I’ve got 5 betting tips for UFC 189 and I feel very confident that we’re going to kick off July with a big win. This is the first of 4 UFC events in just 7 days and I can’t wait to earn a big profit during this period. I’ve been working really hard on my research for UFC 189 and I can already smell the money. I have a feeling July is going to be a huge month for us and it all starts with our bets for this event…
[divider]
ROBBIE LAWLER vs RORY MACDONALD BETTING TIP
Robbie Lawler is the current UFC Welterweight Champion and he already holds a win over Rory MacDonald. Despite this, I do believe that MacDonald is the rightful favourite and I also believe that he’s a good bet at the current odds.
After watching all of Robbie Lawler’s recent fights I haven’t seen anything from him that MacDonald will struggle to deal with. MacDonald can certainly match Lawler when it comes to striking and he can steal rounds with takedowns and top control.
Rory MacDonald is the perfect example of how MMA wrestling is more effective in MMA than traditional wrestling. This is highlighted by the way that Rory can cover distance extremely quickly and shoot in on his opponent’s. Rory is so fast at taking guys down that they don’t even have time to think about defending a takedown before they’re on their back.
Robbie Lawler’s takedown defence is not that great and he often gets taken down several times in a fight. It may have appeared like he was able to stuff the majority of Johny Hendricks’ takedown attempts, but this was largely because Johny isn’t as fast as Rory and most of his takedowns come against the cage. Robbie does an excellent job of using the cage to defend takedowns, but he’s not so great at stuffing takedowns in the middle of the Octagon and this is the position in which Rory does a really good job of getting his opponent’s down.
I believe that both guys are pretty even when it comes to striking. Robbie has better technical Boxing, he’s got more power and he has the Southpaw advantage, whereas Rory has other advantages such as a slight reach, speed and the ability to throw a wider range of strikes. It’s also worth noting that Rory lands a higher number of strikes per minute and his striking defence is a lot better.
Rory does a really good job of fighting long, controlling the distance and using footwork to circle out of danger. Rory may not be able to completely dominate the striking exchanges, but I do believe that he will be able to comfortably outpoint Lawler.
Rory MacDonald is 8 years younger than Robbie Lawler. This is a significant age gap in a fight and the younger fighter wins around 67% of the time when there is an age gap this big.
It’s important to remember that Rory MacDonald was only 23 years old when he first fought Robbie Lawler. Their first fight was very close and you only have to look at young fighters like Max Holloway and Paige VanZant to see how quickly fighters can improve at this stage of their career. The Rory MacDonald that steps into the Octagon at UFC 189 will be considerably better than the Rory MacDonald that fought Robbie Lawler back in 2013.
Robbie Lawler may have gone on to win the Welterweight title since his first fight against Rory MacDonald, but he is now 33 years old and he’s had 36 pro fights. Mother nature dictates that Robbie Lawler is currently on the decline and whilst he is yet to show any signs of slowing down, his body will not be as fast as it used to be and he will not be able to take damage like he used to. For a fighter like Robbie who relies on being able to mix it up, you have to wonder at what point will all those wars come back to haunt him? I’m not saying that Robbie Lawler will show signs of decline against Rory MacDonald, but you cannot deny that both guys are at opposite ends of the career life cycle and MMA is a young man’s sport.
I believe that Rory MacDonald can keep the standup exchanges competitive and win this fight by securing rounds with takedowns and top control. This fight is a classic example of oldschool vs newschool and in this case I heavily favour the younger guy to win…
[adrotate group=”111″]
MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Rory MacDonald to win at odds of 1.56 | -177 | 14/25
[divider]
BRAD PICKETT vs THOMAS ALMEIDA BETTING TIP
Most people think that Thomas Almeida is going to run through Brad Pickett like he’s nothing, but I’m not sure…
5 out of Pickett’s last 6 fights have all gone to a decision and he’s only ever been finished with strikes once in his 34 fight career. This single loss to strikes came in Pickett’s 2nd ever pro fight which took place over 10 years ago.
It’s also worth noting that Thomas Almeida doesn’t appear to possess devastating knockout power. His wins tend to come more from him overwhelming his opponents with his high volume technical striking.
Brad Pickett is as tough as they come and he has the wrestling, clinchwork and takedowns to tie Almeida up if he starts to get into trouble. I don’t feel confident betting on him to win, but I do feel that betting on this fight to last longer than 1.5 rounds is a good move.
I believe that Pickett will have some success with his wrestling because Almeida has very poor takedown defence. When you add into the mix the fact that Pickett is tough as hell, I believe that there’s a significant chance that this fight lasts longer than 1.5 rounds.
[adrotate group=”44″]
MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on this fight to last longer than 1.5 rounds at odds of 1.71 | -140 | 71/100
[divider]
MATT BROWN vs TIM MEANS BETTING TIP
I believe this is one of those fights where the odds have been based on a fighter’s popularity and their status within a division. The odds certainly don’t take into account how both these guys match up stylistically. If you really take the time evaluate how these guys matchup, you’ll see that Tim Means holds an advantage over Matt Brown almost everywhere. Means has better technical striking, he has better defence and he’s at least equal to Matt Brown in the clinch and on the ground.
I understand that you might feel nervous about betting on Tim Means because of a few poor performances at Lightweight, but he’s looked pretty good since moving up to Welterweight. I believe we’re seeing the same career resurgence from him that we’ve seen from the likes of Robbie Lawler, Lorenz Larkin, Anthony Johnson and Dustin Poirier. Each of those guys have looked incredible since moving up a weight class and I believe the same can be said about Tim Means.
I cannot deny that Means has put in a few flakey performances in the past but he’s only ever underperformed against guys who refuse to engage with him. Means has historically struggled to deal with counter strikers, but he will not have to worry about this against Matt Brown, because Brown will be the guy to press the action. I believe that this dynamic will bring out the best in Tim Means, because Means is used to fighting against guys who want to run away from him. Imagine how Means will look when he doesn’t have to focus on cutting angles, closing the distance and chasing his opponents around the Octagon. Imagine how good he will look when he only has to focus on using his extremely high level technical striking.
I believe fighting an aggressive guy like Matt Brown will bring out the best in Tim Means because Means does a great job of standing in the pocket and gaining the upper hand in striking exchanges. Matt Brown will come forward very aggressively and Means will have the technique, speed and range to exploit this aggression. Matt Brown has historically struggled to deal with Southpaws and whilst Tim Means is not a natural Southpaw, he is very comfortable fighting out of the Southpaw stance. He frequently chooses to fight Southpaw against Orthodoxed stanced fighters and I believe that Matt Brown will struggle to deal with this.
Matt Brown has been involved in a lot of wars throughout his career and his lack of defensive skills have always been his biggest weakness. His striking defence got exposed against Robbie Lawler and I believe that the Lawler fight gave us a lot of clues as to how this fight might play out. I’m not saying that Tim Means is as good as Robbie Lawler, but Means certainly presents more challenges to Brown than Lawler did… I say this because Lawler doesn’t look to fight in the clinch, he doesn’t throw that many kicks and you only have to worry about his technical Boxing. Means on the other hand is lethal in the clinch, he throws a wider range of strikes and he’s also a rangey Southpaw striker that throws nasty kicks and knees.
One of the main reasons why I’m betting against Matt Brown is because he gets hurt in almost all of his fights. In contrast, Means is tough as hell and he hardly ever gets hurt. Means is definitely more durable and since this fight will most likely be a crazy all out war, I have to favour the guy who is more durable. I just don’t see Brown being able to go 3 hard rounds with a guy like Tim Means without getting badly hurt. I understand that Brown has just gone the distance with Robbie Lawler and Johny Hendricks, but thesse are different kinds of match ups. Both Lawler and Hendricks approached the fight in a way that they were able to neutralize Brown’s threats and grind out a win. Means will not fight tactically like Lawler and Hendricks did and he will not back up an inch. Brown and Means will meet in the centre of the Octagon at UFC 189 and throw down. I believe that Tim Means will win this fight because he’s more durable and he’s more skilled than Matt Brown. Means should be able to handle Brown’s aggression and pick him apart with his more technical striking.
[adrotate group=”132″]
MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Tim Means to win at odds of 2.62 | +162 | 81/50
[divider]
CODY GARBRANDT vs HENRY BRIONES BETTING TIP
There’s no way that Henry Briones and Cody Garbrandt should be sharing the same Octagon at UFC 189. Garbrandt is simply better than Briones in every single aspect of MMA. Briones will be lucky to make it out of the 1st round with his consciousness still in tact.
I haven’t lost a 10 unit bet in 2015 and I don’t plan on starting now. Garbrandt should be able to use his high level technical striking to blast Briones in the stand up exchanges and finish him with a knockout.
I don’t see this fight going to the ground, but if it does, I also give a significant advantage to Cody Garbrandt who trains at Team Alpha Male.
I believe this matchup proves that the UFC are trying to build Garbrandt as a star, because giving him Henry Briones is a very favourable matchup. This fight will not be competitive. Garbrandt should win easily…
[adrotate group=”132″]
MY BETTING TIP: 10 Units [10% of your bankroll] on Cody Garbrandt to win at odds of 1.17 | -596 | 17/100
UFC 189 PICKS
