UFC Betting Tips For UFC Fight Night 33 Australia

UFC 183 is a great event for betting and this is reflected by the 7 betting tips that I have for this event. My wide range of tips for UFC 183 include bets on underdogs, solid favourites and good value prop bets. I feel very confident that my bets for this event will help us finish January with a solid profit. Don’t forget to stop by my MMA Betting forum and let me know what you think of my betting tips for this event… [divider]

KELVIN GASTELUM vs TYRON WOODLEY

**NOTICE** Unfortunately, Kelvin Gastelum recently secured a sponsorship deal with McDonalds, which caused him to miss weight for this fight by 10 pounds. **NOTICE** Since his diet of Chicken Nuggets and Big Macs will have badly impacted his cardio, I now advise you to hedge out of this bet. You can “hedge” out of your bet on Kelvin Gastelum by betting a big enough stake on Tyron Woodley to cover your bet on Kelvin. For example: The odds on Tyron Woodley currently sit at 1.90 | -110. So if you bet 3.5 units on Gastelum, you only need to bet 4 units on Tyron Woodley to cover a potential loss on Gastelum. If Woodley wins, you’ll make a profit of 0.1 units. If Gastelum wins, you’ll make a small loss. I’ve only ever had to do this once with you guys before, when Charles Oliveira missed weight against Nik Lentz. Please don’t hesitate to contact me if you’d like some advice on hedging out of your bet. Take care and I hope you have a great weekend. When I first saw the odds for this fight I thought they were way out of whack. I was convinced that I would be placing a bet on Tyron Woodley at underdog odds, but my opinion on how this fight would play out soon changed when I started to watch Gastelum and Woodley’s recent fights. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Kelvin Gastelum is a nightmare match up for Tyron Woodley and I believe he has an extremely good chance of winning this fight. This is largely down to the fact that Woodley struggles with high pressure fighters and Gastelum fights at an extremely high pace. I have no doubt in my mind that Tyron Woodley can take Gastelum down, but Gastelum has excellent cardio and very good scrambles and there’s no way Woodley will be able to control Gastelum without gassing. He may be able to control Gastelum in the 1st round, but after that he’s done, he doesn’t have the gas tank to maintain the output he needs to win 2 out of 3 rounds against Gastelum. Woodley is known for his knockout power and whilst he is certainly capable of knocking Gastelum out, I do feel that it’s relatively unlikely for a few different reasons. First of all, Gastelum never stops moving, he’s always light on his feet and he’s very difficult to time. This makes it difficult to land anything significant on him. He’s got that trademark Alliance MMA footwork and he looks better with every single fight. I also feel the knockout is unlikely, because Gastelum fights out of the Southpaw stance. This means that he’ll naturally be moving away from Woodley’s power right hand. Tyron Woodley might be a better wrestler, but I give Kelvin Gastelum a significant advantage when it comes to striking. Over his last few fights he has shown excellent, technical striking and he mixes up his punches, kicks and combos extremely well. In his last couple of fights he has used crisp and powerful body and leg kicks to slow his opponents down and I believe Kelvin’s body kicks will be a key to victory in this fight, because it will help him to slow Woodley down. I’ve already said that Kelvin Gastelum is a high pressure fighter and Woodley’s fight against Rory MacDonald taught us a lot about how badly Woodley reacts to pressure. In order to beat high pressure fighters, you have to match their output and you have to be able to back them up. Woodley doesn’t have the volume or aggressive fighting style required to slow down a guy like Kelvin Gastelum and I feel he has to knock Gastelum out in order to win this fight. Kelvin Gastelum is 9 years younger than Tyron Woodley and he has shown significant improvements everytime we have seen him compete in the UFC. I haven’t been his biggest fan in the past and I’m not sure if he’s going to live up to his hype, but styles make matchups and he’s got a great chance of beating Woodley. [adrotate group=”132″] MY BETTING TIP: Hedge out of your bet on Kelvin Gastelum. Bet enough on Woodley to cover your stake on Kelvin. Please don’t hesitate to contact me if you need advice doing this. MY HEDGE BET: 4 units on Tyron Woodley at odds of 1.90 | -111 | 9/10

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JORDAN MEIN vs THIAGO ALVES

I’m betting on Jordan Mein to win this fight because I believe he’s better than Thiago Alves everywhere. He has a big advantage when it comes to striking and he’s also a better grappler if he’s able to get this fight to the ground. Jordan Mein is a very rangey fighter and he does a great job of getting in and out of his opponent’s range without taking significant damage. Mein’s biggest strength is utilizing his range and this will be even easier to do against Thiago Alves, because Mein holds a 5 inch reach advantage over Pitbull. Mein throws a much wider range of strikes than Thiago Alves and he also possesses extremely good striking defence. If he can keep circling away from Thiago Alves and keep his back off the cage, it’s difficult to see a way in which Alves could win this fight. Thiago Alves like to walk his opponents down and land powerful combinations and leg kicks, but it won’t be easy to close the distance against Mein, who likes to stay on the outside and use his range to pick his opponents apart. In order for this fight to even be close, Mein has to show up and underperform and Alves has to put in one of the best performances of his career. However I am only betting 2.5 units on this fight because Mein does have a habit of getting dragged into dogfights and Alves is always dangerous. [adrotate group=”32″] MY BETTING TIP: 2.5 Units [2.5% of your bankroll] on Jordan Mein to win at odds of 1.74 | -135 | 37/50

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IAN McCALL vs JOHN LINEKER

Ian McCall has fought to a decision in 9 out of his last 11 fights, making him extremely tough to finish and at the same time not much of a finisher himself. Some of these decisions include 3 and 5 round fights against some of the best guys in the world including Demetrious Johnson, Joseph Benavidez and Dominick Cruz. John Lineker is a powerful striker but Ian McCall is tough as hell and he’s survived to a decision against some of the biggest power punches in the UFC’s Flyweight and Bantamweight divisions. McCall’s durability is largely down to his elusive fighting style and his exceptional footwork. He does a great job of constantly moving and using footwork to stay out of his opponents range. This makes it really difficult for his opponents to time him and land anything significant. John Lineker is equally difficult to finish, having only been finished 3 times in 31 professional fights. This record is even more impressive when you take into consideration the fact that he has competed in higher weight classes for the majority of his career. McCall is the favourite in this fight, but his fights are always close and John Lineker is a dangerous opponent for anyone in the UFC’s Flyweight division. I’m not sure who’s going to win this fight, but I am confident that it will last longer than 2.5 rounds… [adrotate group=”74″] MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on this fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds at odds of 1.57 | -182 | 11/20

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RAFAEL NATAL vs TOM WATSON

If you go back and watch Watson and Natal’s last few fights, you’ll notice that they’re both heading in very different directions. Natal has become slow and predictable, whilst Watson has been showing improvements in every fight since he started training in the United States. Tom Watson now trains with Greg Jackson and his training at a top MMA camp has enabled him to tighten up the one weakness that has plagued him throughout his career – takedown defence… In truth, takedowns and the risk of lay and pray is the only real threat that Natal poses to Watson and whilst Watson may have improved his takedown defence significantly over the last couple of years, I’m not going to try and kid you into believing that Natal won’t be able to take him down. What I do know is that Watson possesses extremely good scrambles and Natal’s takedowns become significantly more predictable and a lot easier to stuff, if you can survive the 1st round. Rafael Natal has very poor cardio and he slows down significantly after the 1st round. I believe that Watson can make Natal work hard enough for the takedown in the 1st round, that Natal will gas out, making it harder to secure takedowns in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the fight. Rafael Natal secures most of his takedowns from the clinch, which is one of Watson’s strongest positions. Watson does an extremely good job of stuffing takedowns from this position and he also does an excellent job of landing signficant damage from the clinch. I believe that Tom Watson will win this fight, because Natal fades after the first round and Tom Watson has a high pressure fighting style that will cause Natal to fade even faster. Natal’s main threat is his takedowns, but his takedowns become slow and predictable past the 1st round and Watson has good enough takedown defence to neutralize this threat when Natal starts to get tired. Rafael Natal likes to fight on the outside, which isn’t the best strategy for him to use because he’s not an effective counter striker. This will suit Tom Watson’s fighting style, because Watson likes to take the centre of the Octagon and chip away at his opponents. This chemistry between both fighters favours a bet on Watson, because he will likely score points throughout the fight for controlling the centre of the Octagon. If this fight was taking place anywhere else in the world, I’d be a little nervous about it, but this fight is taking place in Las Vegas and Nevada judges have repeatedly punished lay and pray tactics over the last 12 months. Natal’s only hope of winning this fight is lay and pray and I feel that Watson’s aggressive fighting style will score more points with the Nevada judges if this fight goes to a decision. I also like feel like Tom Watson is a good bet at underdog odds, because he has excellent fight IQ. It’s almost like he has a virtual score card in his head and you’ll see him make adjustments in fights to ensure he is constantly ahead on the scorecards. If someone lands something big on him, he’ll make sure he lands something even bigger and if someone takes him down, he’ll get back up as quickly as possible and he’ll fight extremely aggressively until the takedown is negated. You don’t see a lot of fighters do this, but Tom is excellent at it and you can see that he’s always trying to win fights. [adrotate group=”127″] MY BETTING TIP: 1.5 Units [1.5% of your bankroll] on Tom Watson to win at odds of 2.55 | +155 | 31/20

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DIEGO BRANDAO vs JIMMY HETTES

I believe that Diego Brandao will win this fight, but I also believe that a that bet on this fight not to go to a decision is better than betting on Diego Brandao to win straight. This is because this bet has slightly better odds and it also gives us an extra chance of winning if Brandao gasses out and quits like he’s done in the past. Diego Brandao and Jimmy Hettes are both aggressive, they both fight at a high pace and they’ve both been known to look for ways out of a fight when the going gets tough. I really like this bet, because I feel that there’s an extremely good chance this fight finishes inside the distance. [adrotate group=”38″] MY BETTING TIP: 1.5 Units [1.5% of your bankroll] on this fight not going to a decision at odds of 1.67 | -149 | 67/10 [adrotate group=”39″]