UFC 242 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

August turned out to be a great month for us as we banked 8 units of profit in pre-fight betting and around 5 units of profit in Live Betting. This was one of those rare months where we performed better in pre-fight betting than we did in Live Betting.

If you are one of my Elite Members, you’ll know that we are currently in a period of terrible luck. The good news is that even with every close decision going against us, we are still managing to grind out small profits. This is an incredibly strong sign because when the luck does start to change, we will once again begin to bank Monster monthly profits. We can’t continue to be on the wrong side of so many close decisions, especially when we’ve almost always got our money on the fighter who should be winning the fight if the judges did their jobs correctly.

We now look ahead to September, which could be a tricky month for pre-fight betting and a potentially great month for Live Betting. I’ve scanned through all the fights taking place on the events this month, and at first glance, it looks like many of these upcoming UFC cards are packed full of debutants and low-level fighters. These kinds of cards are always tricky for Pre-fight betting because low-level fighters tend to be more inconsistent. This means we need to be smart, stay disciplined, and not feel pressured into putting our money into weak positions just because we feel the need to place some bets. We’ve done fantastic so far this year, and these upcoming UFC events that are stacked full of low-level talent are where people tend to implode and place bad bets. We need to keep it tight, bet smart, and continue only to put our money in strong positions.

Events full of debutants and low-level fighters tend to be bad for pre-fight betting, but they can potentially be a goldmine for Live Betting because betting sites are unfamiliar with the fighters competing on these kinds of cards and the casual betting public don’t take the time to learn about the fighters. This means that we have a huge edge Live Betting on fights that feature fighters who are either making their debuts or are new to the UFC.

As I look ahead to the next 4 weeks of fights, I am taking a cautious, Sniper approach to pre-fight betting and an extremely optimistic approach to Live Betting. Hopefully, this will enable us to end September with another profit. We are now 7-1 on profitable months in 2019. The only month where we made a loss was June.

Thank you for all your support so far this year, it means more to me than you could ever know. I promise you that I am working extremely hard behind the scenes to give us the best chance of ending 2019 with a big profit!

Fight Betting Tip Pick
Dustin Poirier vs Khabib Nurmagomedov No bet Nurmagomedov to win
Edson Barboza vs Paul Felder No bet Barboza to win
Davi Ramos vs Islam Makhachev No bet Makhachev to win
Curtis Blaydes vs Shamil Abdurkahimov No bet Blaydes to win
Diego Ferreira vs Mairbek Taisumov No bet Taisumov to win
Andrea Lee vs Joanne Calderwood No bet Lee to win
Lerone Murphy vs Zubaira Tukhugov No bet Tukhugov to win
Liana Jojua vs Sarah Moras No bet Moras to win
Ottman Azaitar vs Teemu Packalen No bet Packalen to win
Belal Muhammad vs Takashi Sato No bet Sato to win
Muslim Salikhov vs Nordine Taleb 2 units on Nordine Taleb to win at odds of 1.83 | -120 | 83/100 Taleb to win
Omari Akhmedov vs Zak Cummings No bet Cummings to win
Don Madge vs Fares Ziam No bet Madge to win

Muslim Salikhov vs Nordine Taleb Betting Tip and Prediction

The odds looked like they were going to start improving on Nordine Taleb this week, so I held off betting him to see what would happen. But as UFC 242 gets closer, we can’t wait any longer to lock in a bet on him because the Ceremonial Weigh-Ins take place in just 5 hours. I feel we need to lock in our bet now because I think we might start to see money come in on Taleb when people see the size advantage he’ll have over Salikhov at the Ceremonial weigh-ins. This brings me onto the first reason why I feel Taleb’s a decent bet at odds of around 1.83 | -120 | 83/100.

Size matters in MMA, it’s why we have weight classes, and Nordine Taleb should have a big size advantage over Salikhov. Taleb will have a 5-inch reach advantage and stand 6 ft 3 inches tall compared to Salikhov who is just 5 ft 11. Being bigger than your opponent is almost always a big advantage in MMA, but it’s an even bigger advantage when you can use your size as effectively as Taleb does.

Nordine Taleb does a really good job of using his size to fight long. It’s tough to land power shots on him because his distance control is outstanding. His striking defense is excellent, and he does a great job of using his length to stay just outside of his opponent’s range. These technical advantages are amplified when he has a big size advantage over his opponent because they need to cover so much more distance to get inside his height and reach advantage.

This is a good stylistic matchup for Nordine Taleb because Muslim Salikhov comes from a Kung Fu / Wushu Sanda background. This means that the majority of his offense comes in the form of spinning attacks. These kinds of attacks look great in movies, but they are highly ineffective in MMA, especially when you’re fighting someone like Taleb with excellent distance control.

Spinning attacks are mostly ineffective because they add another layer to your attack. For example… It takes much less time and set up to kick someone rather than to spin around and then kick them. This small window where you are spinning often gives your opponent enough of a read when you start to turn your hips and enough time to either slip the strike or block it. Nordine Taleb is exceptionally good at distance control and evading strikes, and I feel like Salikhov is going to have a really tough time landing his spinning attacks for this reason. The size and reach disadvantage will also make it a lot harder for him to get into a range where he can land the spinning attacks.

Another weakness in the Kung Fu / Wushu Sanda fighting system is that most of the attacks are kicks based. Very few punches are thrown. This means that Salikhov’s Boxing isn’t great and he doesn’t throw a very high volume of strikes per round. Nordine Taleb should have a big advantage when it comes to Boxing.

Nordine Taleb will also have a big advantage when it comes to grappling, although it’s unlikely that this will be a factor because he rarely tries to take his opponents down and Salikhov’s takedown defense is pretty good.

The current average odds on Taleb are currently around 1.83 | -120 | 83/100, which give him an Implied Probability of about 55%. All things considered, there is definite value there. He should be favored more than this.

I will warn you, though…

It is unlikely that Nordine Taleb will go out there are completely dominate. This will most likely be a tough fight, a close fight and a cagey back and forth tactical fight, but at roughly even money, Nordine Taleb has more than enough advantages for us to back him here. At an Implied Probability of 55%, there’s good value on Taleb.

Reasons for betting on Nordine Taleb

  • Nordine Taleb will have a big size advantage over Muslim Salikhov. He stands 6 ft 3 inches compared to Salikhov who is just 5 ft 11. Taleb will also have a 5 inch reach advantage.
  • Nordine Taleb does a great job of using his size to fight long.
  • Nordine Taleb has excellent distance control and striking defense. He uses range very effectively.
  • Muslim Salikhov only throws a low volume of strikes per round.
  • Muslim Salikhov’s offense all centers around his spinning attacks. Most of his spinning attacks are telegraphed when he starts to turn his hips. Nordine Taleb should be able to read these attacks and use his reach and distance control to slip them.
  • Muslim Salikhov is quite a low level Boxer. He’s not great with his hands. Most of his attacks are kicks based.
  • Nordine Taleb should have a big advantage when it comes to Boxing.
  • Nordine Taleb has a big advantage over Muslim Salikhov when it comes to grappling.
  • Muslim Salikhov is quite passive. He doesn’t do much. He also doesn’t go up a gear when he’s behind in a fight.
  • Nordine Taleb throws a higher volume of strikes than Salikhov per round.

Risk Factors with betting on Nordine Taleb

  • Muslim Salikhov is very tough.
  • Muslim Salikhov hits hard.
  • This is likely to be a close fight since both guys tend to prefer to counter strike and react to what their opponent is doing.
  • Nordine Taleb sometimes fails to put his stamp on rounds.

My Betting Tip

Nordine Taleb to win

Recommended Stake

2 Units

[2% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.83
Moneyline = -120
Fractional = 83/100

55%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Nordine Taleb has a 55% chance of beating Muslim Salikhov based on their current odds.

60%

Our Probability

I believe that Nordine Taleb has a 60% chance of beating Muslim Salikhov based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

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