After banking a solid profit in July I am looking to keep things tight and end the month with a strong win by betting on 4 solid favourites who each old significant advantages over their opponent’s. I also recommend that you bet on Joe Lauzon to beat Takanori Gomi if you can still bet him at odds of around 1.40 | -250 or better. I had planned on Lauzon being one of my betting tips, but the odds dropped on Lauzon to the point where I could no longer justify playing him. I know that some Sportsbooks in Europe are still offering Lauzon at around 1.40 | -250 and I would definitely recommend betting him at these odds.
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JESSICA EYE vs MIESHA TATE BETTING TIP
I don’t like betting big on female fighters because they tend to be inconsistent, but it’s tough to pass up the opportunity of betting on Miesha Tate because she holds several significant advantages over Jessica Eye.
Female fighters tend to under-perform more frequently than male fighters, but I’d hope that both these girls show up and perform to their full potential because the winner of this fight will go on to face Ronda Rousey for the UFC Women’s Bantamweight title. I can’t see either of these girls flaking when there’s a shot at the title on the line and this should be an easy fight for Miesha Tate just as long as Jessica Eye has not made significant improvements since she fought Alexis Davis.
Tate’s biggest advantage over Jessica Eye is her ability to take her opponents down and submit them. Eye’s takedown defence and ground game is woeful and I don’t see what she can do to stop Tate from taking her down and dominating her on the ground. Eye’s takedown defence is so bad that a strong gust of wind would be enough to put her on her back. This is backed up by the fact that she has only successfully stuffed 33% of all takedowns in the UFC. This statistic is terrible when you take into consideration the fact that Eye has never even fought a wrestler or anyone that was good at taking people down!!!
Miesha Tate’s nickname used to be “Takedown” and it doesn’t take a genius to work out how she got that name. Her ability to take her opponent’s down and give them all kinds of problems on the ground helped her win and defend the Strikeforce Women’s Bantamweight title multiple times until Ronda Rousey came along. Tate doesn’t just take you down and control you, she constantly looks for submissions and she’s a very dangerous submission grappler. If Tate does take Eye down, I believe she’ll end up winning this fight by submission.
When it comes to striking there’s not a huge skill gap between these two ladies. Eye’s striking may have looked impressive in her last fight against Leslie Smith, but it’s easy to look good against an opponent like that. Smith has always been a walking punch bag and it’s easy to look great when your opponent isn’t blocking punches or threatening takedowns. If you go and watch some of Eye’s other fights you’ll see that her defence is very poor and she panics when she gets hit. Jessica Eye is also very easy to back up and her strikes don’t come with enough power to inflict significant damage on Miesha Tate.
I believe Miesha Tate is just as good a striker as Jessica Eye. She may not be as fast and her footwork might not be as good, but she’s certainly more powerful and she does a much better job of controlling distance. If this fight stays standing it will be close, but Tate will almost definitely land the more significiant strikes which will leave a lasting impression on the judges scorecards.
Jessica Eye will know that she’s in big trouble if Tate can take her down and that will make it difficult for her to stick to her gameplan and fight her fight. She will be a lot more reluctant to commit to throwing strikes, because the threat of being taken down will force her to pick her shots. Jessica Eye will almost certainly fight more tentatively than she normally does and this will make it easier for Tate to gain the upper hand.
Miesha Tate’s toughness also gives her a huge advantage over Jessica Eye. When Eye gets hit, she panics and forgets how to fight. She’ll close her eyes, go backwards in a straight line and she visibly shows signs that she doesn’t enjoy getting punched in the face. These brief moments of panic give Tate openings to take her down or land significant strikes. Tate’s toughness gives her the edge because she won’t back down from a fight. She won’t go backwards and she won’t quit. Cat Zingano wrecked her face when they fought and Tate didn’t quit. Sara McMann cracked Tate’s orbital bone in the first round of their fight and Tate went on to beat her. Ronda Rousey twisted her arms in all kinds of different ways and she didn’t tap for a long time. She’s the only person who has ever made it out of the 1st round against Ronda. In fact… She made it to the 3rd round. If these girls decide to stand and bang. I favour Tate on sheer grit and determination.
Miesha Tate rarely looks impressive in victory. Her fights always tend to be close and she’s frustrating because at times it looks like she’s holding back. Having said that, she holds many significant advantages over Jessica Eye and I believe she’s a good bet. Tate should easily be able to take Jessica down in every round and win a unanimous decision. This is an easy fight for Miesha Tate and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her put in a dominant performance.
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MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Miesha Tate to win at odds of 1.51 | -195 | 51/100
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BRYAN CARAWAY vs EDDIE WINELAND BETTING TIP
Eddie Wineland’s last fight was 14 months ago against Johnny Eduardo. At the time he was the number 4 ranked Bantamweight in the world and a 1.13 | -750 favourite over his opponent. One knockout loss later and everybody seems to have forgotten just how good Eddie Wineland is. I can’t believe people are giving Bryan Caraway a chance in this fight and I can’t believe people are fading Eddie so hard after just 1 loss. This is the same guy that gave Renan Barao problems in the first round of their fight and the same guy who has ridiculously good takedown defence and explosive striking.
This is an easy fight for Eddie Wineland and the only reason why I’m not betting more money on him to win is because he’s been out for 14 months and a broken jaw can do nasty things to a fighter’s mentality. That said… I believe the UFC have given Eddie a nice tuneup fight to help him ease back into competing against the UFC’s 10 top Bantamweights. I believe this is an easy fight for Eddie Wineland because Caraway doesn’t have the power or technique to hurt him with strikes and he doesn’t have the offensive wrestling to take Eddie down.
People generally have the perception that Bryan Caraway is a strong wrestler, but this isn’t true. Most of his fights that end up on the ground, end up going to the ground because his opponents initiated grappling exchanges or made a mistake. Caraway’s offensive wrestling is actually very poor and he’s only successfully completed 41% of all takedown attempts in the UFC. Caraway’s inability to take his opponent’s down through traditional wrestling means he’s in big trouble in this fight because Eddie Wineland has excellent takedown defence.
Eddie’s takedown defence is freakishly good because he fights with his hands very low. This enables him to quickly secure underhooks and stuff takedowns when his opponent’s shoot in on him. Caraway doesn’t have the cleanest or most powerful takedowns when he shoots in and Eddie should have no problem keeping this fight standing. Eddie actually has some of the best takedown defence in the UFC’s Bantamweight division having stuffed 82% of all takedowns. This is an impressive statistic when you take into consideration the fact that he has fought strong wrestlers such as Joseph Benavidez, Scott Jorgensen and Urijah Faber.
Bryan Caraway is still a rookie when it comes to striking and I believe that Eddie Wineland will knock him out. Caraway’s biggest weakness is that he doesn’t have a deep enough understanding of striking to work out what his opponent is going to do. This means you will often see him in fights stood with his feet planted and his back against the cage, whilst he tries to find his range and work out what his opponent is going to do. This is a huge mistake against a guy like Eddie Wineland, because Wineland is super aggressive, extremely unorthodox and he’ll pounce on any signs of weakness that he sees in his opponent’s standup game.
Eddie Wineland is very difficult to fight against because he never stops moving and he’s very unorthodox. His headmovement, hand positioning and footwork make it extremely hard to predict what he’s going to do next. He is an absolute nightmare opponent for an inexperienced striker like Bryan Caraway, who hasn’t yet developed strong enough skills to determine what type of strikes an unorthodox guy like Eddie Wineland is going to throw.
Caraway also has a huge fundamental flaw in his striking technique that makes him extremely susceptible to getting knocked out… For some reason he ducks his head down when he throws punches. This will make it easy for Wineland to blast him with big counters and uppercuts. Caraway’s striking defence is also very poor. He doesn’t utilize any head movement and his footwork is non existent.
Eddie Wineland should be able to win this fight by standing in the pocket with Caraway and blasting him with powerful strikes. Wineland is much faster than Bryan Caraway and he should have no problem stuffing Caraway’s takedown attempts and picking him apart standing up.
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MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Eddie Wineland to win at odds of 1.69 | -145 | 69/100
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DARON CRUICKSHANK vs JAMES KRAUSE BETTING TIP
James Krause is very big for a Lightweight and I feel he could be one of those guys who would benefit from moving up a weight class because at Lightweight there doesn’t appear to be any power in his strikes. The expression “Pillow Fists” was made for guys like James Krause and I don’t see what he’s going to be able to do to get the better of the striking exchanges against Daron Cruickshank.
James Krause almost always outstrikes his opponent’s but he often loses on the judges scorecards because his strikes don’t look like they do any damage. Cruickshank is the complete opposite. He doesn’t throw with as much volume as Krause, but when he does land, it’s often spectacular and his highlight reel strikes leave a lasting impression on the judges scorecards.
This fight will most likely consist of Krause walking Cruickshank down, whilst Cruickshank stays on the outside and blasts Krause with the occasional highlight reel kick or flurry of powerful punches. Krause simply doesn’t have the power to back Cruickshank up and he’s most likely going to be chasing shadows for the majority of this fight.
On paper this match up looks like it will be a stand up affair, but I actually believe there’s a good chance that Daron Cruickshank will use his wrestling to secure a victory. Cruickshank actually has pretty good offensive wrestling and he’s been going for takedowns quite often in his recent fights. James Krause has terrible takedown defence, having only sucessfully stuffed 25% of all takedowns and I believe Cruickshank will be able to secure rounds by taking Krause down.
Daron Cruickshank should easily be able to win this fight by landing the more significant strikes and securing rounds with takedowns and top control.
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MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Daron Cruickshank to win at odds of 1.65 | -155 | 13/20
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UFC ON FOX 16 PICKS
