2015 has been a slow year for betting on MMA, but that’s about to change because UFC Fight Night 63 kicks off a series of events that are packed full of match ups between experienced fighters. These are the kinds of events that are easy to make money on, because experienced fighters tend to be more consistent.
I’ve got 3 Premium Betting Tips for UFC Fight Night 63 and I feel really confident that they’re all going to win, because we’re betting on guys who consistently show up and fight to their full potential. This event is the first in a brand new month and I feel really confident that we’re going to kick off April with a win.
Don’t forget to stop by the forum during the event, because we’ll all be there to help each other make money betting from live betting…
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MICHAEL CHIESA vs MITCH CLARKE
Mitch Clarke is a decent fighter, but Michael Chiesa is considerably better than him everywhere.
Chiesa is one of those guys that appears to have got really good in a really short space of time. Chiesa has always been a strong grappler, but now that he’s become comfortable striking, he presents a difficult challenge for most Lightweights outside of the top 10 rankings.
A strong grappling base has always been a solid starting point for MMA and Chiesa has now evolved into a well rounded fighter.
Clarke has decent striking, but Chiesa is more active, more aggressive and fights out of the Southpaw stance. Clarke doesn’t have the power or output to slow Chiesa down and it’s tough to see a way in which Clarke could come out on top of the striking exchanges.
Chiesa has dangerous submissions and strong grappling control and Mitch Clarke is going to have his hands full if this fight goes to the ground. Chiesa has better top control and wrestling than Mitch Clarke and his stellar submission defence will enable him to stay out of trouble and control Clarke on the ground.
This should be an easy fight for Michael Chiesa.
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MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Michael Chiesa to win at odds of 1.28 | -357 | 7/25
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LAUREN MURPHY vs LIZ CARMOUCHE
Lauren Murphy only started training in Martial Arts a few years ago when she took her son to a Jiu Jitsu class. Whilst there, she decided to sign up for the adult class and fell in love with BJJ. A couple of years later she started to compete in Mixed Martial Arts and has been fighting with a BJJ grappling base every since.
Murphy has an impressive MMA record of 8-1, but all of her wins are against very low level opponents. She faced a large step up in competition when she started to fight in Invicta and this is further highlighted by the fact that she has been completely dominated in her last two fights against Sara McMann and Miriam Nakamoto. Murphy has got to this point in her career with hard work and determination, but she shows all the signs of someone who came into Martial Arts far too late and this isn’t good…
Lauren Murphy has the spirit of a Warrior, but she doesn’t have the skills to back it up. Her striking is very basic and her movement is very awkward. On the ground she’s got a decent guard, but she lacks takedown defence and scrambles, which means she often has to fight off her back.
Liz Carmouche doesn’t have great striking, but she has a significantly better stand up game than Murphy. If this fight stays standing, Carmouche should easily be able to out-strike Murphy to a unanimous decision victory.
Carmouche has a sizable advantage standing up, but I still expect her to try and take this fight to the ground. Murphy has poor takedown defence and struggles to secure dominant positions. This means that Carmouche should easily be able to over power her and secure top position. Murphy struggled to deal with Sara NcMann’s physicality in her last fight and this is largely down to the fact that Murphy is not athletic. Liz Carmouche is very physically strong and Murphy will have a hard time dealing with her physicality.
Liz Carmouche has experience fighting against some of the best Bantamweights in the world and that will make fighting against inexperienced opponents like Lauren Murphy a lot easier. Don’t forget that Carmouche has come closer to beating Ronda Rousey than anyone else. Carmouche’s rear naked choke was so nasty in her fight against Rousey, that Ronda said she could actually feel her jaw dislocating.
I expect Carmouche to take Murphy down and control her from top position for significant periods of this fight. Murphy might be 8-1, but she’s got some improving to do before she can hang with the best female Bantamweights in the UFC.
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MY BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Liz Carmouche to win at odds of 1.89 | -112 | 89/100
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CARLOS DIEGO FERREIRA vs DUSTIN POIRIER
Carlos Diego Ferreira has struggled to deal with Southpaws and opponents who pressure him throughout his career. This makes Dustin Poirier a nightmare opponent, because Poirier is a natural Southpaw who puts constant pressure on his opponents.
Carlos Diego Ferreira has decent striking, but he’s not a natural and he doesn’t have the technique to cause most experienced fighters a problem. His Wanderlai Silva style bum rushes may look exciting on TV, but most high level guys will be able to identify when he’s about to rush in and circle out of the way.
Ferreira’s base is his high level Jiu Jitsu, but he lacks the wrestling, clinch work and takedowns to get his opponents to the ground. Poirier has really good takedown defence and excellent scrambles and I feel it’s very unlikely that Ferreira will be able to keep Poirier on the ground for long enough to catch him in anything.
It’s also worth noting that Ferreira is an extremely high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Black Belt, but Dustin Poirier was submitting Black Belts when he was just a Blue Belt. I’m not saying that Poirier is going to be able to submit Ferreira, but I am saying that he’s comfortable enough on the ground to identify danger and avoid getting caught in a sub. Poirier is very comfortable and competent on the ground and I’m not worried about him getting taken down or controlled by Ferreira.
Carlos Diego Ferreira has also shown a lack of experience and poor fight IQ in many of his fights. He either starts really slow and losses the first couple of rounds, or he goes flat out and fights very aggressively in the 1st round, which causes him to slow down and gas out in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of a fight. Poirier doesn’t have this problem because he is very aggressive and he has the cardio to back it up.
Carlos Diego Ferreira is also a submissive fighter, who tends to go into a defensive shell when his opponents apply pressure to him. If you come forward and take the fight to Ferreira, he’ll become very tentative, put his back against the cage and turn into a counter striker. I’m almost certain that Poirier’s aggressive style of fighting will cause Ferreira to go into this defensive shell, which should make this a relatively easy fight for Poirier.
Ferreira doesn’t have the striking or takedowns to cause Poirier too much of a problem and Poirier has the takedown defence and wrestling to keep this fight on his terms.
Poirier should be able to win this fight by applying constant pressure and breaking Ferreira down. I don’t believe that Ferreira has the skills to cause Poirier a problem, or the cardio to match his pace for 15 minutes.
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MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Dustin Poirier to win at odds of 1.56 | -179 | 14/25
