UFC Fight Night 61 is a great event for betting because it’s packed full of fights in which Brazilians have clear advantages over their opponents. Events like this are always good for making money because Brazilian fighters win around 70% of the time when they fight against Non Brazilian fighters in Brazil. As a result, I’ve got a total 4 Premium Betting tips for this this event and I feel very confident that they’re going to help us bank a good profit.
Don’t forget to stop by my MMA Betting forum and let me know what you think of my betting tips for this UFC Fight Night 61…
EDSON BARBOZA vs MICHAEL JOHNSON
I’ve been critical of Edson Barboza in the past, but he’s looked incredible in his last few fights and he’s making big improvements everytime we seem him compete in the UFC. He’s entering this fight having only lost once in his last 6 fights and with home advantage on his side I favour him to beat Michael Johnson.
Edson Barboza throws a very high volume of strikes and he should have no problem staying on the outside and outstriking Johnson. Johnson has the better wrestling, but I don’t believe that he’ll be able to use it against Barboza, because Barboza has some of the best takedown defence in the UFC’s Lightweight division, having defended 84% of all takedowns within 11 UFC fights.
Michael Johnson fights out of the Southpaw stance which would normally be an advantage, but I believe that fighting out of the Southpaw stance against Barboza isn’t necessarily a good thing. When Orthodox and Southpaw fighters stand opposite each other, their bodies are wide open to the power offensive leg of their opponent. Edson Barboza has some of the most devastating body and leg kicks in the UFC and Johnson will be wide open to Barboza’s kicks since he fights out of the Southpaw stance. He’ll also naturally be moving towards Barboza’s power right leg, which will increase the impact and make it harder to block kicks.
Here is a diagram that illustrates this more clearly. As you can see, Michael Johnson’s body will be facing into Barboza’s power right leg. This makes his body and lead leg an easy target for Barboza’s devastating kicks…
It’s also worth noting that Johnson often stands very heavy on his lead leg as he tries to cover distance. This will open him up to Barboza’s fight ending leg kicks.
I believe that Michael Johnson has to win this fight inside the distance because he won’t be able to outstrike Barboza, he won’t be able to take him down and I seriously doubt that he’ll be able to win a decision in Brazil. It’s possible that Johnson could win this fight by knockout because Barboza’s chin is questionable, but Barboza has only been knocked out twice in 17 MMA fights and we can’t hold those 2 knockout losses against him forever.
Edson Barboza has looked incredible in his last few fights and I believe that he will win this fight by staying on the outside and blasting Michael Johnson with his fight ending kicks. With home advantage on his side, I believe that he is a great bet.
MY BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Edson Barboza to win at odds of 1.64 | -156 | 16/25
CEZAR FERREIRA vs SAM ALVEY
Sam Alvey has a punchers chance in this fight and that’s about it. Cezar Ferreira is simply better than him in ever single aspect of Mixed Martial Arts.
When you break this fight down and evaluate all the possible outcomes, it’s clear that Alvey’s path to victory is very narrow. He just doesn’t throw a high enough volume of strikes to outpoint Ferreira and he has a very basic ground game with very poor takedown defence.
Sam Alvey appears to have serious knockout power, but that’s mainly because he’s a Southpaw and most of his knock outs have come against opponents who fight out of the Orthodox stance. Cezar Ferreira also fights out of the Southpaw stance, which means that it’s much less likely that Alvey will be able to knock Ferreira out.
Southpaws often appear to have more knockout power than they actually do, because 70% of fighters fight out of the Orthodox stance. This means that Southpaws will be fighting against Orthodox stanced opponents in the majority of their fights and Orthodox stanced fighters will naturally be moving into the Southpaw’s power left hand. Ferreira and Alvey both fight out of the Southpaw stance, which makes a knockout in this fight a lot less likely.
When you have 2 Southpaws fighting each other, you often find that striking battles are awkward and tentative. This is because Southpaws aren’t used to fighting fellow Southpaws. You very rarely see knockouts in Southpaw vs Southpaw fights and more often than not they go to a decision. Cezar Ferreira is a more comfortable striker than Alvey and he throws a higher volume of strikes, which means he should easily be able to win this fight standing up. Alvey fights very flat footed and he has very poor takedown defence which puts him in danger against Ferreira who has solid takedowns and a strong ground game.
Sam Alvey looked awkward and out of his depth in his last fight in Australia. I’m not sure if that’s because he had an off night, because he doesn’t travel well or because he’s just not that good. Either way, I don’t like his chances of causing an upset in Brazil against a Brazilian fighter who is better than him everywhere…
MY BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Cezar Ferreira to win at odds of 1.34 | -294 | 17/50
ADRIANO MARTINS vs RUSTAM KHABILOV
The odds for this fight are crazy because there’s no way that Adriano Martins should be this big of an underdog against Rustam Khabilov, especially since this fight is taking place in Brazil. I can only assume that a lot of casual bettors have blindly added Khabilov to their parlay accumulators, which has pushed the odds up on Martins.
A bet on Martins returns a profit of over 400%, which is pretty insane when you take into account how close this fight could be…
Khabilov is the faster striker and he throws a higher volume of strikes, but his striking isn’t elite and Martins is an experienced fighter with very solid Muay Thai. Khabilov likes to stay on the outside and counter strike, which will suit Martins who likes to take the centre of the Octagon and walk his opponents down. I love betting on guys when they can hold the centre of the Octagon and have home advantage on their side, because this gives judges another reason to score the fight in favour of the home town fighter. It’s pretty bad that we have to look at fights in this way, but I can think of many fights where the counter strikers have been punished against more aggressive opponents, even though they clearly landed the higher volume of strikes.
Khabilov is a very reactive striker and Adriano Martins fights out of the Southpaw stance. We often see Orthodox stance fighters strike more tentatively when they go up against Southpaws and I believe that this creates an opportunity for Martins to keep the stand up exchanges competitive. Khabilov will also be circling into Martins power kicks and punches, which opens up the potential for a knockout. Martins has shown in his past fights that he possesses knockout power and Khabilov doesn’t have the best striking defence.
I also feel that Adriano Martins has a great chance of winning this fight because Khabilov frequently takes his opponents down. This will suit Adriano Martins who is a high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Black Belt, who has won multiple World Titles in Jiu Jitsu. Khabilov doesn’t have the best control once he gets his opponents down and if Martins can transition to a dominant position, Khabilov could be in big trouble. Historically, Sambo based fighters have struggled off their back and Martins has World Class Jiu Jitsu with nasty ground and pound. This fight is going to get real interesting if it goes to the ground and I’m not convinced that Khabilov is going to be able to get the better of the grappling exchanges.
Adriano Martins now trains at American Top Team, whilst Khabilov has left Jackson’s MMA to go back and train in Russia. I’m not sure if this is going to play a factor in this fight, but I consider American Top Team to be one of the best MMA gyms in the world. Jorge Masvidal trains at ATT and he came really close to beating Rustam Khabilov just a couple of fights ago. Masvidal and Martins are now training partners and I’m hoping that Masvidal and the ATT coaches will be able to use their experience of fighting Khabilov to put together a gameplan which could see Martins win.
With home advantage on his side and an aggressive, crowd pleasing fighting style I believe that Martins has a great chance of beating Khabilov. If Martins can keep this fight close, it’s very unlikely that the Brazilian judges will score the fight in favour of Khabilov. At odds of 5.10 | +410 | 41/10, I feel that Martins is a great bet.
MY BETTING TIP: 1 Units [1% of your bankroll] on Adriano Martins to win at odds of 5.10 | +410 | 41/10
CODY GIBSON vs DOUGLAS SILVA
Cody Gibson has lost 2 out of his last 3 fights in the UFC, but I’ve been really impressed with him so far. Douglas Silva is a dangerous opponent with vicious knockout power, but he’s a static target and I feel Gibson should easily be able to win this fight if he can just avoid getting clipped in the first round.
Douglas Silva is a coiled spring, with devastating knockout power, but he’s muscular and slow and he’s going to get tired very fast if you start to make him work.
Cody Gibson fights at a relentless pace and he’s very well rounded. He should be able to outstrike Silva and work him against the cage, to make him less dangerous the longer the fight goes on.
Douglas Silva is your typical head hunting type of fighter, who tries to land that killer knockout punch. As a result, he doesn’t throw a very high volume of strikes and he doesn’t set anything up. Cody fights at an extremely high pace and Douglas Silva’s frame indicates that he’s not going to be able to cope with that style of fighting.
Cody Gibson is only 27 years old and he’s never been knocked out. Silva telegraphs his power strikes and Cody does a pretty good job of getting in and out of striking range.
Cody should be able to win this fight by grinding on Silva early, which will make him considerably less dangerous in the second and third rounds. I hate betting against Brazilians when they’re fighting in Brazil, but Cody Gibson has significant advantages in this fight and I feel he’s a decent value bet at 1.44 | +410 | 41/10.
MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Cody Gibson to win at odds of 1.44 | -227 | 11/25