Bellator and WSOF are both putting on events this weekend and I’ll have betting tips for both of them. We kick things off with a betting tip for Bellator 135 – Warren vs Galvao.
The lineup of fights on this card is pretty weak, but I’ve found a solid bet which should earn us some money…
JOE WARREN vs MARCOS GALVAO
Joe Warren is a difficult opponent for any Bantamweight outside of the UFC, because he’s aggressive, he has cardio for days and he fights at a relentless pace. Warren is also a very strong wrestler who has competed at NCAA division 1 level and he’s won gold medals at the World and Pan American Championships.
Joe Warren’s gameplan is the same for every fight and he’s very predictable, but he’s still very difficult to deal with because he keeps coming forward and he doesn’t have any quit in him. I love betting on guys like Joe Warren because you know that they’re always going to bring it 110%.
Warren is one of the few fighters in the world who can fight at a relentless pace for a solid 25 minutes, which is extremely impressive considering he’s 38 years old. Normally I’d be worried that this work ethic and cardio would start to fade with age, but Warren seems to be getting better with every fight.
Almost all of Joe Warren’s fights are competitive in the early stages, but eventually he wears his opponents down and grinds out a decision. From watching all of Marcos Galvao’s recent fights, I haven’t seen anything that suggests the outcome of this fight will be any different…
Marcos Galvao is dangerous on the ground, but Warren is a wrestler and he has good takedown defence, strong positional control and excellent scrambles. It’s also worth noting that Galvao has never won a fight by submission, which is surprising considering he has a strong Jiu Jitsu base with 23 pro fights in his career. Galvao might have some success early in this fight because he does have solid ground control and high level Jiu Jitsu, but Warren does an excellent job of scrambling out of danger and it’s going to be really difficult for Galvao to maintain a dominant position for any period of time, without having to work really hard.
This is one of the few fights in Warren’s career where he has a striking advantage over his opponent. Galvao might hit hard, but he has poor technique and he doesn’t set anything up. His wild looping punches leave him open to being countered and he doesn’t throw a high enough volume of strikes to cause most Bantamweights a problem. Galvao essentially fights like a Heavyweight, which isn’t good because it often means he’s behind on the judges score cards when fights stay standing. To sum it up, Galvao’s striking is very basic and whilst Warren doesn’t have the best striking either, he does cover distance well and he certainly throws a much higher volume strikes. Galvao tries to head hunt and doesn’t land with enough volume to score points on the judges scorecards. If Warren chooses to keep this fight standing, he should win easily.
In order to stay competitive with Warren for 5 rounds, your cardio has to be on point and whilst Galvao has never shown any signs of having cardio issues, it’s still tough to train for a 5 round fight against an opponent like Warren, who fights at such a relentless pace. Galvao relies on being able to conserve energy in fights by dominating rookie opponents who don’t have a ground game anywhere near his level. This enables him to control them and catch his breath. It makes it easy for him to conserve energy, because the fight is taking place on his terms. He won’t have this luxury against Warren and he’s going to have to constantly battle to secure, maintain and improve position. Galvao has never had to do this in any of his previous fights and his low volume style of fighting suggests that he’s going to find it hard to keep up with Warren’s output.
Joe Warren is the Bellator Bantamweight Champion and he’s already beaten tougher guys than Marcos Galvao in his two previous title fights. Warren has vastly improved his striking, he’s aggressive and he has cardio for days. He should be able to grind out a win against Galvao by using his strong wrestling base to wear Galvao down and control him for significant periods of this fight.
The best odds on this fight can be found at 5 Dimes.
MY BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Joe Warren to win at odds of 1.59 | -169 | 59/100