UFC 184 is reasonably good for betting which means I’ve got a total of 3 Premium Betting Tips for this event. This is the last MMA event in February and I feel very confident that we’re going to finish the month with a profit. There are a lot of risky match ups taking place at UFC 184, but I believe I’ve found 3 fights where guys hold significant advantages over their opponents.
Don’t forget to stop by my MMA Betting forum and let me know what you think of my betting tips for this UFC 184…
GLEISON TIBAU vs TONY FERGUSON
Gleison Tibau is frequently involved in close fights because he doesn’t have the output or aggressive style of fighting to break his opponents down or dominate on the judges score cards. Tony Ferguson is the complete opposite, because he fights at a relentless pace and I don’t believe that Tibau will be able to match him.
I believe that this is a relatively easy fight for Tony Ferguson and I also believe that there’s a lot of extra value in the odds. I would have made Ferguson around a 1.25 | -400 favourite, so I consider the current odds of 1.50 | -200 to be excellent value.
Gleison Tibau is going to struggle if this fight stays standing, because Ferguson throws a much higher volume of strikes and he also has a strong enough chin to take Tibau’s best shots. Ferguson should be able to walk Tibau down, pick him apart and use his 5 inch reach advantage to stay out of Tibau’s striking range. Tibau is a powerful puncher, but he doesn’t set anything up with combo’s or feints and I don’t think he’s going to be able to deal with Ferguson’s high pressure style of fighting.
Gleison Tibau has excellent takedowns, but Ferguson has some of the best takedown defence in the UFC’s Lightweight division, having defended 80% of all takedown attempts in his 8 UFC fights. Ferguson also possesses excellent scrambles and he should be able to stuff the majority of Tibau’s takedown attempts or quickly scramble back to his feet if he does end up getting taken down.
Gleison Tibau struggled with bad cardio earlier in his career and whilst it appears his gas tank has improved a lot over the last couple of years, I also believe that his improved cardio is a direct result of Tibau’s ability to make his opponents fight at his pace. He won’t be able to control the pace of the fight against Ferguson, because Ferguson keeps pressing forward no matter what you throw at him.
In Tibau’s fight against Piotr Hallmann, he really struggled to deal with Hallmann’s constant pressure and Ferguson fights at a much higher pace than Hallmann.
Ferguson’s aggression and high pressure style of fighting will be the difference in this fight and I feel that there’s a really good chance that Ferguson will overwhelm Tibau and win this fight inside the distance.
MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Tony Ferguson to win at odds of 1.50 | -200 | 1/2
DHIEGO LIMA vs TIM MEANS
Dhiego Lima struggles against aggressive opponents who push the pace of a fight and Tim Means is a high pressure fighter who never gives his opponents a second to breathe. This is a really bad match up for Lima and he’s going to struggle to deal with the relentless pace that Means sets.
I love betting on fighters like Tim Means, because they’ll almost always get the nod on the judges score cards if they’re involved in a close fight. Judges just love guys who fight aggressively and control the centre of the Octagon and this is just one of the reasons why I’m finding it hard to see a way in which Dhiego Lima could win.
Tim Means has better striking than Dhiego Lima and he should be able to walk Lima down, stand in the pocket and win this fight by landing a higher volume of strikes.
Lima tends to go for takedowns if he’s struggling in stand up exchanges, but these takedowns come from the clinch and Means is very strong from the clinch position. Means generally has good takedown defence and he should easily be able to stuff any type of takedown attempt that Lima can throw at him.
Lima has looked very poor in his last 4 fights and I don’t believe that he’s on the same level as Tim Means. Means should be able to win this fight by outworking Lima and landing the more significant strikes.
MY BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Tim Means to win at odds of 1.82 | -122 | 41/50
JAMES KRAUSE vs VALMIR LAZARO
James Krause stuggles against fighters who close the distance and prevent him from fighting at range, but Valmir Lazaro is not that type of opponent.
Krause excels against guys that give him the time and space to fight with freedom and Lazaro is the exact type of opponent to bring out the best in Krause.
Lazaro is far too tentative and predictable to cause Krause a problem and Krause should easily be able to stay out of Lazaro’s range and beat him by landing a higher volume of strikes.
Here are a couple of Lazaro’s most recent fights…
These fights may have taken place back in 2013, but Lazaro has only fought twice since then and he didn’t show many signs of improvement in his UFC debut against James Vick.
Krause lost his last fight against Jorge Masvidal back in September, but the fight went the distance and it gave us an opportunity to learn a lot about Krause. What we learned is that he’s got a good gas tank, a good chin and he’ll keep fighting until the very end, even when it’s clear that he’s second best everywhere.
This fight should be a straight forward striking battle and Krause is a much better striker. Lazaro doesn’t throw a high enough volume of strikes to outpoint Krause and Krause has a good enough chin and good enough striking defence to take Lazaro’s best shots and still keep coming.
MY BETTING TIP: 2 Units [2% of your bankroll] on James Krause to win at odds of 1.58 | -172 | 29/50