The upcoming week is one of the busiest weeks of the year for us with 2 UFC events, 2 Bellator events and 1 KSW event taking place over the next 7 days. We’ve already made a decent profit this year in both prefight and Live Betting and this final busy stretch is our chance to put our stamp on 2018 and end the year big.
I’ll be working flat out over the next 7 days to give us the best chance of banking a solid profit. I won’t be going outside, I won’t be washing and I probably won’t have time to eat either! This busy run of events means that I may not be in the Chat Room as much as I usually am because I need to spend all my time researching fights. If you need me for something urgent please send me an email at firstname.lastname@example.org.
|Kamaru Usman vs Rafael Dos Anjos||2 unit, 2 leg parlay accumulator on Kamaru Usman and Pedro Munhoz to win at odds of 2.00 |
+100 | 1/1
|Usman and Munhoz to win|
|Bryan Caraway vs Pedro Munhoz|
|Macy Chiasson vs Pannie Kianzad||No bet||Kianzad to win|
|Antonina Shevchenko vs Ji Yeon Kim||No bet||Shevchenko to win|
|Alex Perez vs Joseph Benavidez||2 units on Alex Perez to win at odds of 1.81 | -123 | 81/100||Perez to win|
|Ricky Rainey vs Tim Means||No bet||Means to win|
|Edmen Shahbazyan vs Darren Stewart||No bet||Stewart to win|
|Darrell Horcher vs Roosevelt Roberts||No bet||Roberts to win|
|Chris Gutierrez vs Raoni Barcelos||No bet||Barcelos to win|
|Maurice Greene vs Michel Batista||No bet||Batista to win|
|Julia Stoliarenko vs Leah Letson||No bet||Letson to win|
|Rick Glenn vs Kevin Aguilar||No bet||Aguilar to win|
|Juan Espino vs Justin Frazier||No bet||Espino to win|
Alex Perez vs Joseph Benavidez Betting Tip and Prediction
In an interview this past week, Joseph Benavidez said that he was proud to have been involved in the first ever Flyweight fight in the UFC. He was also proud that he was the only Flyweight still competing in the UFC from way back when they first created the division in 2012. Longevity is something that is so hard to achieve at the highest level of MMA because the constant injuries start to add up and over time your opponents continue to get better and better and close the gap on you.
Benavidez’s fight this weekend against Alex Perez will be his 16th in the UFC, with many of those matchups going the distance. No other fighter currently on the UFC roster has spent as much time in the Octagon as Benavidez, and in his last few fights, there have been signs that all the wars have started to catch up with him.
At 34 years old Benavidez isn’t that far past his physical prime, but in terms of mileage his body is probably beat up pretty badly. Benavidez has always had a solid chin, but Pettis seemed to wobble him almost every time he landed a clean, hard shot in his last fight. They say that the chin is the first thing to go when a fighter starts to age and with Benavidez being dropped in his last two fights against Pettis and Cejudo perhaps the writing is already on the wall.
Benavidez has only lost 1 fight in his last 6, but it’s been a long time since we saw him dominate anyone. Benavidez has been able to grind out wins with his toughness, determination, and cardio but his skills are starting to fall short. We saw him really struggle in his last fight against Sergio Pettis when he couldn’t get a takedown. Benavidez lacks a Plan B when he can’t get fights to the ground.
I have wanted to bet Alex Perez to beat Joseph Benavidez all week, but I felt that if we waited, we could get Perez at better odds because he’s virtually unknown amongst casual bettors while Benavidez is a popular, high profile fighter. Unfortunately, after seeing the weigh-ins I don’t think we can wait any longer. Perez towered over Benavidez, and I fear that his odds might get hammered if we don’t lock in our bets fast. When people see the size difference in this matchup, I expect a lot of bets to come in on Perez.
Alex Perez has looked outstanding in his 3 fights in the UFC, and his massive size advantage over Benavidez gives him a golden opportunity to pick up a big win over a big name.
Perez’s size advantage will make it extremely difficult for Benavidez to take this fight to the ground and even harder for him to land anything significant if Perez chooses to try and keep this fight standing. If this fight does go to the ground the size difference will also make it very difficult for Benavidez to hold Perez down.
I believe that Alex Perez is a great bet to beat Joseph Benavidez because he is potentially better than Benavidez everywhere. He’s certainly a significantly better striker, and his ground game also looks extremely technical. Benavidez is very high level on the ground, but Perez has long limbs that enable him to control his opponents and tie them up in nasty submissions.
If this fight stays standing, I expect Perez to dominate. Benavidez is tough and aggressive, but he does not have the technique to get inside on Perez and hurt him with significant strikes. Perez’s easiest path to victory is to use his wrestling in reverse to keep this fight standing and pick Benavidez apart.
Based on Perez’s recent fights I don’t believe that Benavidez will be able to take him down, but if this fight does go to the ground, Perez has shown a high-level ground game that he can use to either work his way back to his feet or use to try and put Benavidez in some bad positions.
Joseph Benavidez is a legend of the sport, but his last few performances suggest that he hasn’t evolved enough to compete against the new breed of Mixed Martial Artists. With a pro-MMA record of 21-4, Perez is a dangerous, experienced fighter and at just 26 years old he’s still making massive improvements. At almost even money I think Perez is a great bet.
Reasons for betting on Alex Perez
Risk Factors with betting on Alex Perez
My Betting Tip
Alex Perez to win
[2% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.81
Moneyline = -123
Fractional = 81/100
The bookies believe that Alex Perez has a 55% chance of beating Joseph Benavidez based on their current odds.
Kamaru Usman vs Rafael Dos Anjos Betting Tip and Prediction
In my last betting tip on Alex Perez to beat Joseph Benavidez, I talked about how I believe size will have an impact on how that matchup will play out and I think size will also be a significant factor in the fight between Dos Anjos and Usman.
If you look at the weigh-in picture of Usman and Dos Anjos, you won’t see a profound difference in size, but Dos Anjos stands at just 5 ft 8 with a 70-inch reach, while Usman is 6 ft tall with a monster 77.5-inch reach. This size difference will make it extremely difficult for RDA to get inside and land power shots and it’ll also make it extremely hard for him to defend takedowns. That monster 77.5-inch reach advantage makes it much easier for Usman to wrap his arms around his opponent’s body, connect his hands and drag them to the ground.
This will be RDA’s 5th fight since moving up to the Welterweight division. His size disadvantage has caused him to struggle in 3 out of his 4 matchups in the division so far. Aside from his dominant performance against Neil Magny he has struggled to back up Robbie Lawler, Tarec Saffiedine and Colby Covington at 170 pounds. Against Saffiedine he looked flat and sloppy. Against Lawler, he struggled to get his back off the cage and gain respect from his strikes and against Covington he could not keep the fight standing.
Rafael Dos Anjos is perhaps one of the best examples of why size matters in MMA. In the 155 division, he was a ferocious striker, while at 170 we have seen multiple guys walk through his power strikes. I believe this will be the difference in this fight. I don’t believe Dos Anjos has the power at Welterweight to stop Usman from coming forward, driving him into the cage and working for takedowns.
Dos Anjos is a high-level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Black Belt, but I was surprised at how easy Colby was able to control his body and drag him to the ground. Colby didn’t even use particularly good technique to wet blanket RDA for 5 rounds, so I believe there’s a good chance Usman can put in an even more dominant performance than what Colby did.
On paper, Colby Covington has a higher level wrestling pedigree than Usman, but for me, Usman is a much tougher matchup for RDA than Colby was. This is because Usman’s cardio is much better than Colby’s and he’s also much more physically imposing. Usman can push a much higher pace than Colby can, and he can continue to use superb technical wrestling in the later stages of the fight. Colby started to look really sloppy in the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds against RDA when he started to get tired and yet he was still able to complete multiple takedowns using very poor technique. It’s extremely unlikely that Usman will slow down like Colby did, which means he’ll still have rock solid wrestling technique even very late on in this matchup.
One major factor that made it easy for Colby to continue taking RDA down is that RDA kept on giving up control of his back when trying to defend takedowns. This is significant because Usman is very good at taking the back and turning back control into takedowns. It won’t be easy for RDA to tighten up this weakness in his defense because Usman’s long limbs make it hard for anyone to stop him tieing up their body and connecting his hands together.
If this fight stays standing RDA has a huge advantage, but I just don’t see RDA being able to stop Usman from driving him into the cage and tieing him up.
I believe Kamaru Usman is a great bet in this fight because he has the chin, toughness, and durability to take RDA’s best shots and walk through them. Based on RDA’s performance against Colby Covington I don’t believe he’ll be able to stop Usman from wrapping his arms around his body and controlling him for the majority of the 5 rounds. This is an extremely tough matchup for RDA. Usman should win easily.
Reasons for betting on Kamaru Usman
Risk Factors with betting on Kamaru Usman
Bryan Caraway vs Pedro Munhoz Betting Tip and Prediction
I don’t love the odds on Pedro Munhoz in this fight, but at the same time, I don’t see him losing unless he has a bad off night. The reality is that Munhoz has a massive technical advantage wherever this fight takes place. If it stays standing, he should be able to pick Caraway apart with his far superior striking, and if it goes to the ground, he should have an advantage with his high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
Caraway is tough, with strong wrestling and a relentless style of fighting, but that’s pretty much all he brings to the table here. These assets make him a difficult opponent against average grapplers, but Munhoz is so high level on the ground that I really feel Caraway is going to struggle badly in this matchup. There are levels to the ground game, and Munhoz is simply several levels above Caraway.
Munhoz has made massive improvements in every area since moving his training to American Top Team. There’s no doubt that he has the skills to dominate Caraway wherever this matchup takes place.
The reasoning behind this bet is not that complex. Munhoz is simply better everywhere. He has significantly better striking and a significantly better ground game. Munhoz should beat Caraway easily.
Reasons for betting on Pedro Munhoz
Risk Factors with betting on Pedro Munhoz
My Betting Tip
Usman and Munhoz to win
[2% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 2.00
Moneyline = +100
Fractional = 1/1
The bookies believe that Pedro Munhoz and Kamaru Usman have a 50% chance of winning based on their current odds.