Taking an investment based approach to betting…
Many great investors believe strongly in Index Funds because they allow you to spread your money out across different Stock Market industries. The theory is that your money will continue to grow over the long term because whenever one area of the Stock Market is not performing well, the cumulative growth from the other areas of the Stock Market will balance things out.
This is the approach that we take to betting on MMA. We use our Fight Research to dig for strong positions on a wide range of MMA bets spanning across various types of Prefight Bets, Prop Bets, and Live Bets. This means that when one type of bet may not be performing well, hopefully, the other types of bets will balance things out. This helps us continue to grind out long-term profits, even when certain types of bets may be going through short periods of bad variance.
By taking this diversified approach to betting, we can also use different betting/staking strategies for each type of bet so that we are betting in an optimal way. By breaking things down into different categories, we can also cut out certain types of bets that may not be performing well. This enables us to constantly tweak the way we do things to maximize the amount of money that we can make.
Loose Prefight Bets
Loose Bets are where we have identified clear and obvious advantages for a fighter over their opponent. Loose Bets can also be where we’ve found an underdog that has a good risk to reward ratio, even though they may not have the best chance of winning.
The number of Loose Bets that we have can differ significantly from event to event. Sometimes we may just have 1 or 2 Loose Bets and at other times we may have 7-10 bets. For this reason, correct bankroll management is essential, so that you don’t have too big of a percentage of your bankroll at risk on those events where we have a higher volume of bets than usual. Remember that anything can happen in MMA and on any given night every bet could lose.
Ideally you never want to risk more than 20% of your bankroll on a single event and it’s important to use Compound Interest to protect yourself even further by scaling stake size up and down regularly. This will enable you to maximise the amount of money you can make in an uptrend, while protecting you from losing everything in a downtrend.
Learn from a Professional Gambler
All the Betting Tips and alternate fight commentary on this website is given to you by Professional Gambler, Chris Allsopp.
Allsopp earns a living from betting on MMA. His in depth written breakdowns and fight commentary during UFC events will tell you exactly which fighters to bet on. In time you will also learn how to accurately predict the outcome of fights yourself. Allsopp also shares his knowledge and experience on money management and the Investment techniques that he uses to grow his bankroll.
In 2018 he appeared on the Fight Disciples Podcast to talk about his career as a Professional Gambler. You should give it a listen…
In-Play Betting Tips
Everyone suffers from bad days, and UFC fighters are no different. When we place pre-fight bets, we can never know whether or not a fighter is going to show up and perform to their full potential. They may be suffering from injuries, they may be battling personal issues, or they may have experienced a brutal weight cut. All of these factors can negatively impact how a fighter performs, and no amount of research can predict that.
Most betting websites now offer Live In-Play betting. This means that we can bet on fights while they take place. This enables us to see exactly how a fighter is performing before we bet on them. Over the years I have developed many strategies that enable me to predict how a fight will play out after observing just the first few minutes of a matchup. This allows us to avoid the pitfalls of gambling prefight and make massive profits from Live In-Play betting.
Unfortunately we have to cap the number of people in our In-Play Betting group because the more people that try to place the same bets at the same time, the faster the odds become suspended. If you’re interested in joining the In-Play Betting group please contact Allsopp.
In-Play Betting Results by event
|wdt_ID||Date||Event||Profit / Loss in units|
|1||21/02/2016||UFC Fight Night 83 - Cerrone vs Oliveira||11.26|
|2||05/03/2016||UFC 196 - Diaz vs McGregor||24.44|
|3||20/03/2016||UFC Fight Night 85 - Hunt vs Mir||8.70|
|4||16/04/2016||UFC on FOX 19 - Evans vs Teixeira||4.65|
|5||23/04/2016||UFC 197 - Jones vs OSP||6.47|
|6||08/05/2016||UFC Fight Night 87 - Arlovski vs Overeem||-1.40|
|7||14/05/2016||UFC 198 - Miocic vs Werdum||10.92|
|8||30/05/2016||UFC Fight Night 88 - Almeida vs Garbrandt||2.78|
|9||04/06/2016||UFC 199 - Bisping vs Rockhold||-1.81|
|10||18/06/2016||UFC Fight Night 89 - MacDonald vs Thompson||1.70|
|wdt_ID||Date||Event||Profit / Loss in units|
These articles contain:
– Breakdown Videos for every fight
– Fight Research Videos
– A list of fights that we still have to research
Tight Bets are where we identify a clear edge over the bookie when we compare the probability we believe a fighter has of winning based on our research, compared to the implied probability in the fighter’s odds.
These bets have a long, profitable history, and due to their large sample size, they’re the safest kind of bet you’ll find on the website after Allsopp’s highly profitable In-Play Betting Tips.
We don’t give many of these bets out each month because it’s rare to find situations where there is a ton of value in the odds. This is no surprise with how many eyeballs there are on UFC fights these days. Because these bets are low volume, they are prone to lengthy swings in both directions.
We only tend to discover 2 or 3 of these bets every month which means uptrends can last a long time and so can downtrends. This is because there aren’t a high enough volume of bets to quickly change trends. Patience is essential when tailing these Tight Bets.
“Change is the law of Life. And those that look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future”
John F. Kennedy
Over / Under Bets
Our Over / Under Lab experiment focuses on betting fights to end over or under a certain amount of time. They also target the “Fight does” or “Does not” go the distance bets. These bets have become one of the most profitable types of bets in our community.
These Over / Under bets are perfect for capitalizing on situations where it may be difficult to determine who is more likely to win a fight, but it may be very clear, based on how two fighters match up from a stylistic point of view, how long the fight is likely to last.
Allsopp uses the same Fight Research process as his other bets to scout for good value Over / Under bets, and while he may not find them as often as some of the other kinds of bets on the website when he does find them, they tend to win a very high percentage of the time.
Our high win rate on these kinds of bets is extremely promising. If Allsopp can continue this level of performance, these Over / Under bets will produce huge profits for us in the future.
“Time is your friend. Impulse is your enemy”
– Jack Bogle, Vanguard CEO
Even Money Bets
Even Money bets are where Allsopp is forced to pick a winner on every fight in the even money odds range between 1.65 | -154 and 2.30 | +130. The theory being that no matter what mathematical edge the bookies may have, our knowledge of the sport, fight research and ability to gamble effectively will outperform the bookies on bets in this odds range, where the odds effectively suggest that the matchup is close to a coinflip.
By using our fight research to lean towards one fighter or the other in a matchup that is perceived to be a coinflip, over the long term we should be able to outperform the odds and grind out a solid long term profit.
The terms of this type of bet state that Allsopp has to put in a pick for every single fight on a UFC event in an even money odds range. He will put an asterisk next to any fights where he can’t pick a side and he agrees that it is a 50/50 fight. In this instance he will usually pick the underdog for the better risk to reward ratio.
“Understanding both the power of Compound Interest and the difficulty of getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things.”
– Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway
Prop Bets are different from most of the bets you’ll find on this website because they’re the only types of bets where we are not trying to bet on the most likely outcome. Instead, we are betting on the volatility of the sport of MMA to seek out high risk / high reward bets that have a good risk to reward ratio.
I prefer this approach to Props because it’s very hard to make money betting MMA when you are simply trying to predict who is more likely to win a fight. When we add another layer of variability on top with the method of victory, it becomes even more difficult to predict the most likely outcome and win bets.
Instead, I take a spread betting approach to Props where instead of betting on likely outcomes at short odds, I look to Capitalize on the chaos of MMA by betting Props that have a reasonably good chance of winning with very favorable odds. Because we are not betting on likely outcomes and instead trying to profit from hitting the occasional big winner, the win rate on props is very bad, and the swings are extreme.