UFC 187 is packed full of heavy favourites that should easily win but this is MMA and anything can happen…
As a rule, I only ever bet on fighters with odds under 1.44 | -227 | 11/25 if I believe they have almost no chance of losing. There are a lot of highly skilled favourites competing at UFC 187, but I only feel 100% confident in 3 of them. This event is also strange because there’s not a single underdog on the entire card that I have considered betting.
I personally feel that UFC 187 is packed full of over priced favourites and underdogs who don’t have a realistic chance of winning. This makes betting on this event difficult, but I’ve still identified 3 fighters who should easily win. I fully expect to score our 3rd consecutive clean sweep in May and easily bank over 5 units of profit from our bets for UFC 187.
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RAFAEL NATAL vs URIAH HALL BETTING TIP
Uriah Hall is going to win this fight easily and it’s going to be a miracle if Rafael Natal makes it out of the 1st round.
Uriah Hall is very fast, very technical and very powerful and Natal is at risk of being knocked out in every single second of this fight. Natal showed in his last fight against Tom Watson that he’s made some improvements to his striking, but he’s not in the same league as Uriah Hall.
Rafael Natal is a significantly better grappler than Uriah Hall, but I don’t believe that he will get an opportunity to exercise this advantage because Hall has good takedown defence and Natal will be terrified of closing the distance against an accurate knockout artist like Hall. It’s also worth noting that Natal has very poor offensive wrestling. This is backed up by the fact that he has only successfully completed 38% of all takedown attempts across 12 fights in the UFC.
Some people in the MMA Betting Community have said that Hall is a risky bet because he has been a little flakey in the past, but I don’t agree with this. If we break down the circumstances surrounding each of his fights in the UFC, I don’t personally believe he’s been that flakey at all…
Lets take a look at how each of his 5 fights in the UFC have played out…
Kelvin Gastelum [Lost] – When Uriah Hall lost to Kelvin Gastelum it was a big upset and many people, including Dana White, criticized Hall for underperforming. Since then, Gastelum has gone on to look really good and this loss doesn’t seem all that bad now that we know what Kelvin is capable of.
John Howard [Lost] – This is the fight for which Uriah Hall draws the most criticism. I can’t defend him here. He totally flaked out and this was a bad fight and an even worse performance. Everybody has “off” nights and Hall was definitely “off” when he fought John Howard.
Chris Leben [Won] – Chris Leben is known for being incredibly tough and incredibly durable and yet Uriah Hall put such a beating on him that he verbally quit on the stool at the end of the 1st round. Leben is notoriously difficult to finish and over the years has seemed to get better the more you hurt him. When Chris Leben quit on his stool it was a sign to me that Uriah Hall is as legit as it gets.
Thiago Santos [Won] – Uriah Hall easily won this fight with one of the nastiest compound fractures I’ve ever seen in an MMA fight. Hall essentially won this fight with one of his toes hanging off for 2 whole rounds. He even threw kicks with his injured foot…
Ron Stallings [Won] – Ron Stallings took this fight on just one weeks notice, but he showed in his fight against Justin Jones that he’s extremely tough and extremely durable. Stallings has a solid Muay Thai background and he’s no scrub standing up. Uriah Hall absolutely destroyed him in this fight and violently finished him in under 2 minutes.
Uriah Hall is going into this fight on the back of a 3 fight winning streak and Rafael Natal is the perfect opponent for him to add another clip to his highlight reel. There are few things in MMA more frightening than a motivated Uriah Hall and I believe the following video confirms that Hall is going to come out and destroy Natal. I’d be very surprised if Natal makes it out of the 1st round…
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MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Uriah Hall to win at odds of 1.34 | -291 | 17/50
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JOSH SAMPO vs JUSTIN SCOGGINS BETTING TIP
Josh Sampo and Justin Scoggins are both going into this fight on the back of a 2 fight losing streak, but that’s where the similarities end…
Justin Scoggins is only 23 years old and he’s already very good. I personally believe that he’ll be a world champion and I don’t see any way in which he could lose to Josh Sampo.
Scoggins has decent takedown defence and this will be an easy fight for him if it stays standing. Scoggins is a completely different level of striker and his advantages standing up are multiplied by the fact that he’s very rangey and he fights out of the Southpaw stance.
Justin Scoggins has excellent striking technique and he has the speed of a natural Flyweight. Sampo on the other hand is very basic and slow.
Scoggins also has solid wrestling and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and he transitions from striking to grappling really well. Scoggins can win this fight wherever it takes place and I expect him to dominate Sampo on Saturday night.
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MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Justin Scoggins to win at odds of 1.29 | -345 | 29/100
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UFC 187 PICKS
