I’ve got 3 Premium Betting Tips for UFC Fight Night 71 and I expect each of them to win. My strategy for this event is to bank a decent sized profit by betting on 4 solid favourites who hold huge advantages of their opponents. There are a lot of inconsistent fighters competing at UFC Fight Night 71 and whilst I do have strong leans towards a few of them, I’ve decided to play things safe and stick to betting on 4 guys who I trust will show up and perform to their full potential.
JOSH THOMSON vs TONY FERGUSON BETTING TIP
Josh Thomson is 37 years old and he keeps talking about retirement. Last night on Twitter he even thanked all of his sponsors for supporting him throughout his career. His messages wreaked of an athlete who has reached the end of the road and when guys start talking about retirement it’s time to start betting against them.
You might be able to get away with coasting in other sports and hanging around for an extra couple of years, but there are no hiding places in MMA. If you are not fully committed to this game you will get hurt.
Tony Ferguson is the worst type of opponent to face if you’re questioning whether you still want to be a professional fighter because he’s great at everything and he brings a violent chaos to the cage that will push you to your absolute limits. You do not want to be in the Octagon with a guy like Tony Ferguson unless you’re fully committed, because he’s going to be in your face trying to hurt you for every single second of the fight.
Josh Thomson is not aggressive enough to cause a guy like Tony Ferguson a problem. His inactivity has always been his biggest weakness and that will play right into the hands of Ferguson, who likes to take the center of the Octagon and apply constant pressure.
Thomson has been involved in a lot of close decisions throughout his career and that’s because he lacks the ability to finish fights or leave a lasting impression on the judges score cards. This is largely down to the fact that he likes to counter strike. He’s a very reactive fighter and it’s very hard to win a fight going backwards unless you finish a guy or throw a very high volume of strikes to outpoint your opponent beyond all reasonable doubt.
Tony Ferguson should be able to win this fight by outworking Josh Thomson. This shouldn’t be too hard because Thomson is very inactive. He’s always trying to outpoint his opponent with pitter-patter strikes or look for that one fight ending strike that almost never comes. This will play right into the strengths of Ferguson, who is a lot more active and loves to hold the center of the Octagon. Thomson is more than happy to stay on the outside and counter strike, but it’s really hard to win a fight using that strategy when you’re going up against a more aggressive fighter.
Tony Ferguson has never been finished with strikes. This is pretty impressive when you take into consideration the fact that he has fought a few heavy hitters and he’s got 21 pro fights under his belt. He’s also incredibly tough and incredibly durable. He suffered a bad injury in the 1st round of his fight against Michael Johnson and hung in there until the very end. Ferguson is really tough and I just don’t feel that Thomson finishing him inside the distance is a realistic outcome.
What I like about Tony Ferguson is that he’s constantly moving forward and controlling the center of the Octagon. It’s almost impossible to back this guy up. He never takes a backwards step and in order to beat guys like that you need to be able to slow them down or outstrike them beyond all reasonable doubt. I don’t believe that Thomson can finish Ferguson inside the distance because he just doesn’t have the power and I don’t believe he can outstrike him either because Ferguson lands around 30% more strikes per minute.
If this fight stays standing, Ferguson should be able to walk Thomson down and blast him with strikes. I’m not saying that Thomson won’t be able to use his superior technique to land on Ferguson, but I don’t think it will be enough to win the fight. Ferguson also has a 5 inch reach advantage, which should make it a little bit easier for him to stay out of Thomson’s range.
Josh Thomson has shown flashes of good grappling throughout his career, but we don’t see it very often. This is largely down to the fact that he has poor offensive wrestling having only completed 39% of all takedown attempts under the Zuffa banner. Tony Ferguson has some of the best takedown defence in the Lightweight division and his high level Jiu Jitsu is enough to cause Thomson all kinds of problems on the ground. Danny Castillo was able to smother Ferguson for large periods of their fight, but Castillo has much better grappling control than Thomson. You do not want to be on the ground with a high level 10th Planet Jiu Jitsu guy like Tony Ferguson unless you can control him and hold him in the same position. Thomson will not want nothing to do with Ferguson on the ground.
You also have to take into consideration the fact that Josh Thomson is now 37 years old and Tony Ferguson is currently competing in his prime. There’s a 6 year age gap in this fight, which gives Ferguson a huge physical advantage.
Very few fighter’s are able to win fights counter striking unless they can finish their opponent inside the distance. MMA judges are just more geared towards scoring fights in favour of aggression and Octagon control. I don’t agree with the way MMA is judged, but I guess it saves guys like Cathal Pendred from having to work in McDonalds. Tony Ferguson should be able to win this fight by controlling the center of the Octagon and outworking Thomson in any area that this fight takes place.
MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Tony Ferguson to win at odds of 1.55 | -183 | 11/20
ALAN JOUBAN vs MATT DWYER BETTING TIP
It’s pretty clear that the UFC hate Matt Dwyer because they keep matching him up with opponent’s who will almost certainly cause him brain damage. I don’t know why the UFC hates him so much, but it’s pretty clear he’s done something to piss them off. Anyone who has ever seen Matt Dwyer fight will know that this kid is a knockout waiting to happen. He literally cannot block a bunch. I’ve seen Penguins with better striking defence than Matt Dwyer. This guy should not be trading punches with professional fighters and yet the UFC keep matching him up against MURDERERS.
I mean… They gave him Albert Tumenov in his DEBUT… ALBERT TUMENOV!!! What kind of debut opponent is that??? That would be like making Ruan Potts fight Junior Dos Santos in his debut. How is that fair? Dan Kelly got to fight Luke Zachrich in his debut, Cathal Pendred got Mike King and that crap blonde haired Brazilian juice head that calls himself “Blade” got to fight Dhiego Lima. How is matching Matt Dwyer up with a guy like Albert Tumenov responsible match making? The kid can’t block a punch and Tumenov brutally knocked him out in under a minute.
Now they’re making him fight Alan Jouban? Are you f***ing kidding me? Jouban is going to knock this guy out faster than you can say “Can I have a Big Mac with a large fries and a Coke please mate?”. Dwyer is so F***ED it’s unbelievable.
Look at this video from just over a year ago which shows Dwyer taking on DaMarques Johnson. Dwyer suffers about 3 concussions in less than 10 minutes. He practically walks into knockouts. His opponents don’t even have to try to hit him. It’s like his face is a magnet to his opponent’s fist.
I accept that Dwyer won his last fight against William Macario by knockout, but that doesn’t change anything. Dwyer needed a miracle to beat Macario and he got it. Macario was the worst possible style of opponent and Dwyer was destined to receive another concussion, but God was looking over him and he was able to land a Hail Mary punch. I doubt he’s going to get that lucky again.
Alan Jouban is very, very good. He’s fast, he’s well rounded and he fights out of the Southpaw stance. He also throws a diverse range of strikes and he’s very durable. I just don’t know what Dwyer can do to win this fight unless he lands another hail mary punch. In situations like this it’s important to remember that lightning rarely strikes twice and it’s unlikely that Dwyer lands another miracle knockout on a guy like Jouban who fights out of the Southpaw stance and has a good chin. Don’t forget that Orthodox stanced fighters like Dwyer are significantly less likely to knock someone out that fights out of the Southpaw stance, because the Southpaw naturally moves away from the power right hand of their Orthodox stanced opponent.
This is another fight in a long list of squash matches taking place this week. There’s just no way that Alan Jouban and Matt Dwyer should be sharing the same Octagon. Dwyer is totally screwed. He doesn’t stand a chance.
MY BETTING TIP: 10 Units [10% of your bankroll] on Alan Jouban to win at odds of 1.24 | -425 | 6/25
JAMES MOONTASRI vs KEVIN LEE BETTING TIP
There’s a lot of hype behind James Moontasri right now, but he lacks two basic skills that you must have in order to compete against the majority of guys in the UFC. First of all… He lacks takedown defence. A gassed out Joe Ellenberger was able to repeatedly take him down and control him on the ground. As soon as Moontasri comes up against a decent wrestler, they’re just going to blanket their way to an easy win. Second of all… Moontasri has bad cardio and gasses out in almost all his fights. I don’t know why he does this because he always looks in good shape, but his cardio is generally bad.
I believe that these weaknesses will cost him against Kevin Lee, because Lee is a strong wrestler that fights at a high pace. Lee has a strong wrestling pedigree and he should be able to take Moontasri down or control him against the cage to leave a lasting impression on the judges scorecards.
If this fight stays standing Kevin Lee should be able to use his solid technical Boxing to get the better of the standup exchanges. He’s not a significantly better striker than Moontasri, but I definitely give him an edge. He has also shown in his previous fights that he has a good chin and his 6 inch reach advantage should make it easier for him to stay out of Moontasri’s range.
Lee is very aggressive and very well rounded. He also has superb fight IQ and he’s always looking for ways to put his stamp on rounds. At 10-1, his only career loss came via decision against Al Iaquinta. Lee should be able to win this fight by keeping the stand up exchanges competitive and winning the majority of rounds with takedowns and top control.
MY BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Kevin Lee to win at odds of 1.41 | -241 | 41/100
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 71 PICKS