We came really close to winning all 6 of our bets at UFC Fight Night 59 and I’m feeling very confident about our chances of a clean sweep at UFC on FOX 14. At worst, I’m predicting at least 5 units of profit from this event, which would set us up nicely to end January with a big overall profit.
Don’t forget to stop by my MMA Betting forum and let me know what you think of my betting tips for this event…
2 FIGHT PARLAY ACCUMULATOR | GEGARD MOUSASI vs DAN HENDERSON | ANTHONY CHRISTODOULOU vs MAIRBEK TAISUMOV
Gegard Mousasi and Mairbek Taisumov have almost no chance of losing their fights at UFC on FOX 14, which make them a great combination for a parlay accumulator. Pairing these two fighters together will give us a 60% return on our money, which is excellent value when you take into consideration the advantages that these guys hold over their opponents.
DAN HENDERSON vs GEGARD MOUSASI
At 44 years old, Dan Henderson’s grey hair and weak frame show the results of a career fueled by PED’s. His last fight against Daniel Cormier was a reminder of just how powerful these drugs can be, as Cormier was able to ragdoll Henderson around the Octagon like he was nothing.
Dan Henderson has now lost 4 out of his last 5 fights, with his only win in the last 4 years coming by way of a hail mary knockout against Mauricio “Shogun” Rua.
Now that Dan Henderson is off TRT, his days of competing seem to be numbered and I now expect a retirement speech everytime he gives a post fight interview.
Gegard Mousasi is fighting in his prime at 29 years old and he’s the type of fighter who is good at everything. Dan Henderson’s fighting style has deteriorated to a point where he’s become a static target that only has one weapon at his disposal. His only remaining weapon being his vicious overhand right, that he looks to uncork everytime his opponent gets into striking range. Only having one weapon, makes Henderson very predictable and Mousasi is a skilled enough striker to get in and out without Hendo being able to land that one punch that could cause Mousasi problems.
I give Gegard Mousasi a significant advantage in every single area that this fight could take place. If this fight stays standing, he should be able to stay on the outside and pick Henderson apart and I also give him a significant edge when it comes to grappling. In the past, Henderson was a wrestler that would strike fear into even the most accomplished MMA grapplers. Unfortunately, his 44 year old body and lack of TRT has meant that Henderson has lost the speed, strength and power which made him so formiddable throughout his career. Mousasi should have no problem stuffing Henderson’s takedown attempts or getting the better of Henderson if this fight does go to the ground.
At 44 years old, Dan Henderson doesn’t have many ways that he can beat a guy like Gegard Mousasi, other than another hail mary knockout. Mousasi is simply too skilled and too well rounded for Henderson and he should be able to win this fight comfortably.
ANTHONY CHRISTODOULOU vs MAIRBEK TAISUMOV
Anthony Christodoulou has been lay and praying his way to 7 straight wins on the regional MMA circuit in Greece, but this is the end of the road for his boring, one dimensional fighting style.
Mairbek Taisumov is primarily a striker but he also holds multiple European Jiu Jitsu Championships and he’s a former Russian Wrestling Champion.
It’s quite scary that someone who is primarily a striker, also holds such strong grappling credentials, but Taisumov is Russian and the Russians are a different breed.
If this fight stays standing, Christodoulou will get absolutely destroyed. If it goes to the ground, he will get absolutely destroyed. In fact, it’s very difficult to picture a scenario in which Taisumov doesn’t completely destroy Christodoulou.
Take a look at one of Christodoulou’s fights from the Greek Fighting Championships last year. He looks completely awkward and out of his depth standing up and he shoots in on people and drags them to the floor without using hardly any technique.
Mairbek Taisumov has excellent grappling, superb takedown defence and elite striking. He should be able to effortlessly stuff Christodoulou’s takedown attempts, before blasting him to pieces in the stand up exchanges. I predict that Taisumov will win this fight by knockout or TKO…
MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Gegard Mousasi and Mairbek Taisumov to win at odds of 1.60 | -166 | 3/5
PHIL DAVIS vs RYAN BADER
These two guys are not known for putting on exciting fights and that’s predominantly the reason why Phil Davis has fought to a decision in his last 4 consecutive fights, whilst Ryan Bader has fought to a decision in his last 3.
Neither of these guys have finishing power and they’re both primarily wrestlers, which makes a finish in this fight unlikely. Bader does have knockout power, but Davis is great at using that trademark Alliance MMA footwork to stay on the outside and avoid engaging. Anthony Johnson landed big on Phil Davis and he couldn’t knock him out, so it’s very unlikely that Bader will be able to put him away inside the distance.
It’s unlikely that either of these guys will be able to win by submission, because their strong wrestling bases give them the ability to bull out of submission attempts.
I don’t see either of these guys being able to win this fight inside the distance, so bet on the fight to go over 2.5 rounds for a 42% return on our money.
MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on the fight lasting longer than 2.5 rounds at odds of 1.42 | -238 | 21/50
ALBERT TUMENOV vs NICO MUSOKE
Albert Tumenov is a violent murderer. He makes Donald Cerrone look like a points fighter. He’s not interested in winning fights, stealing rounds or grinding out decisions, he just wants to hurt you.
Tumenov is similar to Erick Silva in many ways, because he’s great at everything and he’s dangerous from any position. The only major differences between Tumenov and Silva, is that Tumenov is Russian and he’s got cardio for days. This makes him a scary prospect in the Welterweight division and it’s tough to see any way that Nico Musoke could leave the Tele2 Arena on Saturday night with his consciousness still in tact.
Nico Musoke has been badly rocked against every single opponent he has ever fought, who posed even the slightest threat standing up. I will literally be amazed if he manages to survive 3 rounds against Tumenov, without getting badly rocked.
Musoke likes to push the pace and walk his opponents down, but this is suicide against a guy like Tumenov, who has powerful counter punching and excellent footwork. Musoke also relies on his ability to grind on his opponents against the cage, but this will be tough against Tumenov, because the Russian has strong defensive wrestling and he’s very difficult to tie up.
Home advantage won’t be enough to save Nico Musoke, because I seriously doubt that he will be able to survive 15 minutes in the Octagon with Albert Tumenov. Tumenov to win is probably my most confident bet of the weekend…
MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Albert Tumenov to win at odds of 1.70 | -142 | 7/10
ANDY OGLE vs MAKWAN AMIRKHANI
I never thought I’d see the day where I bet on Andy Ogle to win a fight, but here it is, I’m actually recommending that you bet on Andy Ogle to win!
Ogle has never been the best fighter, but he’s always been scrappy, he’s always been serviceable on the ground and he’s always shown great cardio. He’s also been training at Team Alpha male for this fight and he’s had a brutal line up of opponents in his last 3 fights.
Makwan Amirkhani is a submission grappler, who is more than happy to fight off his back. He takes a lot of risks shooting for crazy submissions and he also repeatedly gives up position. You can take a look at him fighting back in 2014 here…
Andy Ogle has avoided the submissions of Maximo Blanco and Cole Miller and he hung in there against Charles Oliveira for 12 and a half minutes without getting submitted. Cole Miller, Charles Oliveira and Maximo Blanco are elite grapplers and if Ogle can hang in there with those guys, you can bet your ass that he should be able to handle a guy like Makwan Amirkhani.
It’s tough to gauge where Ogle is right now, because he’s been fighting beasts for the last 2 years and he’s been training with Team Alpha Male for this fight. I’d be happy to bet that the old Andy Ogle would be able to control a guy like Amirkhani on the ground and avoid the submissions without too much of a problem, so an improved Andy Ogle under the guidance of the Team Alpha Males should look even more comfortable.
Andy Ogle is never going to be a top fighter, but he holds clear advantages of Makwan Amirkhani and I’m happy to place a small bet on him winning this fight…
MY BETTING TIP: 2.5 Units [2.5% of your bankroll] on Andy Ogle to win at odds of 1.80 | -125 | 4/5