UFC Fight Night 62 is an incredible event for betting and I fully expect to make a killing this weekend. I’ve got a total of 10 betting tips for this event, which is more than I’ve ever had for any other MMA event before. Every once in a while an event like this will pop up, where Nick Kalikas hasn’t done his homework properly and we can swoop in and profit from his mistakes. We’re going to win BIG MONEY on this event and you can take that to the bank!!!
There’s an insane amount of value on this event and for that reason I expect the odds to crash over the next couple of days. For that reason, I decided to post my betting tips for UFC Fight Night 62 early, so that you can go out and get maximum value from the odds.
Here are my betting tips for this event…
ERICK SILVA vs JOSH KOSCHECK
Erick Silva’s chaotic style of fighting means that he’s normally a very risky bet. This is backed up by the fact that he has never won 2 UFC fights in a row. His aggressive style of fighting means that he has to put himself in constant danger and he often pays for that with his consciousness.
Taking risks isn’t a good long term strategy in any combat sport, but aggression and pressure is and Erick Silva is extremely good at fighting aggressively and pressurizing his opponents.
Josh Koscheck looked nervous and tentative in his recent fight against Jake Ellenberger and he’s going to get totally wasted if he fights like that against Silva.
Erick Silva has extremely dangerous striking and he’s even more dangerous on the ground. He’s better than Josh Koscheck in every single aspect of Mixed Martial Arts [apart from Wrestling] and I’m finding it really difficult to see a way in which Koscheck could win this fight.
Koscheck only has a punchers chance of beating Erick Silva and whilst Silva has been knocked out in the past, he also showed in his fight against Matt Brown that he’s incredibly durable.
If this fight stays standing, I feel it’s only a matter of time before Koscheck gets finished with strikes. If this fight goes to the ground, Koscheck is going to face a submission clinic and I’m not sure if his wrestling base will be enough to protect him from getting submitted.
Josh Koscheck is now 37 years old and with home advantage on Silva’s side, I believe it’s only a matter of time before Koscheck becomes a permanent feature in Silva’s highlight reel.
MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Erick Silva to win at odds of 1.26 | -387 | 13/50
LEONARDO SANTOS vs TONY MARTIN
Tony Martin should be a 1.40 | -250 | 2/5 favourite in this fight, but instead he opened up as a 2.40 | +140 | 7/5 underdog. I don’t know what the hell Nick Kalikas’ was thinking when he set the odds for this fight, but he’s got them totally wrong.
Many people bet on MMA by using the fighter’s MMA records to predict the most likely outcome of a fight and I also believe that Kalikas sets the odds for many fights using this method. I mean, how else could he gets things so badly wrong? This fight is the perfect example of how using that strategy can get you in trouble…
Leonardo Santos is a terrible fighter. He’s got worse fight IQ than Patrick Walsh and he’s not very good at anything.
Tony Martin is one of those young, hungry, well rounded beasts that trains at American Top Team. He’s aggressive, he’s got good striking, he’s got strong wrestling, he’s got good takedowns, he’s got solid Jiu Jitsu and it’s tough to see any way that he losses this fight.
If this fight stays standing, Santos will get mauled. If this fight goes to the ground, Leonardo might have some early success, but eventually Martin will gain top position and destroy him.
Many people have said they’re reluctant to bet on Martin because of his poor cardio, but this type of comment only illustrates the fact that they haven’t done their homework properly.
I don’t believe that Tony Martin has bad cardio at all and even if he did, Leonardo Santos has some of the worst cardio in the Lightweight division. If Martin shows any sign of slowing down, it won’t matter, because Leonardo Santos will have slowed down more.
Martin appeared to have cardio issues in his fight against Rashid Magomedov, but he broke his ribs in the first round of that fight and still managed to take the fight to a decision. He then dominated Beneil Dariush in the first round of their fight, before adrenaline dumping and getting submitted in the second round. His most recent fight was against Fabricio Camoes in Brazil and Martin ran through Camoes like he was nothing.
Camoes, Dariush and Magomedov are all better fighters than Santos and Martin’s experience of fighting in Brazil should help him put in an impressive performance at UFC Fight Night 62.
Martin should easily be able to overwhelm Santos with his pressure and aggression and I can see Martin finishing this fight by knockout in the 1st or 2nd round.
Santos is a dangerous submission grappler, but he has zero takedown skills and Martin has strong defensive wrestling. If Martin wants to keep this fight standing, he can.
Tony Martin is 10 years younger than Santos and he has the skills and athleticism to dictate where this fight takes place. Santos can’t take Martin down, he doesn’t have knockout power, he doesn’t have very good striking and he doesn’t have the cardio required to compete with Martin on the ground. As a result, I’m finding it tough to see any way that Santos could win this fight.
Tony Martin has only been training in combat sports for 3.5 years and he’s already good at everything. At just 25 years old, I believe Martin is a legit prospect who could develop into a top 10 Lightweight by the time he’s 30. I expect Martin to put in an impressive performance and dominate this fight. He’s definitely one to watch…
MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Tony Martin to win at odds of 2.10 | +110 | 11/10
AMANDA NUNES vs SHAYNA BASZLER
Shayna Baszler wilted under the pressure of fighting Julianna Pena on TUF and then she wilted under the pressure of fighting Bethe Correia in her UFC debut. Her track record at staying composed on the big stage isn’t good and I feel there’s a really good chance that she’s going to wilt under the pressure of fighting Amanda Nunes with 10,000 Brazilians all chanting “You are going to die”.
Amanda Nunes has an incredibly aggressive style of fighting and she’s well rounded. In many ways, she’s very similar to Erick Silva, except that she has better takedowns and offensive wrestling.
Shayna Baszler has dangerous submissions, but that’s about it. If this fight stays standing, Nunes should be able to destroy Baszler with her vicious Muay Thai striking. If it goes to the ground, she should be able to secure top position and finish Baszler with her devastating ground and pound.
Amanda Nunes is 8 years younger than Baszler, with home advantage on her side. Her style of fighting is extremely aggressive and Baszler has shown throughout her career that she doesn’t deal well with opponents who push the pace.
This is one of the few female fights which I don’t believe will go the distance. Nunes will either finish the fight early with her trademark 1st round onslaught or she’ll get the job done when Baszler starts to gas out in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.
Nunes should easily beat Baszler…
MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Amanda Nunes to win at odds of 1.28 | -357 | 7/25
ANDRE FILI vs GODOFREDO PEPEY
I am a big fan of Andre Fili and he’s helped us to win good money in the past, but this is a dangerous fight for him.
I’m not going to try and convince you that Andre Fili is a better fighter than Pepey, because he’s not, but we all know that the best fighter doesn’t always win in MMA and I believe that there are several intangibles at work in this fight, which give Pepey a great chance of winning.
The one criticism I have about Andre Fili, is that he takes far too many risks and this can cost him against a guy like Godofredo Pepey, who is dangerous from every position. Andre has a wide open style of striking, which means he’s very vulnerable to a knockout and whilst he does have strong wrestling, he’s still very green on the ground when it comes to grappling awareness.
I believe that home advantage will play a huge factor in this fight. Andre Fili has fought and won in Brazil back in October, but his performance wasn’t as good as what we’ve seen from him when he’s competed in America and the Brazilians absolutely LOVE Godofredo Pepey. I don’t know why Pepey is so popular with the Brazilians, but they really get behind him, which makes for an extremely intimidating atmosphere for his opponents. When Fili fights Pepey on Saturday night he’ll be met with the sound of 10,000 Brazilians chanting “You are going to die!”. It takes many, many years before a man can be comfortable in this situation and I don’t believe many fighters could compete to their full potential under these conditions.
I also don’t like how Fili is always talking about girls, eating Pizza and hitting the clubs when he posts on Social Media websites. This type of lifestyle is never good for an MMA fighter and it always catches up with you. Pepey is absolutely going to bring it 100% in this fight and if Fili’s not ready for that, he’s going to get hurt.
Fili has already shown signs that he may not have the best conditioning and this could be a direct result of the poor choices he makes when it comes to his diet and his lifestyle. If you study his fights closely, you’ll notice that he always gasses out in the second round. He hides this well by taking his opponents down and catching his breath from top position, but he’s going to struggle against guys that stuff his takedowns or make him work hard to stay on the ground.
I believe there’s a good chance Fili gets sucked into a dogfight standing up and if that happens, there’s a good chance Pepey comes out on top. Pepey is a lethal submission grappler and he’s very dangerous off his back and I don’t feel confident at all the Fili can spend 15 minutes on the ground with Pepey and not get caught in something.
Pepey doesn’t have the best takedown defence, but he’s extremely active off his back and Fili’s going to have his hands full if this fight goes to the ground. I believe Pepey’s activity on the ground and high pressure style of fighting has the potential to push Fili harder than he’s every been pushed before. This relentless pace could pay dividends for Pepey and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Brazilian won the last 2 rounds when Fili starts to fade.
Pepey is never going to be a high level fighter, but he’s always going to be dangerous when he fights in Brazil. He’s reasonably well rounded and his high output and aggressive style of fighting means that he’s always going to be competitive in a fight.
The quality of MMA judging in Brazil has improved significantly over the last 18 months, but if a fight is close, the Brazilian fighter is always going to get the advantage on the judges scorecards.
At odds of 3.4 | +240 | 261/100 I believe that Pepey’s a great value bet.
MY BETTING TIP: 1 Unit [1% of your bankroll] on Godofredo Pepey to win at odds of 3.61 | +261 | 261/100
AKBARH ARREOLA vs FRANCISCO TRINALDO
I have no idea why the over 1.5 rounds betting line is being offered on this fight because Francisco Trinaldo and Akbarh Arreola are both well rounded and both difficult to finish.
Trinaldo has fought to a decision in 6 out of his last 7 fights and whilst Arreola does have a bunch of 1st round wins on his record, most of those wins came from catching low level grapplers in basic submissions.
Francisco Trinaldo has a solid ground game and he was able to survive 3 rounds on the ground with Michael Chiesa, even though Chiesa was able to catch Trinaldo in full mount and back control for significant periods of their fight. Chiesa is a lot more dangerous than Arreola on the ground and I don’t see him being able to finish Trinaldo with a sub, when Chiesa couldn’t get the job done.
A knockout in this fight is also very unlikely, because both guys are tough and they both have reasonably good striking defence.
This betting line is an absolute gift and I’d be extremely surprised if this fight finished under 1.5 rounds.
MY BETTING TIP: 3 Unit [3% of your bankroll] on this fight to last longer than 1.5 rounds at odds of 1.57 | -175 | 57/100
KATSUNORI KIKUNO vs KEVIN SOUZA
I’ve seen Puppies with better striking defence than Katsunori Kikuno. This guy is bad and he loves to block punches with his face. Kikuno doesn’t move his head, he doesn’t keep his hands high, he doesn’t utilize any footwork and he doesn’t block anything. His unorthodox Karate stance might have earned him some success on the regional Japanese MMA circuit, but he’s going to get mauled by any half decent fighter in the UFC.
Kevin Souza is an explosive striker with solid left and right straight punches. He also has an 8 inch reach advantage in this fight, which will make it easy for him to stay out of Kikuno’s range and slip his punches right through Kikuno’s non existent defence.
Souza is very aggressive and he uses his range well. He scored an impressive knockout win over Mark Eddiva in his last fight and Eddiva is a much better fighter than Kikuno.
Kikuno is a static target and doesn’t move around anywhere near as much as he needs to, in order for his style of fighting to be effective. Souza on the other hand does a great job of working angles and cutting off the cage.
It’s also worth noting that home advantage will be huge in this fight, because Japanese fighters don’t tend to perform well outside of Japan and they especially don’t perform well in Brazil…
I believe that Souza should have been close to a 1.30 | -300 favourite, which means we’re getting a good amount of value on this bet. This is a perfect match up for Souza and he should dominate this fight.
MY BETTING TIP: 3.5 Unit [3.5% of your bankroll] on Kevin Souza to win at odds of 1.50 | -200 | 1/2
CHRISTOS GIAGOS vs JORGE DE OLIVEIRA
Jorge de Oliveira has poor takedown defence and a non existent ground game. Christos Giagos is a strong wrestler, with excellent takedowns and a dangerous submission game. Giagos should easily be able to take Oliveira down and destroy him on the ground.
Jorge de Oliveira is one of those guys who is only fighting in the UFC because he was a local fighter available to fight at short notice when someone got injured on a UFC card. When this happens, the UFC always gives the guy stepping up a 2 or 3 fight contract, as a thank you for stepping in on short notice and taking a beating. This happened to Oliveira when he stepped up to fight Dhiego Lima on short notice in Brazil, when Pawal Pawlak got injured.
You’ll probably remember Oliveira as the guy that looked like the Vampire Slayer “Blade”, I guess it’s just a shame he doesn’t fight like him. In fact, Jorge de Oliveira is so bad, that I’d probably bet on Wesley Snipes if ever they got into a fight.
Christos Giagos is aggressive, he has decent striking and he’s a beast on the ground. He should easily be able to take Oliveira down and win this fight by submission or ground and pound. It really is as simple as that.
Don’t be fooled into thinking home advantage will play a factor in this fight because Giagos has already fought in Brazil against Gilbert Burns and it didn’t seem to throw him off his game. Even if home advantage was a factor, Giagos only needs to performs half as good as I’ve seen him perform in previous fights, in order to beat Oliveira.
I also like a bet on this fight to end under 2.5 rounds because Oliveira’s only path to victory is a lucky knockout and I feel there’s an extremely good chance that Giagos finishes this fight with ground and pound or a submission.
Jorge de Oliveira is a complete rookie on the ground. He doesn’t secure guard, he doesn’t look to scramble, he doesn’t look to transition and he probably doesn’t even know how to attempt a submission, let alone lock one in. This is the only Brazilian I’ve ever seen fight in a cage, who has absolutely no Jiu Jitsu skills whatsoever.
It’s also worth noting that Oliveira looked really bad on the ground when he fought back in November and at 35 years old it’s unlikely that his skills are going to improve. Christos Giagos is 10 years younger than Oliveira, which gives him another huge advantage in this fight.
This is a really, really, really easy fight for Giagos and an absolute gift from the UFC. I hope Giagos buys Joe Silva a nice Christmas present, because he’s hooked him up big time with this fight.
MY FIRST BETTING TIP: 3 Unit [3% of your bankroll] on Christos Giagos to win at odds of 1.52 | -194 | 13/25
MY SECOND BETTING TIP: 1 Unit [1% of your bankroll] on this fight to last less than 2.5 rounds at odds of 2.15 | +115 | 23/20