Steven Peterson’s loss to Alex Caceres put a small dent in last week’s profits, but July is still shaping up to be an excellent month for prefight betting. We’re still up around 3 units on prefight bets this month, and UFC 240 looks like it could be a really good event for betting. I’ve already got my eye on 3 or 4 potentially rock-solid bets this weekend.
It has been a frustrating few weeks in Live Betting with harsh split decision losses on Thiago Santos, Wellington Turman and Francisco Trinaldo making it difficult for us to bank any significant profits. What’s even more frustrating is that we bet on those 3 guys at underdog odds. I calculated that those 3 losing bets were close to a 20 unit swing based on the odds we got them at. If just one or two of those bets had won over the last 3 weeks, our results would be looking very different.
The good news is that we have absolutely crushed it in Live Betting this year, so I guess we were bound to pay some taxes eventually. We’re still in profit for Live Betting in July, but we should have made a hell of a lot more than we have. With our win rate being so strong in Live Betting I am sure that it won’t take us long to bank another big profit. We have come so close over the last few weeks to earning big money, but the judges can’t keep screwing us for much longer.
|Frankie Edgar vs Max Holloway||1 unit on Frankie Edgar to win at odds of 4.30 | +333 | 33/10||Edgar to win|
|Cris Cyborg vs Felicia Spencer||10 units on Cris Cyborg to win at odds of 1.20 | -500 | 1/5||Cyborg to win|
|Geoff Neal vs Niko Price||No bet||Neal to win|
|Arman Tsarukyan vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier||No bet||Tsarukyan to win|
|Krzysztof Jotko vs Marc Andre Barriault||No bet||Jotko to win|
|Alexis Davis vs Viviane Araujo||No bet||Araujo to win|
|Hakeem Dawodu vs Yoshinori Horie||No bet||Dawodu to win|
|Gavin Tucker vs Seung Woo Choi||No bet||Choi to win|
|Alexandre Pantoja vs Deiveson Figueiredo||No bet||Pantoja to win|
|Gillian Robertson vs Sarah Frota||No bet||Frota to win|
|Erik Koch vs Kyle Stewart||No bet||Koch to win|
Frankie Edgar vs Max Holloway Betting Tip and Prediction
Making money betting on MMA is all about trying to make the best decision possible with all the information we have available to us. Sometimes you will win, and sometimes you will lose, but over time if you consistently put your money in strong positions, you should earn a lot more than you lose.
MMA is a unique sport because the odds are often influenced by how people feel about a fighter. Feelings are rarely based on facts, and for this reason, we often encounter fights where there is a lot more value than there should be. In that sense, betting on MMA is more similar to betting on WWE than Boxing.
Max Holloway is one of the best fighters in the world. He’s incredible, but I have a feeling that his popularity amongst MMA fans is having a massive impact on the betting odds for this fight. There’s just no way that Edgar should be this big of an underdog because Holloway hasn’t fought a strong offensive wrestler since he lost to Dennis Bermudez back in 2013
Sure, Holloway has fought a few grapplers since then like Brian Ortega and Ricardo Lamas, but remember that the devil is in the detail and neither of these guys have the kind of offensive wrestling required to take opponents down and hold them down. They’re not Frankie Edgar.
It’s also worth noting that Charles Oliveira and Andre Fili are now very strong offensive wrestlers, but back when Holloway fought them, they weren’t.
The point I am trying to make is…
Max Holloway is an incredible fighter. If this fight stays standing, he’ll dominate Frankie Edgar. But right now Edgar is a 4.30 | +330 | 33/10 underdog for an Implied Probability of just 23%, because people are making the assumption that Holloway has good enough takedown defense to shut down one of the best MMA grapplers in the history of MMA. The truth is, we’ve seen nothing from Holloway’s past fights to suggest he can keep this fight standing.
On the flip side, we’ve also seen nothing from Holloway in the last 6 years to suggest that he’ll have any trouble keeping the fight standing. He may easily stuff every takedown and turn Frankie into a panic wrestler within a couple of minutes, but again, the point I am trying to make is that we don’t know either way.
The betting sites setting the opening odds are making a big assumption that Holloway can keep this fight standing and that assumption is not based on facts.
Remember that making money betting on MMA is a game of trying to make the best decision possible based on all the information we have available to us. Right now we don’t know whether Holloway will be able to keep this fight standing or not. There’s no way to be sure because we haven’t seen his takedown defense tested by a strong offensive wrestler in the last 6 years.
What we do know is that the last time he fought a strong offensive wrestler in Dennis Bermudez, he struggled BAD. Holloway committed the cardinal sin of allowing Bermudez to flatten his shoulders out on the canvass after being taken down. From there we saw that Holloway was EXTREMELY weak off his back. He struggled badly to work his way back to his feet.
Now I am sure that Holloway has improved a hell of a lot since he fought Bermudez back in 2013, but is it enough to shut down one of the strongest offensive wrestlers of all time? Remember that he trains at a small gym in Hawaii and he hasn’t got any real-world, competitive experience competing against strong offensive wrestlers in the UFC. It’s also worth noting that none of the guys he trains with are strong offensive wrestlers, and none of them have particularly good takedown defense. Perhaps Holloway is the outlier amongst them, but perhaps he’s not.
From a betting perspective, this fight is straightforward to work out. If it stays standing, we know that Holloway will dominate. If it goes to the ground, we can be pretty sure Edgar will dominate. We just don’t know whether or not Edgar will be able to get this fight to the ground.
This is one of those bets where I have no idea who will win. I lean Holloway, but I’m also open minded enough to realise that giving Edgar an implied probability of just 23% when we haven’t seen Holloway’s takedown defense tested in 6 years is just madness.
With bets like this, it is important to understand that you only need to win 1 in 3 to make a profit. The risk to reward ratio here based on all the information we have available to us is excellent.
A lot of people hate to lose and a lot of people do not understand the concept of making money long term from gambling based on consistently putting your money in strong positions that have an excellent risk to reward ratio. In terms of risk to reward ratio bets, this is one of my favorite bets of the year.
Recommending that you bet on Frankie Edgar to beat Max Holloway is either going to result in me looking like a genius or an idiot, there won’t be much middle ground. Either Holloway keeps the fight standing and dominates, or we see Edgar wet blanket Holloway for 25 minutes.
I believe it’s more likely that Holloway wins this fight, but that doesn’t change the fact that Edgar is an excellent bet at the current odds. If you struggle to understand this concept, I recommend that you pass on this bet because it will probably lose. If you struggle with this concept right now, but you want to learn more, I recommend spending some time learning how probabilities work and how putting your money in situations with a good risk to reward ratio can pay off big over time. Ray Dalio, one of the most successful investors of all time has a great chapter on this concept in his book. And it is also the foundation for the principles outlined by Jason Calacanis in his book.
Remember that making money from betting on MMA is not about picking winners or being the smartest guy in the bar. At times, like this, it is not even about betting on the guy who is most likely to win. It is about consistently putting your money in strong positions over a long period of time and making more money than you lose over the long term. If you ever see an opportunity to bet against a heavy favorite when there are big unanswered questions over their skillset you should take it, especially when they’re fighting an opponent that is well equipped to exploit that potential weakness. If you keep putting your money in these kinds of positions, you will make money long term.
Edgar might get dominated on Saturday night. But based on past performances there’s a reasonably good chance he might also be the one doing the dominating. Good luck if you decide to tail, but please remember that it is more likely that this bet loses.
We also have to take into consideration the fact that Holloway’s weight cut to 145 pounds is getting harder and harder as he gets older. This could have a sudden impact on his cardio, athleticism and durability.
Reasons for betting on Frankie Edgar
Risk Factors with betting on Frankie Edgar
My Betting Tip
Frankie Edgar to win
[1% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 4.30
Moneyline = +330
Fractional = 33/10
The bookies believe that Frankie Edgar has a 23% chance of beating Max Holloway based on their current odds.
Cris Cyborg vs Felicia Spencer Betting Tip and Prediction
It’s not very often that I recommend a big bet on a big favorite, but it’s also not very often we see mismatches as big as this in the UFC.
I don’t feel great about betting on Cyborg as a massive favorite, but if we don’t, I feel we’re like leaving money on the table. Even at Cyborg’s current odds of around 1.20 | -500 | 1/5 I think there’s a significant amount of value and the crazy thing is that her odds are continuing to improve. I’d even recommend that you wait until closer to the time of the fights before betting on her because who knows how good the odds will get.
The current implied probability of Cyborg’s odds is 83%. There is a stigma attached to betting big favorites, but the fact is that I feel we have at least a 7% margin over the bookies on Cyborg because I personally cap her at around 90%. It doesn’t matter if you’re getting a 7% margin on a giant underdog, a moderate favorite or a heavy favorite. Value is value, and I firmly believe that Cyborg has better than an 83% chance of winning this fight.
I barely give Spencer any chance of surviving a round in there against Cyborg if this fight stays standing because Spencer has no power in her strikes, no technique and no striking defense. She is a sitting duck, and Cyborg should be able to KO her fast.
In the clinch, she can survive, but Cyborg’s physicality and base in Muay Thai will be too much for her to handle. She’s unlikely to have much success with takedowns in the clinch, and while she’s working for takedowns and cage control from this position, Cyborg will be chipping away at her with hard knees and elbows.
Spencer is primarily a BJJ practitioner, but on the ground, Cyborg also has a huge advantage. Spencer frequently gives up position chasing long shot submissions, and she’s very weak off her back. Cyborg is a strong wrestler and a high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Black Belt. Cyborg should be able to dominate if this fight goes to the ground.
Spencer will not feel comfortable standing with Cyborg so she will look to try and get this fight to the ground ASAP by spamming takedowns. It’s unlikely she’ll be able to get this fight to the ground because she has weak offensive wrestling and Cyborg’s takedown defense is great, but if she does get it to the ground Cyborg shouldn’t be in too much trouble.
Another key reason why Cyborg is a great bet here is that Spencer tends to slow down significantly as the fight progresses. She becomes extremely sloppy after round 1 because she lacks the correct technique to fight efficiently. This results in her using power and explosion to try and drag her opponents to the ground as opposed to the correct offensive wrestling technique, which inevitably leads to her becoming flat-footed and ineffective.
There have only been 2 UFC fights this year where I have given a fighter virtually no chance of winning. The first was Jessica Eye against Valentina Shevchenko. The second was Jack Marshman against Edmen Shahbazyan. The third is Felicia Spencer against Cyborg. Cyborg has the skills to dominate this fight wherever it takes place and the heart, toughness, cardio, and chin to see the job through for as long as Spencer hangs in there. This bet should be an easy winner.
I have been looking for someone to put into a parlay accumulator with Cyborg all week but there’s no one else I feel confident enough in. I know the odds are steep but I can’t turn down the opportunity to get a potentially very easy 20% return on my money.
Reasons for betting on Cris Cyborg
Risk Factors with betting on Cris Cyborg
My Betting Tip
Cris Cyborg to win
[10% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.20
Moneyline = -500
Fractional = 1/5
The bookies believe that Cris Cyborg has an 83% chance of beating Felicia Spencer based on their current odds.