stuff the majority of Pendred’s takedown attempts. Umalatov put on a striking clinic and boxed Pendred’s ears off for the majority of the fight, but the judges didn’t quite understand that counter striking was just as an effective form of Octagon control, as someone who walks their opponents down like a Zombie. Pendred was awarded the win, presumably for Octagon control, but he did absolutely nothing in the fight and looked terrible. Using Pendred’s last two fights as a measuring stick, he should get absolutely murdered by Sean Spencer. Sean Spencer is a former Golden Gloves Boxing Champion. He has powerful, fast hands, with superb footwork and head movement. Spencer also has really good takedown defence, which is aided by his training at Octagon MMA, which is home to several high level MMA grapplers. The Boston crowd will create an intimidating atmosphere for Spencer, but Spencer is no stranger to competing in hostile territories. Having already fought in Brazil twice, where he won on both occasions, Spencer should be fine dealing with Boston crowd, who will no doubt be rallying behind Cathal Pendred to win. Brazil is one of the most intimidating places to fight and Spencer put in the best performance of his career in his last fight against Paolo Thiago. This gives us evidence to suggest that he is comfortable fighting in front of a hostile crowd. Sean Spencer is only 25 years old and whilst he’s predominantly a striker, he’s also part of the new breed of MMA fighter who is good at everything. In case you hadn’t realised, I’m quite high on him and I believe he’s one of the prospects to watch in the UFC’s Welterweight division. Cathal isn’t capable of competing with Spencer in stand up exchanges, which means this fight will most likely consist of Spencer Boxing Cathal up, whilst Cathal tries to grab hold of Spencer and drag him to the ground. Spencer trains at Octagon MMA with some grappling beasts and he’s got good defensive wrestling and scrambles. He’s more than capable of keeping this fight standing and this should be one of the safest bets on the card, just so long as we don’t get screwed by the judges… [adrotate group=”89″] MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Sean Spencer to win at odds of 1.70 | -142 | 7/10 [adrotate group=”90″]