I’ve got 6 betting tips for UFC Fight Night Nashville. There aren’t many major MMA events in August so I’m hoping to bank a big profit by betting on two underdogs with a ton of value. I’d personally cap one of these underdogs as a decent sized favourite and the other underdog as a slight favourite. Hopefully they will both win, which should guarantee us a big profit on this event.
BENEIL DARIUSH vs MICHAEL JOHNSON BETTING TIP
When I first started researching this fight I found it almost impossible to pick a winner, but the more I studied footage, the more I noticed little things about the performances of both guys which I believe give Michael Johnson a significant edge over Beneil Dariush.
Beneil Dariush may look like a very well rounded fighter, but it’s only his ground game which is high level. Dariush’s striking appears to be better than it actually is, because he fights out of the Southpaw stance. This gives him a big advantage over less experienced opponent’s who fight out of the Orthodox stance. Dariush’s Southpaw striking also amplifies the power and impact of his devastating Muay Thai kicks.
Michael Johnson will be the first Southpaw will solid technical striking that Dariush has ever faced. Dariush’s powerful Muay Thai kicks will be a lot less dangerous against a fellow Southpaw like Johnson. It’s also worth noting that Dariush has extremely bad striking defence. If you go back and watch almost any of his fights, you’ll notice that he’s extremely easy to hit. This is down to the fact that Dariush doesn’t utilize any head movement and he keeps his hands very low. Johnson is the much more experienced Southpaw and he should be able to easily outstrike Dariush.
Dariush also shows all the signs of a fighter that doesn’t like to get hit. This is always a big problem, especially against a guy like Johnson who has fast hands and knockout power. When Dariush gets tagged clean, he forgets how to fight and moves backwards in a straight line until his back is pinned up against the cage. This creates further openings for his opponents and it’s one of the reasons why Dariush gets hit so much.
Further signs of Dariush feeling uncomfortable about getting hit surface when you watch him fight against a guy who pressures him. Pressure can do crazy things to a fighter and some guys just struggle to deal with it. Michael Johnson has excellent footwork and excellent defence and he’s always in your face. If he employs the same high pressure strategy against Dariush that he did against Edson Barboza, he’s going to cause Dariush some big problems.
On the ground Beneil Dariush has a huge advantage over Michael Johnson, but Dariush has poor offensive wrestling and most of his fights have ended up on the ground because his opponents have initiated grappling exchanges or clinches. Michael Johnson is very hard to tie up, because he’s fast, explosive and his constant movement and footwork means that he’s never in one place for very long. Michael Johnson has great takedown defence, having defended 78% of all takedowns in the UFC and I don’t believe Dariush is going to be able to get him down.
Beneil Dariush and Michael Johnson have both looked great recently, but Johnson’s striking is significantly better and I don’t believe Dariush will be able to get this fight to the ground. I believe the majority of this fight will be contested standing up and Johnson should be able to win this fight by picking Dariush apart.
MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Michael Johnson to win at odds of 1.65 | -153 | 13/20
DEREK BRUNSON vs SAM ALVEY BETTING TIP
Sam Alvey has garnered a reputation for being a vicious knockout artist, but I’m not buying it. Yes… I accept he’s won his last 3 fights by knockout or TKO, but when you break down each of those wins it’s really not that impressive. Most recently he knocked out Dan Kelly who is 37 years old, slow, lacks striking defence and is wide open to the knockout. Then he knocked out Cezar “Mutante” Ferreira, who is one of the “chinniest” fighters in the UFC. Then he fought Dylan Andrews, who KNOCKED HIMSELF OUT whilst taking Alvey down.
In my opinion, Sam Alvey is one of the worst fighters in the UFC’s Middleweight division and I believe Derek Brunson is going to destroy him.
Many people believe that Sam Alvey possesses vicious knockout power, but what people fail to realise is that Alvey fights out of the Southpaw stance, which amplifies his power when he competes against a fighter who fights out of the Orthodox stance. When a Southpaw fights a fellow Southpaw, all their advantages are negated and they lose their knockout power because their opponent is no longer stepping into their power left hand. Derek Brunson fights out of the Southpaw stance and he’s got good movement and striking defence. I don’t believe Alvey posseses a knockout threat to Brunson at all.
I believe Derek Brunson is one of the safest bets of the year and he can win this fight standing up or on the ground. He can either choose to stand and strike with Alvey, where he should easily be able to land a much higher volume of strikes, or he can use his high level wrestling to take Alvey down and control him on the ground.
Derek Brunson should be able to take Alvey down any time he chooses, because Alvey has terrible takedown defence. This is largely down to the fact that Alvey fights flat footed and over commits to his strikes. This makes it easy for his opponents to shoot in on him and put him on his back.
I believe Brunson should be much closer to a 1.10 | -1000 favourite, which means we’re getting a good amount of value on him at the current odds of around 1.30 | -333.
MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Derek Brunson to win at odds of 1.30 | -333 | 3/10
CHRIS CAMOZZI vs TOM WATSON BETTING TIP
Chris Camozzi and Tom Watson have a combined total of 19 fights within the UFC. What I’m about to say is almost unbelievable, but it should make for a very exciting fight. In Camozzi and Watson’s 19 career fights in the UFC, neither of them have ever shot for a takedown. Not even 1…
This means that this fight should be a stand up fight, which means we’re in for a real treat because both guys are tough and both guys are very scrappy. I favour Watson to beat Camozzi, but not enough to put my money on it because I think this matchup has got split decision written all over it.
I believe that this fight will go the distance because both guys are extremely tough and extremely durable. This fight is almost certainly going to be contested standing up and Camozzi hasn’t lost a single fight by knockout or TKO in his 31 pro fight career. Almost equally impressive, Watson has never been finished with strikes in his 25 fight career.
It’s also worth noting that Camozzi has fought to a decision in 5 out of his last 7 fights in the UFC. Watson has fought to a decision in 4 out of his last 5.
This fight has got “Fight of the Night” written all over it and whilst I don’t feel confident picking a winner out of these two warriors, I do feel confident betting on this fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds…
MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on this fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds at odds of 1.45 | -222 | 9/20
DUSTIN ORTIZ vs WILLIE GATES BETTING TIP
Nick Kalikas must have been wearing a blindfold when he capped the odds for this fight. There’s simply no reason why Willie Gates should be such a huge underdog against Dustin Ortiz. I accept it’s possible that Ortiz could lay and pray his way to a win, but Gates has shown great takedown defence in each of his fights and Dustin Ortiz has very poor offensive wrestling having only successfully completed 32% of all takedown attempts in the UFC.
Most of Ortiz’s fights end up being contested on the ground because his opponent’s choose to engage in grappling exchanges. Everyone one of Ortiz’s opponents who has tried to keep a fight standing, has been able to keep the fight standing with relative ease. It’s also worth noting that Gates has trained with Bobby Green and Lorenz Larkin, both of whom has an ungodly ability to defend takedowns despite the fact that they are primarily strikers. Training with those guys should mean that Gates will know a thing or two about defending takedowns and scrambling back to his feet.
Willie Gates has only fought twice in the UFC but both of his performances have been extremely impressive. His first fight was against number 4 ranked Flyweight John Moraga in a matchup that Gates took on just 2 weeks notice. Gates managed to stay competitive for most of the fight and looked great considering he was taking the fight on short notice against an extremely tough opponent in his UFC debut. He then scored an impressive 1st round knockout win over Darrell Montague. Prior to entering the UFC, Gates was riding a 5 fight winning streak with all 5 wins coming by way of 1st round stoppage.
Everything I have seen from Willie Gates so far indicates that he’s a really good fighter that could develop into a top 10 talent. One of the things you first notice about Gates, is that he’s extremely big for the Flyweight division. Gates stands at 5 ft 10 and holds a 5 inch reach advantage over Dustin Ortiz. Ortiz is actually undersized for a Flyweight and the size difference between Gates and Ortiz should be huge come fight night. This physical advantage will make it easier for Gates to stuff takedown attempts and scramble back to his feet if Ortiz does manage to get him down.
When it comes to striking, Gates is in a different league. Dustin Ortiz actually has very poor striking and even worse striking defence. This is surprising when you take into account the fact that Ortiz trains at Roufusport with Duke Roufus and the Pettis brothers. If Gates can keep this fight standing, he should be able to destroy Ortiz with his fast hands and knockout power.
I believe Willie Gates has the skills and strength to keep this fight standing. His speed, accuracy and length will make it hard for Ortiz to keep the striking exchanges competitive. There’s no reason why Willie Gates should be such a huge underdog in this fight and I believe he’s a great value underdog bet who has a really good chance of beating Dustin Ortiz.
MY BETTING TIP: 1.5 Units [1.5% of your bankroll] on Willie Gates to win at odds of 4.60 | +360 | 18/5
FRANKIE SAENZ vs SIRWAN KAKAI BETTING TIP
I personally capped Sirwan Kakai at around 1.50 | -200 against Frankie Saenz, so I was shocked to see him open up as the underdog. Kakai has advantages over Saenz in almost every single aspect of MMA apart from pure wrestling and Frankie Saenz’s only chance of winning this fight is by lay and pray.
Frankie Saenz is a very one dimensional fighter with poor striking, poor striking defence and very average MMA wrestling and top control. The days of being able to win fights with lay and pray are coming to an end and fighters like Frankie Saenz do no pose that much of a threat to the well rounded next generation of Mixed Martial Artist like Sirwan Kakai.
Frankie Saenz is now 34 years old and Sirwan Kakai is just 25 years old. The 9 year age gap in this fight is a huge advantage for Kakai, who should be fresher, faster and more powerful.
One of Frankie Saenz’s biggest weaknesses is his striking defence. This guy is extremely easy to hit. Saenz fights with his hands down and his reactions to blocking strikes is also very poor. He also leaves himself wide open when he tries to close the distance and shoot in for takedowns.
Landing significant strikes with speed, accuracy and power when your moving backwards is extremely difficult to do. If ever you spot a fighter with the ability to do this, there’s a good chance that they possess some serious skills. Sirwan Kakai does an excellent job of landing significant strikes whilst being pressured and moving backwards and this will give him a huge advantage in this fight because he’ll be able to punish Saenz, when Saenz closes the distance and tries to tie Kakai up.
Saenz has very poor striking and he only throws punches to setup his takedowns. Kakai should be able to keep things tight and use his more technical striking to pick Saenz apart.
I really like Sirwan Kakai in this fight and I believe he will be able to use his solid defensive wrestling to keep the majority of this fight standing, whilst he blasts Saenz with his more technical striking.
MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Sirwan Kakai to win at odds of 2.13 | +113 | 18/5
UFC FIGHT NIGHT NASHVILLE PICKS