UFC 246 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

UFC 246 sees the return of Conor McGregor, the biggest name in MMA. Conor’s name value will bring an increase in liquidity to this event that we rarely see in our sport. This enables us to jump into this card a little earlier than usual and lock in our bets before the odds move too much. After a bad December, UFC 246 looks like a great event for betting, and I’m hoping that we can put our recent losses behind us and kick off 2020 with a win.

With 3 events still to come before the end of the year, I don’t want to write December off yet, but this month is currently our worst losing month in over 1.5 years. We’re currently down 6.5 units in December.

Before the end of the year, we still have 1 Bellator event on December 29th and then both a Rizin and PFL card on New Year’s Eve. These smaller promotions tend to pack their end of year shows with a really good lineup of fights. It’s Rizin’s landmark 20th event and PFLs big end of year tournament. The Bellator card on the 29th is packed full of your typical Bellator squash matches, but Rizin and PFL have some great fights lined up, which will hopefully give us some good opportunities to win bets and put a dent in our losses for December.

During times like this, it is important to get some perspective and consider the bigger picture. I know that we have been making losses over the last few months, but since August, we’re only down 12.99 units. Our questionable Split decision losses on Klidson Abreu and Aleksandar Rakic account for a 6 unit swing. Had the judges scored these fights correctly, we’d only be down 7 units since August.

It’s also important to remember that a 12.99 unit loss over a 4 month period is basically nothing in the big picture. It’s not even a scratch. This is nowhere, even near a bad run. It can get much, much, much, much worse than this. Gambling is unfortunately brutal, with a lot of upswings and downswings. It’s a Rollercoaster, and just when you think it can’t get any worse, it usually does.

Longterm we are gold, we’ve proven that over the last 6 years, but it’s not easy. There are going to be a lot of rough patches along the way, and the last 4 months is nowhere near as bad as it can get. Just know that this is not my first rodeo. I’ve been through countless downswings over the last 10 years, and I always bounce back. Remember that Spring always follows Winter, you have to hang in there.

I also don’t want the last few months to take away from what has been an excellent 2019 for us. We still have 3 MMA events left to go this year, but so far, we have banked around 24 units of profit in 2019. Our average annual profit is around 32 units, so we’re slightly below that average, but it’s certainly not a disaster either. I’m really proud of what I have achieved this year, and whether you agree with my bets or not, I know that I couldn’t have done anything else. I worked my ass off and will continue to work my ass off to ensure we have another profitable year in 2020.

Over the next few weeks, I will be updating the results page. With the sheer number of MMA events we’ve had in the 2nd half of 2019, this is one of the many admin tasks that I just haven’t had a chance to keep on top of. The betting schedule is another area that I just haven’t had time to keep up to date. I have now found someone to keep these pages up to date, so from January 2020, you’ll be able to follow the betting schedule and our results from month to month.

At the end of every year, I like to do a yearly analysis of my results to look back at my performance over the previous 12 months to try and spot any areas that I can improve. For the first time ever, I plan to Livestream this process on Twitch. Watch out for that coming soon; I’ll also upload it to Youtube when I’m done. I already believe I’ve identified one area I can improve. I want to say a big thank you to members JustJ and Vittaya, for bringing it to my attention. I’ll be talking about that more in the Livestream.

I also have some big plans for 2020. In January, I will be launching the Live Betting waiting list that many of you have been waiting for, for a long time. I will also be launching a brand new members area in 2020, where I’ll be posting exclusive monthly member-only videos where I produce videos on the deeper side of gambling. Some of these topics include psychology, probability, bankroll management, how to deal with losing, how to assess risk and much, much, much more. I think many of you will find these videos extremely useful, especially if you have found our recent results tough to deal with.

It’s a real shame that after such a solid profit in 2019, I have to end the year by apologizing for our recent run of form, but I promise you guys that I’ll continue to work hard to give us the best chance possible of crushing it in 2020.

All forms of gambling are unfortunately brutal, and it will push you to your limits mentally. After 17 years of riding this crazy Rollercoaster, all I can say is that the pain of losing does get a hell of a lot easier to the point where it barely even bothers you at all. The irony is that you have to get very comfortable with losing before you can start winning. This is going to be one of the first topics that I cover in the new monthly member videos coming in January.

If you’re still here, thank you so much for your support this year. It really means more to me than you could ever know, and it’s the single biggest thing that drives me. When I know I have caused people to lose money, it hurts me a lot, but at the same time, when I know I have helped people make money, it’s the greatest feeling in the world.

We will continue to level up and continue to do better and better. The landscape for prefight betting UFC has been incredibly tough over the last few years with the introduction of USADA in 2016. Then the changes to MMA scoring criteria in 2017, despite this, over the last 6 years, we continue to be profitable. That’s not an easy thing to achieve and is perhaps an indicator that when the sport does start to stabilize in 1-2 years’ time, it’s likely that we are going to crush it.

With another profitable year in the bank and a UFC Live Betting app scheduled to launch in the first quarter of 2020, the future has never been brighter for us. We even saw super-low latency on the UFC Fight Pass stream this weekend for the first time. I can’t wait to get back on the horse and kick off our brand new betting campaign in 2020.

I’m looking forward to digging into all these great upcoming fights with you guys in the chat room and on live streams. I hope that you and your family have an incredible Christmas and New Year’s. Take care, I love every single one of you, and I’m going to work really hard to make 2020 our best year ever!!!

The column that you can usually find in the table below titled 'The bet with the best risk to reward ratio' has now been replaced by something better. Checkout the Livestream archive pages to find a new 'Betting Advice' summary for every fight.

MMA Betting Tips

Fight Betting Tip
Conor McGregor vs Donald Cerrone No bet
Anthony Pettis vs Diego Ferreira No bet
Holly Holm vs Raquel Pennington No bet
Drew Dober vs Nasrat Haqparast 3 units on Nasrat Haqparast to win at odds of 1.43 | -233 | 43/100
Maycee Barber vs Roxanne Modafferi No bet
Alexey Oleinik vs Maurice Greene No bet
Andre Fili vs Sodiq Yusuff No bet
Askar Askarov vs Tim Elliott No bet
JJ Aldrich vs Sabina Mazo No bet
Brian Kelleher vs Ode Osbourne No bet
Aleksa Camur vs Justin Ledet No bet

Drew Dober vs Nasrat Haqparast Betting Tip and Prediction

When we talk about the reasons why a fighter is a great bet, we usually focus on the things that they can do to their opponents offensively. This bet is very different because instead, we will focus on what a fighter does defensively.

George St-Pierre is one of the greatest fighters of all time, and like me, he sees something in Nasrat Haqparast. I’ve been watching MMA for a very long time, and from memory, I can only ever remember GSP cornering Francis Carmont and Rory MacDonald. The fact that GSP takes time out of his life to fly around the world cornering a guy like Haqparast should be a clear and obvious signal as to just how damn good he is…

 

Last year we bet big on Nasrat Haqparast to beat Joaquim Silva, and he came through for us in a big way. Silva didn’t land a single head strike in the entire fight, and even more impressively, Haqparast told his corner and the cameraman at the end of round 1 that he was going to finish Silva in round 2. This is quite incredible considering the fact that Haqparast didn’t do much damage in round 1, and Joaquim Silva is no joke. A clear sign that Haqparast is at an extremely high level.

It was a similar story in his fight before that against Thibault Gouti. The striking stats on this matchup are extremely misleading. It says that Gouti landed 56 head strikes, but this is completely wrong. The vast majority of Gouti’s strikes landed on Haqparast’s high Boxing guard and were blocked, despite this the UFC stats website seems to have counted them as strikes landed. Haqparast also did a great job of making Gouti miss. Gouti only landed 27% of the strikes he attempted.

He did even better against Marc Diakiese, again using his excellent footwork and striking defense to cause Diakiese to miss. Diakiese was only able to land 22% of the strikes he threw.

Stats never tell the whole story, but Haqparast has some of the best striking defense in the UFC’s Lightweight division. It’s extremely difficult to land clean hard shots on him because his footwork and tight Boxing guard make it difficult to sneak anything through. He sees everything coming.

Haqparast’s world-class striking defense tends to frustrate his opponents and opens them up for his pinpoint accurate counters. Haqparast is incredibly fast, and he does a great job of catching his opponents with wicked combinations when they over-commit to their power strikes.

Drew Dober is a dangerous opponent because he’s a Southpaw who has developed legit KO power over the last few years, but he is also a guy who loads up on his power strikes. Speed kills, and there’s a big difference in speed here. Haqparast should do well against a guy like Dober because he’ll wait for Dober to load up on his power hooks, slip them or block them with his high Boxing guard and then fire back with his fast counter combinations.

Haqparast has a big technical advantage over Dober when it comes to striking, but that’s not where his advantages end. Haqparast also has a big advantage on the ground. Dober has been in the UFC for 6 years, but his takedown defense and ground game are still his biggest weaknesses. Haqparast doesn’t use his grappling that often, but it’s there when he needs it, and he’s a strong wrestler with a high-level ground game. He managed to go the distance with Marcin Held in his UFC debut when he was only 22 years old, which is a testament to just how good on the ground Haqparast really is.

Haqparast trains at Tristar, and just like his mentor, GSP, Tristar fighters have been using takedowns to steal rounds or put their stamp on rounds for over a decade. If Haqparast were to get into trouble at any point in this fight standing, he should be able to get himself out of trouble by changing levels and getting this fight to the ground.

Dober’s cardio is pretty good, but he does tend to fight at a high pace, and we have seen him slow down on a couple of occasions. In contrast, Haqparast’s cardio and pacing have looked excellent.

I feel like I’ve been saying this a lot lately with guys like Max Holloway, Doo Ho Choi, and Aleksandar Rakic, but Haqparast has an advantage over Dober in almost every single aspect of MMA. Dober being a Southpaw may make it a little more difficult for Haqparast to land his counter combinations, but Haqparast is a Southpaw too, so it swings both ways and should make it more difficult for Dober to land his power strikes. With neither guy having the Southpaw advantage in this matchup, you have to favor the more technical striker with significantly better defense. It’s also worth noting that the Southpaw vs. Southpaw dynamic doesn’t change the fact that Haqparast is a significantly better grappler.

Haqparast should win this fight easily if both guys show up and perform like they usually do. I think Haqparast is destined to be a UFC Champion one day. He’s scary good for just 24 years old.

Reasons for betting on Nasrat Haqparast

  • Nasrat Haqparast is better than Drew Dober in almost every single aspect of MMA.
  • Nasrat Haqparast is only 24 years old. He trains under Firas Zahabi at Tristar. He is George St-Pierre’s new protege. He is making MASSIVE improvements from fight to fight. Everytime we see him compete he looks like a different person. It’s like he’s a Robot who’s downloading new skill packs off the internet.
  • Drew Dober has poor takedown defense and a low level ground game.
  • Nasrat Haqparast is a strong wrestler, with a high level ground game.
  • Nasrat Haqparast is incredibly tough.
  • Nasrat Haqparast has incredible cardio. He can fight at a high pace for 3 rounds.
  • Nasrat Haqparast has some of the best striking defense in the UFC’s Lightweight division.
  • Nasrat Haqparast is much faster than Drew Dober.
  • Nasrat Haqparast does a great job of making his opponents miss and then punishing them with devastating combinations.
  • Nasrat Haqparast has great footwork, it’s very difficult to cut the cage off and catch him with anything clean.
  • Nasrat Haqparast has excellent fight IQ. He understands the importance of winning rounds and putting his stamp on rounds.
  • Drew Dober tends to load up on his shots and wing hooks. It’ll be difficult to land these strikes on Haqparast because he never stands right in front of you in a range where this kind of strike can land.
  • Drew Dober is there to be hit. He loves a scrap. He tends to take a lot of damage in his fights.

Risk Factors with betting on Nasrat Haqparast

  • Like many Tristar fighters, Haqparast is a slow starter that sometimes doesn’t put his stamp on rounds until late in a round. This can lead to rounds being closer than they need to be.
  • The Southpaw vs Southpaw dynamic may lead to Haqparast’s striking not looking as fluid as usual. This does however swing both ways and it will also effect everything that Dober does well with striking.
  • Dober hits hard. In recent years he has developed legit KO power.
  • Drew Dober trains at Team Elevation with some of the best fighters in the world.
  • Nasrat Haqparast is still very young and inexperienced. Fighters like this are more likely to slip on a Banana skin and lose when they make a critical mistake. Having said that, Haqparast has shown outstanding fight IQ up until this point in his career.

My Betting Tip

Nasrat Haqparast to win

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.43
Moneyline = -233
Fractional = 43/100

70%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Nasrat Haqparast has a 70% chance of beating Drew Dober based on their current odds.

75%

Our Probability

I believe that Nasrat Haqparast has a 75% chance of beating Drew Dober based on my extensive research and analysis.

I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

5 Comments

    1. Thank you for the kind words mate.

      Nothing you can do about losses in this game, but I’ve been through much worse runs than this and always come out the other end in profit. It’s not my first rodeo.

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