TUF 28 Finale Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

The upcoming week is one of the busiest weeks of the year for us with 2 UFC events, 2 Bellator events and 1 KSW event taking place over the next 7 days. We’ve already made a decent profit this year in both prefight and Live Betting and this final busy stretch is our chance to put our stamp on 2018 and end the year big.

I’ll be working flat out over the next 7 days to give us the best chance of banking a solid profit. I won’t be going outside, I won’t be washing and I probably won’t have time to eat either! This busy run of events means that I may not be in the Chat Room as much as I usually am because I need to spend all my time researching fights. If you need me for something urgent please send me an email at info@mmabettingtips.com.

Fight Betting Tip Pick
Kamaru Usman vs Rafael Dos Anjos 2 unit, 2 leg parlay accumulator on Kamaru Usman and Pedro Munhoz to win at odds of 2.00 |
+100 | 1/1
Usman and Munhoz to win
Bryan Caraway vs Pedro Munhoz
Macy Chiasson vs Pannie Kianzad No bet Kianzad to win
Antonina Shevchenko vs Ji Yeon Kim No bet Shevchenko to win
Alex Perez vs Joseph Benavidez 2 units on Alex Perez to win at odds of 1.81 | -123 | 81/100 Perez to win
Ricky Rainey vs Tim Means No bet Means to win
Edmen Shahbazyan vs Darren Stewart No bet Stewart to win
Darrell Horcher vs Roosevelt Roberts No bet Roberts to win
Chris Gutierrez vs Raoni Barcelos No bet Barcelos to win
Maurice Greene vs Michel Batista No bet Batista to win
Julia Stoliarenko vs Leah Letson No bet Letson to win
Rick Glenn vs Kevin Aguilar No bet Aguilar to win
Juan Espino vs Justin Frazier No bet Espino to win

Alex Perez vs Joseph Benavidez Betting Tip and Prediction

In an interview this past week, Joseph Benavidez said that he was proud to have been involved in the first ever Flyweight fight in the UFC. He was also proud that he was the only Flyweight still competing in the UFC from way back when they first created the division in 2012. Longevity is something that is so hard to achieve at the highest level of MMA because the constant injuries start to add up and over time your opponents continue to get better and better and close the gap on you.

Benavidez’s fight this weekend against Alex Perez will be his 16th in the UFC, with many of those matchups going the distance. No other fighter currently on the UFC roster has spent as much time in the Octagon as Benavidez, and in his last few fights, there have been signs that all the wars have started to catch up with him.

At 34 years old Benavidez isn’t that far past his physical prime, but in terms of mileage his body is probably beat up pretty badly. Benavidez has always had a solid chin, but Pettis seemed to wobble him almost every time he landed a clean, hard shot in his last fight. They say that the chin is the first thing to go when a fighter starts to age and with Benavidez being dropped in his last two fights against Pettis and Cejudo perhaps the writing is already on the wall.

Benavidez has only lost 1 fight in his last 6, but it’s been a long time since we saw him dominate anyone. Benavidez has been able to grind out wins with his toughness, determination, and cardio but his skills are starting to fall short. We saw him really struggle in his last fight against Sergio Pettis when he couldn’t get a takedown. Benavidez lacks a Plan B when he can’t get fights to the ground.

I have wanted to bet Alex Perez to beat Joseph Benavidez all week, but I felt that if we waited, we could get Perez at better odds because he’s virtually unknown amongst casual bettors while Benavidez is a popular, high profile fighter. Unfortunately, after seeing the weigh-ins I don’t think we can wait any longer. Perez towered over Benavidez, and I fear that his odds might get hammered if we don’t lock in our bets fast. When people see the size difference in this matchup, I expect a lot of bets to come in on Perez.

Alex Perez has looked outstanding in his 3 fights in the UFC, and his massive size advantage over Benavidez gives him a golden opportunity to pick up a big win over a big name.

Perez’s size advantage will make it extremely difficult for Benavidez to take this fight to the ground and even harder for him to land anything significant if Perez chooses to try and keep this fight standing. If this fight does go to the ground the size difference will also make it very difficult for Benavidez to hold Perez down.

I believe that Alex Perez is a great bet to beat Joseph Benavidez because he is potentially better than Benavidez everywhere. He’s certainly a significantly better striker, and his ground game also looks extremely technical. Benavidez is very high level on the ground, but Perez has long limbs that enable him to control his opponents and tie them up in nasty submissions.

If this fight stays standing, I expect Perez to dominate. Benavidez is tough and aggressive, but he does not have the technique to get inside on Perez and hurt him with significant strikes. Perez’s easiest path to victory is to use his wrestling in reverse to keep this fight standing and pick Benavidez apart.

Based on Perez’s recent fights I don’t believe that Benavidez will be able to take him down, but if this fight does go to the ground, Perez has shown a high-level ground game that he can use to either work his way back to his feet or use to try and put Benavidez in some bad positions.

Joseph Benavidez is a legend of the sport, but his last few performances suggest that he hasn’t evolved enough to compete against the new breed of Mixed Martial Artists. With a pro-MMA record of 21-4, Perez is a dangerous, experienced fighter and at just 26 years old he’s still making massive improvements. At almost even money I think Perez is a great bet.

Reasons for betting on Alex Perez

  • Alex Perez has a huge size advantage over Joseph Benavidez.
  • Alex Perez is a significantly better striker than Joseph Benavidez.
  • Alex Perez has strong wrestling and a high level ground game.
  • Alex Perez appears to be making big improvements from fight to fight.
  • Joseph Benavidez badly struggles to put his stamp on rounds if he cannot take his opponent down. I don’t believe he’ll be able to take Perez down and hold him down.
  • Alex Perez is extremely active on the ground. He is always hunting for submissions or looking to improve his position.
  • Benavidez built his career off takedowns, top control and by controlling the center of the Octagon with a high pressure style of fighting. These strategies have all been devalued under the new judges scoring criteria. The new scoring criteria will make it even harder for Benavidez to win fights.
  • Alex Perez has crisp, sharp striking with KO power.
  • The size difference in this matchup will make it difficult for Benavidez to get into Boxing range and land anything significant.
  • The size difference in this matchup will make it extremely difficult for Benavidez to take Perez down and hold him down.
  • Benavidez has been rocked and dropped multiple times in his last two fights.
  • Joseph Benavidez has a lot of miles on the clock. All the wars might be starting to catchup with him.

Risk Factors with betting on Alex Perez

  • Alex Perez is taking this fight on 3 weeks notice.
  • Joseph Benavidez is extremely tough, he has excellent cardio and he’s highly skilled in all areas.
  • Benavidez fights at a very high pace.
  • This is a massive step up in competition for Perez.

My Betting Tip

Alex Perez to win

Recommended Stake

2 Units

[2% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.81
Moneyline = -123
Fractional = 81/100

55%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Alex Perez has a 55% chance of beating Joseph Benavidez based on their current odds.

60%

Our Probability

I believe that Alex Perez has a 60% chance of beating Joseph Benavidez based on my extensive research and analysis.

Kamaru Usman vs Rafael Dos Anjos Betting Tip and Prediction

In my last betting tip on Alex Perez to beat Joseph Benavidez, I talked about how I believe size will have an impact on how that matchup will play out and I think size will also be a significant factor in the fight between Dos Anjos and Usman.

If you look at the weigh-in picture of Usman and Dos Anjos, you won’t see a profound difference in size, but Dos Anjos stands at just 5 ft 8 with a 70-inch reach, while Usman is 6 ft tall with a monster 77.5-inch reach. This size difference will make it extremely difficult for RDA to get inside and land power shots and it’ll also make it extremely hard for him to defend takedowns. That monster 77.5-inch reach advantage makes it much easier for Usman to wrap his arms around his opponent’s body, connect his hands and drag them to the ground.

This will be RDA’s 5th fight since moving up to the Welterweight division. His size disadvantage has caused him to struggle in 3 out of his 4 matchups in the division so far. Aside from his dominant performance against Neil Magny he has struggled to back up Robbie Lawler, Tarec Saffiedine and Colby Covington at 170 pounds. Against Saffiedine he looked flat and sloppy. Against Lawler, he struggled to get his back off the cage and gain respect from his strikes and against Covington he could not keep the fight standing.

Rafael Dos Anjos is perhaps one of the best examples of why size matters in MMA. In the 155 division, he was a ferocious striker, while at 170 we have seen multiple guys walk through his power strikes. I believe this will be the difference in this fight. I don’t believe Dos Anjos has the power at Welterweight to stop Usman from coming forward, driving him into the cage and working for takedowns.

Dos Anjos is a high-level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Black Belt, but I was surprised at how easy Colby was able to control his body and drag him to the ground. Colby didn’t even use particularly good technique to wet blanket RDA for 5 rounds, so I believe there’s a good chance Usman can put in an even more dominant performance than what Colby did.

On paper, Colby Covington has a higher level wrestling pedigree than Usman, but for me, Usman is a much tougher matchup for RDA than Colby was. This is because Usman’s cardio is much better than Colby’s and he’s also much more physically imposing. Usman can push a much higher pace than Colby can, and he can continue to use superb technical wrestling in the later stages of the fight. Colby started to look really sloppy in the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds against RDA when he started to get tired and yet he was still able to complete multiple takedowns using very poor technique. It’s extremely unlikely that Usman will slow down like Colby did, which means he’ll still have rock solid wrestling technique even very late on in this matchup.

One major factor that made it easy for Colby to continue taking RDA down is that RDA kept on giving up control of his back when trying to defend takedowns. This is significant because Usman is very good at taking the back and turning back control into takedowns. It won’t be easy for RDA to tighten up this weakness in his defense because Usman’s long limbs make it hard for anyone to stop him tieing up their body and connecting his hands together.

If this fight stays standing RDA has a huge advantage, but I just don’t see RDA being able to stop Usman from driving him into the cage and tieing him up.

I believe Kamaru Usman is a great bet in this fight because he has the chin, toughness, and durability to take RDA’s best shots and walk through them. Based on RDA’s performance against Colby Covington I don’t believe he’ll be able to stop Usman from wrapping his arms around his body and controlling him for the majority of the 5 rounds. This is an extremely tough matchup for RDA. Usman should win easily.

Reasons for betting on Kamaru Usman

  • Kamaru Usman has a big size advantage over Rafael Dos Anjos. Dos Anjos is 5 ft 8 with a 70 inch reach, while Usman is 6 ft tall with a 77.5 inch reach.
  • Rafael Dos Anjos lacks power at 170 pounds. He struggles to back people up with his strikes.
  • Usman has a great chin and he’s very tough.
  • Usman has excellent cardio. He can fight at a high pace for 5 rounds.
  • Usman’s long limbs enable him to connect his hands around his opponents body and drag them to the ground.
  • Rafael Dos Anjos gave up takedowns very easily in his last fight against Colby Covington.
  • Dos Anjos will most likely struggle with Usman’s physicality.
  • Rafael Dos Anjos does not have the power at 170 to stop Usman from coming forward.
  • Rafael Dos Anjos gives up his back when defending takedowns. Usman loves to take the back and control his opponents from this position.

Risk Factors with betting on Kamaru Usman

  • Rafael Dos Anjos is a significantly better striker than Kamaru Usman.
  • Rafael Dos Anjos is a high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Black Belt.
  • Kamaru Usman can sometimes be reckless when pressuring his opponent.

Bryan Caraway vs Pedro Munhoz Betting Tip and Prediction

I don’t love the odds on Pedro Munhoz in this fight, but at the same time, I don’t see him losing unless he has a bad off night. The reality is that Munhoz has a massive technical advantage wherever this fight takes place. If it stays standing, he should be able to pick Caraway apart with his far superior striking, and if it goes to the ground, he should have an advantage with his high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

Caraway is tough, with strong wrestling and a relentless style of fighting, but that’s pretty much all he brings to the table here. These assets make him a difficult opponent against average grapplers, but Munhoz is so high level on the ground that I really feel Caraway is going to struggle badly in this matchup. There are levels to the ground game, and Munhoz is simply several levels above Caraway.

Munhoz has made massive improvements in every area since moving his training to American Top Team. There’s no doubt that he has the skills to dominate Caraway wherever this matchup takes place.

The reasoning behind this bet is not that complex. Munhoz is simply better everywhere. He has significantly better striking and a significantly better ground game. Munhoz should beat Caraway easily.

Reasons for betting on Pedro Munhoz

  • Pedro Munhoz is significantly better than Bryan Caraway in every single aspect of MMA.
  • Pedro Munhoz has shown big improvements from fight to fight since he started training at American Top Team.
  • Bryan Caraway is a very low level striker. He has sloppy technique and he’s bad defensively.
  • Pedro Munhoz throws a diverse range of strikes. He possesses great Boxing and solid kicks.
  • Pedro Munhoz is extremely tough. He has a great chin. He doesn’t mind getting sucked into a war.
  • Pedro Munhoz has strong MMA wrestling. He’s difficult to take down and very tricky on the ground. He’s constantly attacking.
  • Pedro Munhoz is a very high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Black Belt.
  • Pedro Munhoz should be able to keep this fight standing and pick Caraway apart with his superior striking.

Risk Factors with betting on Pedro Munhoz

  • Bryan Caraway is a strong wrestler.
  • Bryan Caraway has a very heavy top game.
  • Bryan Caraway is tough and he has excellent cardio.
  • Bryan Caraway fights at a relentless pace.

My Betting Tip

Usman and Munhoz to win

Recommended Stake

2 Units

[2% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 2.00
Moneyline = +100
Fractional = 1/1

50%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Pedro Munhoz and Kamaru Usman have a 50% chance of winning based on their current odds.

60%

Our Probability

I believe that Pedro Munhoz and Kamaru Usman have a 60% chance of winning based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

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