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Dang it. I’m actually considering a bet on Volk. Holloway won’t have the power to put Volk away in the early rounds, coupled with a bad weight cut (tbd) could be disastrous for Max. Give me Volk via TKO if good enough odds.

sounds like solid reasoning, let’s punch the bookies in the dick again this week so we can all be “BLESSED”

So in Monday without any research or tape watching, my mind thought volk would be a solid test for Max, possible real problem, Tuesday evening and i feel the same as Allsopp and am eating my monday wild statements, planning on a tasty Holloway Christmas bet ???Let it rain, Thank the heavens research is done and when someone of the caliber of Allsopp agrees and backs up thoughts, makes you feel million times safer, ?

Max is the better fighter for sure but to be honest im betting volkanovski here for the same reason i had with the aldo fight. Even though aldo was more technical as a striker, more range of strikes, high level bjj black belt and one of the highest takedown defenses in the history of the ufc. Im the biggest aldo fan and to be fair I think Volkanovski simply just beat aldo with brute strength, people say aldo looked off or… not himself but i personally just think aldo couldn’t physically get volkanovski off him because he’s so powerful. Max has reach/height advantage, good footwork, high fight IQ and output so maybe he can pick apart volkanovski from range but i think max hasnt fought a guy this powerful a grappler could get wet blanketed to a decision or late stoppage.

Can you believe volkanovski weighed over 90kgs when he was playing rugby?

Volk beat Aldo with feints, he never sat down on a punch the whole fight, not much chain wrestling, mainly taps to the leg and odd strike with lots of feints. Aldo lost looking for the perfect counter that never came and he beat himself tbh. Power ain’t likely to be a thing, I really don’t think Volk is gonna be a sitting duck or what Chris said striking but Max’s frame is a thing in the 145 division, hard to bet against Max without seeing round 1 cos of that frame.. I rate Volk’s striking defense more than others but he has been dropped

I understand your feeling, alot out there have a similar feeling, i cant put a finger on why volk worries me but he does, watched fights and clearly holloway better from every aspect, same as aldo was over volk but volk got the win in brazil, he controlled the aldo fight very well, have to trust my research but i wouldnt be surprised for reasons am not sure haha

I am interested in hearing the logic in potentially taking Usman over Covington. I faded Covington against Lawler earlier this year while in Vegas and had regrets as soon as I left the window. Then I proceeded to watch Colby literally beat up the ghost of Robbie Lawler. At current odds I’m considering taking Colby – not simply based on the statements above. But I am very interested in hearing the research for the Usman/Covington bout. Thanks Chris –

Me too. I can’t see how Colby doesn’t win. I think Colby can get taken down but I don’t think he can get held down. Don’t know. May be wrong but I think it should be a fairly boring fight if Usman tries to wrestle but he’s said in the past Colby is better. I read somewhere he said that. So if that’s true does he stand the whole fight? If he does and Colby uses better defense than he did against Lawler then there’s a low chance of Usman landing a big shot and KOing him. Lawler couldn’t so why would Usman be able to do it.

I agree. I almost see this fight as a pick ‘em, 50/50. At current odds of +150, Colby is only getting an implied probability of 40%. I’m just really interested in seeing your research, Chris. And where you cap Colby. His wrestling is obviously top notch but he also showed me a lot staying on the feet & out boxing Robbie Lawler. Just feels like the value currently lies with Colby so I really want to hear your take. I don’t want to fall prey to the recency bias of the Lawler bout.

I rewatched the RDA fight. Colby got in a bad spot in one round. Got taken down I think and still didn’t really have good striking defense. That’s what had me worried the whole Lawler fight that in his volume of punches that Lawler would land a clean one and finish the fight.

But I watched his breakdown of Usman Covington and I think he says Usman is better in every aspect of MMA. I don’t really see that. I think the boxing and wrestling are at least neck and neck between the 2. But I honestly haven’t watched as many fights as Allsop so I may be wrong.

His video of it is on YouTube. Check it out. See what you think.

Thanks Jburgan just saw the breakdown posted and I’ll give it a watch. I was the same, waiting for Lawler to land a clean shot against Colby the entire bout. When I rewatch that fight it seems to me that either A) Lawler didn’t seem to have much motivation, a point furthered by his lackadaisical post-fight speech or B) He went in prepared but quickly found he was outmatched by Colby and phoned it in. I just can’t shake that there’s value on Colby given only a 35-40% probability by the books. I’m not gonna lay the house on it either way. Only 1 unit on Colby at the moment.

Yeah I have one unit on Covington at +155 for now.

Teymur seems like a good bet to me. He´s wild and overextends frequently which might get him taken down but even so; his takedown recovery and scrmbling ability aren´t bad at all. Cardio is alright. Probably wins by ko. Hooper is still an awful striker.

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