This is the 1st part of my 2014 review where I’ll be looking back over the last year to review my best bets, my worst bets, my luckiest wins and also my unluckiest losses. To kick things off, I thought I’d start with the painful task of going back through my results to pick out my worst bets.
It’s fair to say that I burned through a bit of money this year by placing some bad bets. Still, I like to think of my losses as an investment, because they give me an opportunity to learn from my mistakes and get better!
I’ve tried not to be too hard on myself in this article, but it was still tough looking at some of the mistakes I’ve made and I definitely wanted to punch my screen a few times.
Before I start a run through of the top 5, here’s a picture of a baby throwing money out of a window…
5. CARLA ESPARZA vs ROSE NAMAJUNAS [NAMAJUNAS TO WIN]
This bet wasn’t completely terrible because Rose Namajunas did look a lot better than anyone else on the Ultimate Fighter, but it was still dumb to bet on a 24 year old who was making their UFC debut in a title fight.
Rose had showed signs on the show that she didn’t have the right mentality to compete on the biggest stage, but I felt that her skills were enough to carry her through. Unfortunately, they weren’t and when she completely wilted under the pressure of the occasion and ignored the advice of her corner as she looked for a way out of the fight, I couldn’t help but face palm myself for making a bad bet.
I’m not sure whether Carla Esparza would have been a good bet either given the fact that Rose did look a lot better than her on the show, but still, betting on a 24 year old who had shown mental weaknesses before her fights on the Ultimate Fighter was not a good idea.
Carla Esparza had big fight experience in Invicta, she was tough as nails and she had solid wrestling. This wasn’t a terrible bet, but it was still bad and that’s why it enters at number 5 in my top 5 worst bets of the year!
You can checkout the original betting tip for this fight below. The confident tone of my writing makes me want to punch myself in the face. I was very confident that Rose would win this fight at the time of writing my betting tip, but looking back, I made a big mistake…
4. DHIEGO LIMA vs EDDIE GORDON [LIMA TO WIN]
I hate myself for this bet because nobody looked good on season 19 of the Ultimate Fighter and I shouldn’t have bet on Dhiego Lima just because he looked slightly better than everyone else.
I’m not going to beat myself up too much because Eddie Gordon didn’t look that great on the show and then he came out looking like an absolute wrecking ball against Lima, but looking back, this fight was 50 / 50 and I bet Lima at 1.63 | -158 | 63/100. It was a rookie move and a bad bet. I’m kicking myself over this one…
3. ALEJANDRO PEREZ vs JOSE QUINONEZ [QUINONEZ TO WIN]
I said at the beginning of this article that I see my losses as an investment, because they give me an opportunity to learn from my mistakes and get better. It’s no coincidence that 3 out of my 5 worst bets for this year are all on Ultimate Fighter match ups and you can bet you’re ass that I’m going to learn from this and make adjustments for 2015…
Nearly all of my losing bets on the Ultimate Fighter this year happened because either the person I bet on showed up and underperformed or the person they were fighting had improved massively since their time of the show. Fighters improve so much on the Ultimate Fighter that I guess it’s almost impossible to predict how they will look on the Finale and I’ve learned that I need to avoid putting too much stock on the performances on the show.
This particular fight was an example of someone who looked great on the show [Jose Quinonez] and looked a shadow of themselves in the finale. I bet on Quinonez to win at terrible odds and this was far too much juice to pay on an inexperienced fighter making their debut in the UFC against a more experienced opponent.
2. FABIO MALDONANDO vs STIPE MIOCIC [MALDONADO TO WIN]
The odds on Fabio Maldonado to beat Stipe Miocic were great, but looking back, there was nothing in his past performances that would suggest he could beat a guy like Stipe Miocic.
Maldonado was taking this fight on short notice and he was a weight class below Stipe. I got caught chasing big odds with this bet and it cost me big money. Just a horrible, horrible bet. The only thing that saved it from being my worst bet of the year is the fact that the odds on Maldonado were pretty huge…
1. ALEXIS DAVIS vs RONDA ROUSEY [OVER 2.5 ROUNDS]
When Ronda Rousey fought Alexis Davis, she had finished 8 out of her 9 previous opponents in the 1st round. The only person who had survived to the third round was Miesha Tate and that was probably because she already had experience competing against her before.
I believed that Alexis Davis could survive longer 2.5 rounds against the monster that is Ronda Rousey, because Davis is well rounded and tough as nails. Instead, the fight was over in just 16 seconds, as Rousey finished the fight with a series of strikes.
I believe that this bet was my worst bet of the year, because there was no hard evidence to suggest that Alexis Davis would be able to survive in the Octagon with Rousey longer than anybody else. This bet was dumb, stupid, horrible and a complete waste of money.