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UFC 212 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

UFC 212 is headlined by a main event fight between Jose Aldo and Max Holloway.

During my research I have found a few solid betting tips for UFC 212. We’re 5-1 on the last 6 events and I feel very confident that we can bank another profit on Saturday night.

I also want to remind you that I will be offering my Live Betting Tips for free during UFC 212.

Nordicflight was kind enough to go through our Live Betting results over the last year and he calculated that we’ve gone 32-10 on the last 42 events in live betting. This has resulted in a total profit of over 190 units and an average profit of almost 5 units per event. This is an extremely impressive win rate and I expect to continue this success long into the future.

I urge you to join us in our Live Betting Tips Chatroom during UFC 212 to take advantage of these FREE betting tips that I have been sharing for over a year. Sometime in the next few weeks I will be reintroducing paid subscriptions, so please take advantage of these free tips whilst you still can!

Don’t forget to keep checking this article regularly for updates because we’ll be adding more betting tips as we get closer to the time of the event.

FightsBetting Tips
Jose Aldo vs Max HollowayBetting Tip Available
Claudia Gadelha vs Karolina KowalkiewiczBetting Tip Available
Nate Marquardt vs Vitor BelfortBetting Tip Available
Erick Silva vs Yancy MedeirosNo bet
Paulo Borrachinha vs Oluwale BamgboseNo bet
Marlon Moraes vs Raphael AssuncaoNo bet
Antonio Carlos Junior vs Eric SpicelyNo bet
Johnny Eduardo vs Matthew LopezNo bet
Brian Kelleher vs Iuri AlcantaraNo bet
Jamie Moyle vs Viviane PereiraStill researching
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Marco Beltran2 units on Marco Beltran to win at odds of 2.25 | +125 | 5/4
Jim Wallhead vs Luan ChagasNo bet

Betting Tip 1: Vitor Belfort to beat Nate Marquardt

Vitor Belfort and Nate Marquardt are two veteran fighters who have been on a steep decline since the UFC introduced strict USADA drug testing in their organization. Both fighters have a history of using performance enhancing drugs, but Marquardt seems to have lost his confidence, whilst Belfort still shows flashes of his former self.

Betting on a 40 year old ex drug user is never going to be a safe bet, but Belfort does have several things going for him in this matchup…

Firstly, in recent fights he has shown flashes of the speed, power and athleticism that helped him build a very successful career in the UFC. Secondly he has home advantage on his side and thirdly he is fighting an opponent in Nate Marquardt that appears to have lost his confidence.

In order to beat Vitor Belfort you need to pressure him, trap him and ultimately break him, but Marquardt doesn’t have that style of fighting anymore. In his last few fights he has been content to have a friendly kickboxing match and that kind of tactic will not serve him well against Vitor. I’ve also noticed that Marquardt struggles to find his range and he doesn’t seem able to let his hands go. In recent fights he seems to have lost the ability to pull the trigger. You’ll see him correctly read his opponent, get into a good position, motion to throw a strike, but he just cannot let it go. This is a sign of a fighter who has declined to the point where they don’t have the fast reflexes required to compete at the highest level of the sport anymore. Vitor Belfort has also declined in many areas, but he still has the speed, timing and explosiveness that has helped him to become one of the most dangerous fighters of all time.

Vitor Belfort isn’t a rock solid bet, but I’ll take a shot on him at the current odds…

Reasons for placing this bet...

  • Vitor Belfort still has his speed, power and explosiveness.
  • Vitor Belfort has landed big strikes on all his recent opponent’s. I don’t believe Marquardt could take those strikes at this stage in his career.
  • Vitor Belfort still seems to have the will to win, whilst Marquardt appears to have lost his competitive drive.
  • Vitor Belfort performs well when he has time and space to work out his opponent. He does not react well to pressure. Marquardt is not a pressure fighter, he has been very tentative in recent fights. I believe he’ll allow Belfort to dictate the pace which means he’ll ultimate get KO’d or lose a decision.
  • Vitor Belfort has home advantage.
  • Marquardt struggles to let his hands go. He is very tentative.
  • Marquardt doesn’t push the pace and he cannot make adjustments when he is clearly losing.
  • Vitor Belfort has KO power in every strike.
  • Vitor Belfort is a Southpaw.
  • Vitor Belfort still has excellent distance control and timing.

Risk Factors...

  • Vitor Belfort is 40 years old.
  • Vitor Belfort has a long history of using Performance Enhancing Drugs.
  • Vitor Belfort is on a steep decline.
  • Nate Marquardt has KO power.
  • Vitor Belfort could fade fast if he aggressively pursues a finish in the 1st round, but does not score a KO.

Our Betting Tip

Vitor Belfort to win

Stake

2 Units

[2% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.63
Moneyline = -160
Fractional = 63/100

61%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Vitor Belfort has a 61% chance of beating Nate Marquardt based on their current odds.

65%

Our Probability

We believe that Vitor Belfort has a 65% chance of beating Nate Marquardt based on our extensive research and analysis.

Betting Tip 2: Karolina Kowalkiewicz to beat Claudia Gadelha

A very high proportion of Women’s MMA fights end up being very close and I believe that this fight will follow that trend and end in a close decision…

I recommend betting on Karolina Kowalkiewicz to win but this bet will not be an easy winner. I expect this fight to be scrappy, close and ultimately someone will win a split decision. Normally I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting against a Brazilian in Brazil in what is likely to be a close fight, but judging in Brazil in the last 12 months has been very good and I believe the current odds on Kowalkiewicz is definitely worth the risk.

The main reason why I have decided to bet Karolina Kowalkiewicz is her ability to defend takedowns and inflict damage in the clinch. She has great balance, a strong core, good takedown defence and she does a great job of landing powerful knees and nasty elbows when her opponent ties her up. The clinch is one of Karolina Kowalkiewicz’s strongest positions and it is also the position in which Gadelha chooses to initiate the majority of her takedown attempts. I believe that Kowalkiewicz has the takedown defence to keep this fight standing or at the very least make Gadelha work extremely hard early on, which will test Gadelha’s questionable cardio and pay dividents later on in the fight.

Kowalkiewicz has many weaknesses, but she’s tough, aggressive and she fights at a very high pace. I do not believe Gadelha has the cardio to keep up with her for 3 rounds, so there’s a good chance that Kowalkiewicz can outwork her and grind out an ugly decision win.

At the current odds I believe that Karolina Kowalkiewicz is very a good bet…

Reasons for placing this bet...

  • Karolina Kowalkiewicz has excellent cardio.
  • Karolina Kowalkiewicz is very aggressive and fights at a relentless pace.
  • Karolina Kowalkiewicz is extremely tough.
  • Karolina Kowalkiewicz has a strong core, good balance and solid takedown defence.
  • Karolina Kowalkiewicz does a good job of scrambling back to her feet when she gets taken down.
  • Karolina Kowalkiewicz can make Gadelha work very hard for takedowns, which will accelerate the rate at which Gadelha gets tired.
  • Karolina Kowalkiewicz is very skilled in the clinch position. She is able to do a tremendous amount of damage from the clinch position whilst defending takedowns.
  • Claudia Gadelha has poor cardio and a low output in open striking exchanges.
  • Historically Gadelha has struggled to hold some of her opponent’s down.
  • Gadelha is not an efficient wrestler. She uses a lot of energy when working for takedowns.

Risk Factors...

  • Claudia Gadelha has home advantage.
  • Claudia Gadelha is a very skilled grappler.
  • Karolina Kowalkiewicz has very poor striking defence.
  • Claudia Gadelha has been training at high altitude with Jackson Wink MMA.
  • Our Betting Tip

    Karolina Kowalkiewicz to win

    Stake

    1 Unit

    [1% of your bankroll]

    Odds

    Decimal = 3.96
    Moneyline = +296
    Fractional = 74/25

    25%

    Implied Probability

    The bookies believe that Karolina Kowalkiewicz has a 25% chance of beating Claudia based on their current odds.

    50%

    Our Probability

    We believe that Karolina Kowalkiewicz has a 50% chance of beating Claudia Gadelha based on our extensive research and analysis.

    Betting Tip 3: Jose Aldo to beat Max Holloway

    Before researching this fight I didn’t have a strong opinion either way on who I felt would win. I leaned slightly towards Max Holloway but I certainly didn’t plant my flag on either side. You will often see me completely pass on a fight in situations like this where my opinion is split and there doesn’t appear to be much value on either side of the betting lines.

    The great part about being an MMA handicapper for as long as I have is that you learn to keep an open mind and also learn ways in which you can avoid confirmation bias. Most of the time when I research fights my initial thoughts prove to be correct, but sometimes I run into situations where my initial thoughts were completely wrong. This fight is one of those situations. After watching footage on both guys I went from feeling like Max Holloway would win to feeling extremely confident that Jose Aldo would win…

    I am a big fan of Max Holloway because he is ruthlessly consistent, he has a ton of heart and he is also skilled everywhere. He’s also tough, aggressive and has cardio for days. These are all the characteristics I look for when betting on a fighter, but after watching Jose Aldo’s recent fights I was surprised to see that he is significantly better than Holloway in every single aspect of MMA. Aldo is also significantly faster than Holloway and his striking defence could be the best out of everyone in the UFC right now.

    Skill for skill Jose Aldo has all the tools he needs to dominate Max Holloway. But of course we know that this doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll win… MMA is a complex sport, full of deep psychology and Aldo has been fighting for a long time. We don’t know if his heart is still in this game or if he’s going to turn into a wrestler and retire after the fight [thanks Rumble!].

    What we do know, without any shadow of a doubt is that he is more skilled than Holloway everywhere. There are no exceptions. He has significantly better striking, grappling and defence. It’s possible that Holloway’s youth, toughness and cardio could see him win this fight, but based on all the information we have right now I believe that Jose Aldo is a great bet at the current odds.

    Good luck!

    Reasons for placing this bet...

    • Jose Aldo is significantly better than Max Holloway in every single aspect of MMA.
    • Jose Aldo has home advantage. This means that Max Holloway will probably have to either dominate the fight or finish Aldo in order to win in Brazil. Neither of those things will be easy to do.
    • Jose Aldo is lightning fast. He is significantly faster than Max Holloway.
    • Jose Aldo has some of the greatest striking defence in the history of the sport. Max Holloway will have to put himself in extreme danger to land anything significant.
    • Max Holloway takes a long time to find his range. It is often deep into the second round before Max finds his groove and gets comfortable. It is extremely difficult to find your range against Aldo because he’s so fast and his technique is so tight. He also doesn’t lead with anything. He counters everything that his opponent throws at him. This makes him extremely difficult to read because he doesn’t give off any tells offensively. For this reason Max Holloway is going to find it very difficult to find his range in this fight.
    • Max Holloway stands heavy on his lead leg and has a thin frame with a skinny torso and thin legs. This makes him very vulnerable to Aldo’s devastating body and leg kicks.
    • Jose Aldo has world class MMA wrestling and super high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu that he can use to switch things up if Max starts to gain success in the striking exchanges.
    • Jose Aldo is extremely tough and he has a great chin.
    • Max Holloway’s hand speed and kicks are slow in comparison to Aldo’s.
    • Jose Aldo is a master of controlling the distance. There are very few fighters in MMA who can control the distance as well as Aldo does.

    Risk Factors...

    • Max Holloway is young, hungry, tough and aggressive.
    • Max Holloway has excellent cardio and fights at a high pace.
    • Max Holloway is very consistent and well rounded.
    • Max Holloway has a lot of confidence and momentum going into this fight.
    • Max Holloway has the cardio and toughness required to really crank things up in the 4th and 5th rounds when Aldo might start to get tired.

    Our Betting Tip

    Jose Aldo to win

    Stake

    3 Units

    [3% of your bankroll]

    Odds

    Decimal = 1.71
    Moneyline = -141
    Fractional = 71/100

    58%

    Implied Probability

    The bookies believe that Jose Aldo has a 58% chance of beating Max Holloway based on their current odds.

    70%

    Our Probability

    We believe that Jose Aldo has a 70% chance of beating Max Holloway based on our extensive research and analysis.

    About Allsopp

    Allsopp
    I am the owner of this website and my goal is to build a strong community that is focused on helping each other make money betting on MMA.

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