My two Premium Betting Tips for UFC Fight Night 65 are underdogs. I believe that Nick Kalikas has got the odds completely wrong in these fights. There’s a crazy amount of value on both these guys and I believe that they’ll win their fights comfortably. I’m expecting to make a good profit from my bets in May and that all starts with a solid win from my bets for this event. Now lets get that money!!!!!!
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BRAD TAVARES vs ROBERT WHITTAKER BETTING TIP
Brad Tavares is the betting favourite over Robert Whittaker, but I have a hard time seeing how he’s going to win this fight when Whittaker has home advantage on his side. Brad’s problem is that he never fights in a way that puts his stamp on a round and Whittaker constantly comes forward and fights very aggressively. Judges always favour the more aggressive fighter and I have no doubt in my mind that Whittaker will be the aggressor in this fight. Whittaker is also a very popular fighter in Australia and the energy that the crowd generates is bound to have an impact on the judges decision. This advantage is amplified by the fact that Whittaker fights with an exciting, crowd pleasing style.
Whenever I bet on someone who is fighting a popular fighter with home advantage on their side, I always ask myself whether they are capable of winning inside the distance or putting in a completely dominant performance. If the answer to both those questions is “no”, then there’s almost always value in betting on the guy with home advantage.
I just don’t see how Brad Tavares is going to win this fight inside the distance or put in a dominant enough performance to clearly win 2 out of 3 rounds against Whittaker.
I actually believe that Whittaker will win this fight because of his skills and not because of judging bias or home advantage. Of course these factors add extra value to a bet on Whittaker, but he also matches up extremely well with Brad Tavares…
Robert Whittaker is one of the few Australian fighters with very strong wrestling. This is backed up by the fact that he has successfully defended 91% of all takedown attempts across 6 fights in the UFC. Brad Tavares does like to shoot for takedowns, but he doesn’t have particularly good offensive wrestling having only successfully completed 32% of all takedown attempts across 11 fights in the UFC. These statistics suggest that this fight is likely to be contested standing up, which is good news for Whittaker, because I actually give him an advantage when it comes to striking…
Brad Tavares has a decent Kick Boxing base, but he lacks power, he lacks urgency and he also doesn’t land significant strikes that help him to put a stamp on rounds. Whittaker on the other hand has excellent technical Boxing, a strong chin, knockout power and he also throws a higher volume of strikes per minute.
Robert Whittaker is tough, aggressive and he’s always moving forward. He also possesses good counter striking and he has power in both of his hands. I believe he will win this fight by outboxing Tavares, stuffing takedowns and landing the more significant strikes.
At odds of 2.50 | +150 | 3/2, I believe that Robert Whittaker is a great bet…
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MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Robert Whittaker to win at odds of 2.50 | +150 | 3/2
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ANTHONY PEROSH vs SEAN O’CONNELL BETTING TIP
Anthony Perosh is dangerous on the ground, but he finds it very difficult to take his opponents down. This is backed up by the fact that he’s only successfully completed 22% of all takedown attempts across 8 fights in the UFC. This is a problem for Perosh because he has woeful striking, poor striking defence and a very questionable chin…
Sean O’Connell has a strong wrestling base, he’s tough as nails and he has vicious one punch knockout power. He also has good enough defensive wrestling to keep this fight standing, which means it should only be a matter of time before he knocks Perosh out.
Anthony Perosh is now 42 years old and he doesn’t hold a single win over any fighter currently competing in the UFC. Sean O’Connell is 11 years younger at 31, which gives him a huge advantage in this fight because the younger fighter wins around 70% of the time when there’s an 11 year age gap in a fight.
O’Connell has shown in recent performances that he’s incredibly tough and he’s incredibly well rounded. I feel he only has to land 1 clean punch to end this fight and I don’t see how Perosh is going to be able to avoid getting hit clean at least once in 15 minutes.
This is one of those weird fights where I feel I’m missing something, because I do believe that O’Connell should be much closer to a 1.36 | -227 | 9/25 favourite.
I know Perosh is popular in Australia and I know he has home advantage on his side, but O’Connell should easily be able to stuff his takedowns, walk him down and knock him out…
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MY BETTING TIP: 2.5 Units [2.5% of your bankroll] on Sean O’Connell to win at odds of 2.50 | +150 | 3/2
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UFC FIGHT NIGHT 65 PICKS
