Over / Under Bets

This experiment forces Allsopp to bet on every main event fight on each Bellator and UFC card.

Reason for this experiment

At the beginning of every year, I go back over all of my bets from the previous 12 months to see if I can spot any opportunities to improve. Sometimes while evaluating my results, I’ll spot a trend of a particular kind of bet I seem to be losing money on or a specific type of bet that is generating good profits. I then reduce the number of bets I place that seem to be costing me money and increase the number of bets I am placing, which appear to be more profitable.

In January 2020, I went back over my results from 2019 and found that I’d done particularly well when betting on Main Event fighters.

As an experiment, I decided to go back and calculate what my profit and loss would be over the last few years if I hypothetically would have bet every main event fight dating back to 2016. I calculated the hypothetical bets based on my picks in each of the “Official Bet” articles, using an approximate stake based on my general betting strategy.

I found that if I had bet on every single UFC Main Event fight dating back to 2016, I would have made a profit every single year.

It is worth noting, however, that within a calendar year, I saw big swings. There were long winning streaks and long losing streaks. Therefore I do expect the results of this experiment to be quite volatile. If you’re an experienced gambler, this will be both logical and normal to you, but less experienced gamblers may not be prepared for the variance that is likely to characterize an experiment such as this. I want to make this clear at the very beginning of this experiment so that you do not declare it dead in the water if it gets off to a bad start. Like with any form of gambling, you need a good amount of time and, more importantly, repetitions of long term profitable bets in order to generate a sustainable profit.

Gambling is a marathon, not a sprint, and I am very excited to see what the result of this particular experiment will be after 12 months. I may actually run this experiment for longer due to fewer fights taking place in 2020 as a result of the Corona Virus.

Theory behind this experiment

My process for researching fights is so detailed that we only tend to lose bets for one of the following reasons:

  1. Bad judging decisions.
  2. Flash KOs.
  3. A fighter we bet against shows up with new skills that did not exist when we researched the fight.
  4. The fighter we bet on shows up and significantly underperforms.
  5. The fighter we bet on fights injured or gets injured during the fight which then impairs their performance.

We rarely bet on a fighter who loses because they were not skilled enough to beat their opponent. Some people may see this as an arrogant statement, but you have to take into consideration the work I’ve put in to get to this point in my Gambling career. I’ve been betting on sports for almost 20 years, and I’ve put in hundreds of hours at the Poker tables.

I commit to everything I do in life 100%, so when I say I’ve been betting on sports and playing Poker, I’m not doing these things casually. I’m constantly trying to learn, research, and get better and when it comes to sports, I obsess over my research to try and dig up any key piece of information that could give me an edge. My research process for MMA is the most meticulous out of all my strategies for making money from Gambling, and that’s why I am so confident in the process I use to research fights.

I’ve spent 30 to 50 hours a week studying fights for almost 10 years now, and when you spend that long doing anything, you get very good at it. If there is a path to victory for a fighter or a risk factor in betting them, I will identify it in my fight research 9 times out of 10.

The 30 to 50 hours I spend in front of my computer every week watching fights would be a complete waste of time if I didn’t identify all risk factors and reasons to bet a fighter without a high level of accuracy. Of course, there’s always room to improve, but if you do anything for 30 to 50 hours a week for 10 years, you’re going to get very good at it, and the longer you do it for the closer you’ll get to mastering your craft.

I am incredibly confident in my robust research process and my ability to turn a long term profit betting on MMA, but because of the amount of time we put into research, I always feel like we could be squeezing more money out of the bookies.

We only tend to lose prefight bets when something unpredictable happens, so I have a theory that the higher up in the sport you go, the more predictable the fights will become. This then should mean that we do better when we bet on main event fights. This is, of course, a theory, and I don’t know if it’s true, but this “Main Event Picks” experiment should answer that question.

I have a theory that the fighters that compete in Main Events are going to be the most consistent athletes in the UFC because consistency has enabled them to rise up through the ranks, rack up wins, and become worthy of headlining a card.

There are a lot of other reasons why Main Event fights should theoretically be more predictable than, for example, Prelim fights. Remember earlier on that we said the vast majority of bets we lose are due to unpredictable things happening? Well, the risk from many of these 5 factors should be greatly reduced in Main Event fights. Let’s explore each one so that you can see what I mean:

1. Bad Judging Decisions

Bad judging is, unfortunately, just a part of Combat Sports. There’s nothing you can do about getting robbed by the judges. If you bet on MMA or Boxing, it’s going to happen frequently, and it’s completely outside of your control.

Some people will brush this off by saying, “It’ll even out eventually,” but this is flawed logic. Getting robbed by the judges and then having it even out over a long period of time, could only happen if you are getting your money into marginal positions or weak positions an equal amount of times to how often you get your money into a strong position. Since we almost always get our money into the right side and have it in a strong position, bad judging will NEVER even out for us. It’ll only ever even out for bad gamblers who get their money into marginal/weak positions just as often as they get it into strong positions.

We can’t do anything about bad judging, but you’d expect bad judging to be less of a factor in Main Event fights because at least in the UFC, all main event fights are 5 rounds. This gives the superior fighter more time to exercise his advantages, more time to get a finish, and more time to put dominant rounds in the bank. These additional elements of a 5 round fight should, in theory, lead to less bad decisions than what we see in standard 3 round fights.

2. Flash KOs

Knockouts can happen in any fight and at any time, but at least when fighters make it to the main event level, they should be better defensively. They should also have better fight IQ, which should make it less likely they get caught with something crazy. Fighters that have worked their way up to the position of being able to headline a card should also be better conditioned and more experienced. This means that when they do get rocked or hurt bad, they have more chance of fighting through it and recovering. A less experienced fighter may not know what to do when they get knocked down or hurt badly. They may panic, which gifts the finish to their opponent or makes the situation worse.

3. A fighter we bet against shows up with new skills that did not exist when we researched the fight.

Knockouts can happen in any fight and at any time, but at least when fighters make it to the main event level, they should be better defensively. They should also have better fight IQ, which should make it less likely they get caught with something crazy. Fighters that have worked their way up to the position of being able to headline a card should also be better conditioned and more experienced. This means that when they do get rocked or hurt bad, they have more chance of fighting through it and recovering. A less experienced fighter may not know what to do when they get knocked down or hurt badly. They may panic, which gifts the finish to their opponent or makes the situation worse.

3. A fighter we bet against shows up with new skills that did not exist when we researched the fight.

Knockouts can happen in any fight and at any time, but at least when fighters make it to the main event level, they should be better defensively. They should also have better fight IQ, which should make it less likely they get caught with something crazy. Fighters that have worked their way up to the position of being able to headline a card should also be better conditioned and more experienced. This means that when they do get rocked or hurt bad, they have more chance of fighting through it and recovering. A less experienced fighter may not know what to do when they get knocked down or hurt badly. They may panic, which gifts the finish to their opponent or makes the situation worse.

3. A fighter we bet against shows up with new skills that did not exist when we researched the fight.

Knockouts can happen in any fight and at any time, but at least when fighters make it to the main event level, they should be better defensively. They should also have better fight IQ, which should make it less likely they get caught with something crazy. Fighters that have worked their way up to the position of being able to headline a card should also be better conditioned and more experienced. This means that when they do get rocked or hurt bad, they have more chance of fighting through it and recovering. A less experienced fighter may not know what to do when they get knocked down or hurt badly. They may panic, which gifts the finish to their opponent or makes the situation worse.

Over / Under Bets

wdt_ID Date Event Fight Bet Stake Odds Result
Date Event Fight Bet Stake Odds Result

Results