I’ve got 5 betting tips for the TUF 21 Finale and we’re long overdue a clean sweep. I feel really confident that each of these bets are going to win and I’m hoping to go 5-0 tonight. We’ve struggled to make progress in our profits lately, but by consistently picking fighters who have the best chance of winning, we will grind out a profit. I feel very confident that we’re going to make money on this event and I can’t wait to get back in the win column.
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JAKE ELLENBERGER vs STEPHEN THOMPSON BETTING TIP
My only criticism of Stephen Thompson is that he fights a little too tentatively. Luckily for us, that won’t be an issue in this fight because Jake Ellenberger is one of the most gunshy fighters in the UFC.
Ellenberger is too tentative and when he feels the power, speed and accuracy of Thompson he’s going to go further into his shell. Ellenberger is simply too slow and too predictable to stand a chance against Thompson. Ellenberger will feel like he’s fighting in slow motion and he won’t come close to landing anything significant. Ellenberger’s problem is that he loads up on strikes and telegraphs them. Thompson’s elite level Karate and footwork will enable him to see Ellenberger’s strikes coming from a mile away. Thompson’s striking defence is incredible and Ellenberger won’t be able to get near him.
Stephen Thompson is unique because he has a very good ground game and strong wrestling for a fighter with a Karate and Kick Boxing base. We don’t normally see guys with a predominantly striking base this comfortable on the ground and I expect him to get even better since the last time he fought because he’s been training with Chris Weidman for Weidman’s last few fight camps.
I honestly do not know what gameplan Ellenberger can use to win this fight. A hail mary knockout is unlikely because of Thompson’s elite striking defence and Ellenberger won’t be able to do anything on the ground. Aside from a freak injury, I don’t see any way that Thompson loses this fight.
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MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Stephen Thompson to win at odds of 1.50 | -200 | 1/2
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CEZAR FERREIRA vs JORGE MASVIDAL BETTING TIP
I was very interested in the weigh ins for this fight because Cezar Ferreira was a huge Middleweight and now he’s dropping to Welterweight. I felt it would be impossible for him to cut enough weight to fight at Welterweight, but despite needing a little help to climb the stairs to the stage he made the 171 pound limit without any issues. Masvidal on the other hand missed weight on his 1st attempt, only to comfortably weigh in at 170 pounds on his second attempt an hour later. This was very strange because Masvidal is moving up a weight class and has never had a problem getting close to the Lightweight limit.
Some people are fading Masvidal based on his apparent weight cutting issues, but I don’t believe it will be a problem in this fight because he’s tough as hell and he always brings it. Fighting at Welterweight should give Masvidal more power, more strength and better cardio and I’m looking forward to seeing how he does in his new weight class. Masvidal had to kill himself to make the 155 pound Lightweight limit and I expect to see him re-energised at Welterweight. Masvidal trains at American Top Team with Dustin Poirier and I’m hoping that we see a similar career resurgence from Masvidal in a new weight class, as what we’ve seen from Poirier when he moved up from Featherweight to Lightweight.
Cezar Ferreira has been badly rocked or knocked out in his last 3 fights… CB Dollaway and Sam Alvey put him to sleep and Andrew Craig had him badly rocked in the 3 round of their fight. If that fight would have lasted another 30 seconds, Ferreira would have been KTFO’d. It’s a well known fact that a fighter’s ability to take a punch diminishes when they kill themselves to cut weight and Ferreira’s durability will probably have declined significantly now that he’s fighting at Welterweight. Ferreira looked terrible at the weigh in’s and I don’t see how he’s going to be able to fully rehydrate in just 24 hours.
Statistics are a great tool that we can use to predict the most likely outcome of a fight and in this match up all the numbers point towards Masvidal winning. Masvidal lands more than double the amount of strikes per minute than Ferreira and he has defended 83% of all takedown attempts in the UFC. His striking defence is also significantly better and each of these statistics are made all the more impressive by the fact that Masvidal has built them up fighting against much better oppoents than what Ferreira has faced.
Jorge Masvidal is well rounded, he’s tough as hell and his Boxing is excellent. He should be able to stand right in front of Ferreira and pick him apart with his crisp technical striking. Aside from a hail mary knockout, I don’t see any way that Ferreira can win. I expect Masvidal to win this fight by knockout.
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MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Jorge Masvidal to win at odds of 1.40 | -247 | 2/5
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ANGELA MAGANA vs MICHELLE WATERSON BETTING TIP
Michelle Waterson is sexy, exciting to watch and charismatic in front of the camera, so it’s no surprise that the UFC jumped at the opportunity of signing her when she lost her Invicta Atomweight title to Herica Tiburcio. It’s also no surprise that they’ve decided to break her in gently by giving her an easy fight against Angela Magana.
There are several squash matches taking place in July and this is perhaps the biggest. Waterson is simply better than Magana in every single aspect of MMA.
If this fight stays standing, Waterson will be able to blast Magana with her more technical striking. Waterson has the best kicks in Women’s MMA and Magana will have her hands full trying to block Waterson’s trademark barrage of lightning fast Karate style kicks. Magana moves in slow motion compared to Waterson and this fight could end up looking a lot like Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Jessica Penne. These ladies are in a different league when it comes to striking.
Waterson also holds a significant advantage over Magana on the ground. Waterson was actually able to beat Jessica Penne by submission, which is extremely impressive because Penne has ridiculously high level BJJ. Waterson is very skilled on the ground and Magana isn’t. It’s as simple as that…
I don’t give Michelle Waterson much of a chance against Joanna Jedrzejczyk, but she’s the closest thing the UFC have to a top contender. Waterson already holds a win over Jessica Penne and Joanna Jedrzejczyk already beat Claudio Gadelha. As a result, Waterson will probably be next in line for a title shot if she beats Magana in impressive fashion.
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MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Michelle Waterson to win at odds of 1.18 | -565 | 9/50
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MIKE GRAVES vs VICENTE LUQUE BETTING TIP
Almost every coach on the Blackzilians picked Vicente Luque as their top guy and Mike Graves was the fighter who most of the American Top Team coaches considered to be their best guy. Both fighters went 1-1 on the show, but Luque looked considerably more impressive than Graves. It’s also worth noting that Luque lost a very close split decision against Hayder Hassan, who ended up winning the show. Graves on the other hand struggled badly in both of his fights.
The ATT coaches spoke at length about how much potential Graves had, but he seemed to struggle with the pressure of competing on the big stage. At just 4-0, Graves could be one of those fighters who looks great in the gym, but struggles to deal with the bright lights of the UFC. If he couldn’t perform under the pressure of competing in a small Gym on the Ultimate Fighter, I don’t see how he’s going to be able to perform in the biggest fight of his life at the MGM Grand.
Luque is well rounded, he’s tough and he fights at a high pace. He should be able to scramble back to his feet if he gets taken down and overwhelm Graves with his more aggressive style of fighting.
Luque is a savage, he always shows up to fight and he’s one of those guys that you have to knock unconscious to beat. Graves showed on the Ultimate Fighter that he’s not quite developed the mental game to compete at the highest level and I believe that it will cost him here. Luque should be able to turn this fight into a war and beat Graves by overwhelming him with aggression.
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MY BETTING TIP: 2 Units [2% of your bankroll] on Vicente Luque to win at odds of 1.83 | -121 | 83/100
TUF 21 FINALE PICKS
