UFC Fight Night 70 is a good event for betting which means I’ve got a total of 4 Premium Betting Tips for this event. Each of the guys we’re betting on have significant advantages over their opponent and I expect each of them to win. I am hoping that we can make a big profit on this event, which will help us get back on track for the month of June.
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LYOTO MACHIDA vs YOEL ROMERO BETTING TIP
This is one of those fights where I completely changed my mind on how I thought it would play out after watching some footage of both guys. I went from feeling moderately confident that Romero would win, to feeling super confident that Machida would win.
I’m a big fan of Yoel Romero, but this is a bad match up for him. I believe that Lyoto Machida will win this fight by knockout or TKO in the 2nd or 3rd round.
Romero has high level wrestling that he can use to easily take his opponents down, but he doesn’t have the grappling control to keep them there. He kind of knocks people down and then gives them a ton of space to scramble back to their feet. This means that Romero’s grappling will not be effective against Machida, because Machida has excellent scrambles. In fact, he’s like a spring. Whenever he gets taken down, he almost immediately pops back to his feet. Luke Rockhold had to wrap himself around Machida like a Snake in order to keep him down, but Romero doesn’t have that level of Jiu Jitsu or grappling control.
If Romero had a good gas tank, his style of fighting would be dangerous because he could take guys down, rough them up and gas them out. Problem is… Romero doesn’t have a good gas tank and taking his opponents down seems to take more energy out of him than his opponent’s. His poor cardio could be the reason why he seems reluctant to use his wrestling more frequently.
Romero has high level wrestling, but it won’t be easy to take Machida down because Machida has some of the best takedown defence in the UFC. This is backed up by the fact that he has defended 75% of all takedowns across 20 UFC fights. This is an impressive statistic when you take into consideration the fact that Machida has competed at the highest level during his entire UFC career. Machida also has high level Jiu Jitsu and he’s very good at scrambling back to his feet after getting taken down. Machida has shown throughout his career that he has the cardio to go 5 hard rounds and I don’t see Romero’s grappling being a major factor in this fight.
Yoel Romero does have knockout power, but I believe that his ability to inflict huge damage on his opponents is largely down to the fact that he fights out of the Southpaw stance.
Romero’s Southpaw advantage will not play a factor in this fight because Lyoto Machida also fights out of the Southpaw stance. Machida is one of the highest level Southpaws in the UFC and I believe Romero will find it extremely difficult to adjust to Machida’s style of striking because strikes will be coming from angles that Romero is not familiar with. It would be hard enough for Romero to have to deal with Machida’s unorthodox style of striking at the best of times, but the fact that he also has to go up against a high level Southpaw for the first time suggests that Romero could struggle in the stand up exchanges.
When two Southpaws fight each other, their bodies face into the power left leg of their opponent. This means that Romero’s body will be wide open to Machida’s devastating body kicks. Machida’s body kicks are capable of ending fights, but they also suck an enormous amount of energy out of his opponent’s when they land. If you go back and watch Weidman vs Machida, you’ll notice that Weidman slows down considerably after eating 3 or 4 of Machida’s body kicks. It almost looks like Weidman is gassed out, until you notice the huge bruising on his ribs. Romero has already shown throughout his career that he has bad cardio and he won’t be able to take many of Machida’s body kicks without significantly slowing down.
At the beginning of this betting tip, I said that I believed Lyoto Machida would win this fight by knockout or TKO in the second or third round. I believe that the fight will end this way because Romero explodes forward with his strikes and doesn’t set anything up. I believe that Lyoto will be able to use his footwork to avoid the majority of Romero’s power strikes and takedown attempts, before capitalizing on openings that Romero will leave when he starts to get tired.
This is a good matchup for Machida and I expect him to win.
I also recommend that you bet on this fight NOT to go to a decision. I don’t normally give out prop bets as betting tips, but the limits on this betting line seem to be high and I’ve been able to bet a good amount of money on it.
Betting on this fight NOT to go to a decision is a good move because Yoel Romero doesn’t have the cardio to fight for a full 5 rounds. It’s also worth noting that UFC Fight Night 70 is taking place in a small Octagon and finishes are signficiantly more likely in small Octagon’s because fighters are forced to engage more often.
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MY FIRST BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Lyoto Machida to win at odds of 1.56 | -180 | 14/25
MY SECOND BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on this fight NOT to go to a decision at odds of 1.42 | -240 | 21/50
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ANTONIO CARLOS JUNIOR vs EDDIE GORDON BETTING TIP
Antonio Carlos Junior is cutting down to Middleweight for the first time to take on Eddie Gordon. This is a good move because he has been carrying a lot of excess body weight in his UFC fights. The cut down to Middleweight should make him faster, more explosive and more difficult to control on the ground.
Betting against Eddie Gordon is always a concern because he has excellent takedowns and good top control. This makes him risky to bet against because he can use these skills to smother an opponent for 2 out of 3 rounds and take down a decision. Having said that… Gordon doesn’t really do anything when he gains a dominant position on his opponent and he’s not particularly good in any other area of MMA.
Antonio Carlos Junior might not have the best takedown defence, but he does have high level Jiu Jitsu and he’s very active off his back. At Light Heavyweight he was able to put Patrick Cummins in some bad positions and scramble back to his feet multiple times. Cummins is bigger than Eddie Gordon and he’s got better grappling control. If Antonio Carlos Junior can scramble back to his feet and cause Cummins problems on the ground, I feel very confident that he’ll be able to cause Gordon problems too.
Eddie Gordon might have better technical Boxing that Antonio Carlos Junior, but ACJ throws a wider range of strikes, he’s more aggressive and he throws with a much higher volume.
One of Gordon’s biggest weaknesses is his cardio and he uses his smothering top control to catch his breath during fights. He won’t be able to do this against ACJ, because ACJ is very active on the ground and Gordon will have to work extremely hard to maintain dominant positions. Gordon also won’t be able to conserve energy standing up because ACJ is very aggressive. You will see that he’s constantly coming forward and he fights at a relentless pace.
Eddie Gordon certainly has ways in which he can win this fight, but I don’t believe he has the cardio to pull it off. I just don’t see him being able to keep up with ACJ for 3 hard rounds.
Antonio Carlos Junior is 7 years younger than Eddie Gordon and the younger fighter wins around 65% of the time when there is a 7 year age gap in a fight. I believe that ACJ will win this fight by outworking Gordon on the ground and in the stand up exchanges.
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MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Antonio Carlos Junior to win at odds of 1.57 | -175 | 57/100
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HACRAN DIAS vs LEVAN MAKASHVILI BETTING TIP
Levan Makashvili has almost no chance of winning this fight because Hacran Dias is significantly better than him in every single aspect of MMA.
Makashvili is a well rounded fighter, but he’s not particularly good in any area. His striking is one dimensional and he lacks the power and explosiveness to effectively use his wrestling. He’s also very slow for a Featherweight and he doesn’t appear to be very physically strong.
Hacran Dias is also a well rounded fighter, but he is much more skilled in each individual aspect of MMA. He has strong wrestling, high level Jiu Jitsu and his striking is good enough to stay competitive with most fighters in the UFC’s Featherweight division.
Makashvili’s tactic for winning fights is to try and beat his opponent in the stand up exchanges, whilst sealing rounds with takedowns and cage control. These tactics will not work against Hacran Dias because Dias is a better striker, he’s stronger in the clinch and he also has extremely good takedown defence. Makashvili is primarily a grappler, but he will not want to go to the ground with Dias because Dias’ wrestling and Jiu Jitsu is in a different league.
Hacran Dias is not the kind of fighter to completely run through his opponent or put on a highlight reel performance, but neither is Makashvili. I expect Dias to win this fight by outstriking Makashvili and winning rounds with takedowns and top control.
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MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Hacran Dias to win at odds of 1.56 | -180 | 14/25
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UFC FIGHT NIGHT 70 PICKS
