UFC 243 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

I always like to give you a forecast at the beginning of each new month in these betting tip articles so that you know what to expect in the upcoming weeks.

You might remember at the beginning of last month I said that September would be a particularly difficult month for prefight betting because every card was stacked full of debutants, inconsistent fighters, and low-level athletes.

I usually like being right about stuff, because when I am right about something, it means we make money. Unfortunately, last month was not the case. I was dead right about September being a terrible month for betting, and it delivered in a big way!

September turned out to be only our 2nd losing month on prefight bets of the year. We are now 7-2 on months with our only two losing months being July and September. It’s not often you’ll hear me say this after making a loss, but I think we did great last month. It was just one of those months where I feel like no matter what I would have done I would have made a loss. If things had played out slightly differently, it could have been a hell of a lot worse.

Throughout September we dodged so many bullets. I came super close to betting Mairbek Taisumov, Andrea Lee, Zak Cummings, Cole Smith, Jack Hermansson, Khalil Rountree and Michał Oleksiejczuk and all those guys ended up losing. September could have been a bloodbath, but in the end, we stayed disciplined, worked our asses off, and only ended up taking a small loss of around 3.78 units.

In a month like September, where my two most confident bets in Marvin Vettori and Jeremy Stephens were voided under weird circumstances, I take a small victory in only making a loss of around 3.78 units. This might sound strange, but I am kind of proud that I only took a small loss after everything that happened. It actually feels like we made a profit. September could quite easily have been a -10 unit month, but our discipline and sniper approach significantly reduced our losses.

We now look ahead to October in what I hope will be a month where we can get back on track and put money in the bank. 2019 has been a great year for us so far, and I am hoping that we can end the year with a big winning run.

I have taken a look at all the fights coming up in October, and it looks to be a hell of a lot better than September. Hopefully, we can kick things off with a profit at UFC 243.

I’m also glad to report that Live Betting went pretty good last weekend. Nothing major happened, but we did pick up two wins to go 2-0 on Saturday night. We ended September with a decent overall profit of around 5 units.

Fight Betting Tip Pick
Israel Adesanya vs Robert Whittaker 3 units on Israel Adesanya to win at odds of 1.91 | -110 | 91/100 Adesanya to win
Al Iaquinta vs Dan Hooker No bet Hooker to win
Tai Tuivasa vs Sergey Spivak No bet Spivak to win
Dhiego Lima vs Luke Jumeau No bet Lima to win
Jake Matthews vs Rostem Akman No bet Akman to win
Justin Tafa vs Yorgan De Castro No bet Tafa to win
Callan Potter vs Maki Pitolo No bet Pitolo to win
Megan Anderson vs Zarah Fairn Dos Santos No bet Anderson to win
Brad Riddell vs Jamie Mullarkey No bet Mullarkey to win
Ji Yeon Kim vs Nadia Kassem No bet Kim to win
Bruno Silva vs Khalid Taha No bet Silva to win

Israel Adesanya vs Robert Whittaker Betting Tip and Prediction

My process for researching a fight card is always the same. I scan through all the fights and prioritize researching the ones where I believe the best opportunities may be. This enables me to lock in bets before the odds decline too much.

Before I begin researching a fight, I usually have an idea of how a fight will play out based on my hazy memories. These memories are almost always wrong, which is why research is so important. When you’re watching a fight live, you don’t take in what is ACTUALLY happening. You really can learn a lot from watching fights months later in the cold light of day.

Often when I begin to research a fight, I’ll completely change my mind on how I think it will play out. I often feel less confident, or research will confirm how I initially felt. Rarely do I feel more confident after research that my initial lean will win, but that’s what happened after I researched Israel Adesanya vs. Robert Whittaker.

Israel Adesanya as an underdog to Robert Whittaker immediately jumped out at me as a potential bet because on the most basic of levels Adesanya is incredible and has a lot of X-Factors in his favor. For example:

Adesanya is making big improvements from fight to fight, he’s huge, and he also will have learned a lot from going 5 hard rounds with Kelvin Gastelum. On top of that he’s fighting a guy in Robert Whittaker who is returning to action after a long 18 month layoff. Whittaker has also been battling health issues and injuries during that time. We also can’t ignore the fact that he suffered life-changing damage in his last fight against Yoel Romero. Some fighters are never the same again after enduring that kind of damage.

We also can’t ignore the fact that Adesanya fights predominantly Southpaw, which is always a difficult challenge for an Orthodox stance fighter like Whittaker to deal with.

Adesanya will also have a massive 7-inch reach advantage over Whittaker.

All these X-Factors make Adesanya an enticing bet, but I didn’t expect to love a bet on him as much as I did when I started watching footage of both guys.

If you go back and watch the Adesanya vs. Gastelum fight in the cold light of day you’ll see that Adesanya’s striking defense is Elite. For the vast majority of that fight, Gastelum couldn’t get near him. Adesanya is so elusive and extremely hard to hit.

Whittaker’s style of striking should be a lot easier to deal with than Gastelum’s. Afterall, Gastelum is an aggressive Southpaw with cardio for days, a granite chin, fast hands, excellent Boxing, and the ability to pressure his opponents, get inside and land fight-ending strikes.

Whittaker’s style of Boxing is so much more basic than Gastelum’s. He is significantly slower and can’t pressure his opponents without taking a lot of damage. He also throws the same lead jab to right hook combo over and over. He’s very predictable. He also fights out of the Orthodox stance and doesn’t mix things up. He should be an easy puzzle to solve for an Elite striker like Adesanya.

If this fight stays standing, I do see Adesanya outclassing Whittaker. Maybe Whittaker lands a flash KO, but we saw in the Gastelum fight that Adesanya has a decent chin and he’s very tough. We’ve seen Whittaker rocked, dropped, wobbled or knocked out multiple times throughout his career, so it’s much more likely Whittaker is the guy eating the kill shot.

In my opinion, there is not much point in talking about this fight from a grappling perspective. Neither guy has the offensive wrestling to take the other down and control them on the ground. This is almost certainly going to be a stand-up fight.

In terms of cardio, both guys can fight at a high pace for 25 minutes, although it is worth noting that Adesanya gets better as the fight progresses as he starts to find his range, while Whittaker gets more predictable and easier to hit.

At roughly even odds I think Adesanya is a great bet here. Obviously, Whittaker is very dangerous and has the power and skills to knock out anyone in the division, but ultimately that’s why they call it gambling. Adesanya’s size advantage, skill advantage, and all the issues that Whittaker has dealt with outside of the cage are enough for me to back Adesanya here at the current odds.

The odds on Adesanya are currently very generous and give us a lot of value. I recommend that you lock in this bet ASAP because there’s a good chance that the odds will decline significantly in the run-up to the fight.

Reasons for betting on Israel Adesanya

  • Israel Adesanya will have a massive 7 inch reach advantage over Robert Whittaker. Fighters win around 65% of the time when they have a 7 inch reach advantage in a fight. This automatically means there’s value on Adesanya at the current odds.
  • Adesanya showed in his last fight against Kelvin Gastelum that he has an excellent chin and he’s extremely tough.
  • Israel Adesanya is a significantly better striker than Robert Whittaker.
  • Israel Adesanya is a switch stance fighter who spends a lot of time fighting Southpaw.
  • Robert Whittaker is much slower than Adesanya.
  • Israel Adesanya has some of the best striking defense in the UFC. He’s very difficult to hit.
  • Israel Adesanya has great cardio. He also gets better as the fight progresses.
  • Robert Whittaker has a very predictable style of Boxing.
  • Robert Whittaker throws the same jab to right hook combo over and over.
  • Robert Whittaker is unable to pressure his opponents without taking a lot of damage.
  • Robert Whittaker suffered a life changing amount of damage in his last fight against Yoel Romero. Some fighters never look the same again after taking that kind of damage.
  • Robert Whittaker is coming into this fight on the back of an 18 month layoff.
  • Robert Whittaker has been battling a lot of health issues and injuries.

Risk Factors with betting on Israel Adesanya

  • Robert Whittaker is extremely tough.
  • Robert Whittaker can fight at a high pace for 25 minutes.
  • Robert Whittaker hits extremely hard. He possesses legit 1 shot KO power in every strike.

My Betting Tip

Israel Adesanya to win

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.91
Moneyline = -110
Fractional = 91/100

52%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Israel Adesanya has a 52% chance of beating Robert Whittaker based on their current odds.

70%

Our Probability

I believe that Israel Adesanya has a 70% chance of beating Robert Whittaker based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

11 Comments

  1. I wonder how you forgot to mention the following:
    – Whittaker is a Australian Wrestling Champion and Adesanya has them chicken legs.
    – Adesanya had 5 fights in 12 Months wich leaves little time to improve on skills between fights.
    – Whittaker seems to be in the shape of his life according to the Grange.TV podcast

    I’m not so shure about this one Allsop.. but I could be wrong

    1. Don’t want to chat war with anyone but I don’t correlate 5 fights in 12 months to not being able to improve your skill set. I think it may be quite the opposite actually, more fights equal more experience in the cage, not to mention having to game plan for 5 different fighters would mean he would have to broaden his skill sets in preparation for each fight. As far as a fighter saying they are in the best shape of their life… talk is cheap, everyone is going to stay that. Whether it’s true or not is another story. I’m still waiting for the interview where a fighter says, “I’m in decent shape kinda.”

    2. We have never really seen Robert use his wrestling and even if he does Adesanaya has shown he has very good get ups.

      The more you fight the more likely that your going to be improving your skills if anything Rob wouldn’t have any time to improve his skills because of his injuries and surgery his main focus would be getting back to full fitness.

      Of course Rob is going to say he is in the best of the shape in his life I would be shocked if he didn’t lol, but Adesanya will be in fine shape too considering how active he has been, but for Rob these surgeries and injuries take a big toll on your body too.

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