UFC 247 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

At the beginning of every year, I always go back over the previous 12 months to see if there are any areas that I can tighten up and improve.

The best part about doing this kind of analysis when you’re on a losing streak is that you are much more open-minded towards doing things differently. This kind of analysis doesn’t seem as valuable when you’re winning because everything is great.

Personally, I don’t care about losing bets. They are just apart of the game. They are unavoidable. I’ve been gambling for so long that I just don’t feel anything anymore, but the negativity that I receive online does bother me. I’m getting used to it slowly, but it’s not easy to wake up after having a losing weekend and face a ton of abuse.

People were particularly harsh this past weekend, so I went into my analysis session for this year’s results, feeling pretty down. This soon changed when I began to take a look at our performance in 2019. Looking back, I think we did great. We banked a solid profit across that 12 month period. Sure the end to the year was disappointing, but it’s hard for me to put into words how much bad luck we’ve had over the last few months.

I don’t want it to sound like I am making excuses, but when you spend as much time studying these fights as I do, you start to develop a very deep understanding of all the possible ways that a fight can play out. This means that when a fighter you bet loses, you’ve already seen them lose that way in your head. This means that it’s no surprise when it actually happens.

This kind of thinking also enables you to quantify how lucky or unlucky you were that this particular scenario played out. This ability to visualize the different ways that a fight could play out is one of the reasons why I’ve had so much success Live Betting over the years. I can often see how a fight is going to play out before it actually does play out, based on small clues we get early on into the matchup.

It’s very important to remember that every bet that you’ll ever place will have risk factors. Recently I’ve found that we’ve been placing solid bets with minimal risk, only to see those minimal risk factors end up being the deciding factor in the fight. It’s frustrating, but it’s also improbable that it keeps happening.

A really good example of this from this past weekend was the Brett Johns and RDA fights. There were so many risk factors with betting Brett Johns compared to betting RDA, and yet Brett won, and RDA lost.

After analyzing my results for 2019, I feel super positive about 2020 because I feel like we had a disproportionately high amount of bad luck. Not just towards the end of the year, but also dotted throughout our strong run from January 2019 to September 2019.

The only area where I feel I need to tighten up is when betting on older fighters. We didn’t actually make a loss last year betting on old fighters, but I think that these kinds of bets may become a problem moving forward.

When looking back at my results, I found that I lost a lot of bets last year on older guys. The reason we never made a loss on older fighters overall was because of a few select winners who really came through for us. Like when we bet on a 45-year-old Cheick Kongo to beat Vitaly Minakov at huge underdog odds, when we bet Diego Sanchez at dog odds to beat Mickey Gall, when we bet Glover Teixeira as an underdog to beat Nikita Krylov and Ion Cutelaba or when we bet on Demian Maia to beat Ben Askren and Anthony Rocco Martin.

These bets were huge winners for us and contributed to our overall profit in 2019, but I am worried that they may become problematic in the future because pretty much all those fights were hyper-competitive and could have gone the other way.

I’ve found that when we bet on older fighters, they either get dominated, or they win by a close margin. They never go out and totally dominate their opponent. This means that even though we made money on these kinds of bets last year, if things would have played out slightly differently, we could have lost overall on them.

There is, of course, evidence in FightNomics that supports the theory of old fighters being a bad bet. Generally speaking, the bigger the age gap between fighters, the less likely it is that the older fighter will win.

This discovery doesn’t mean that I am going to stop betting on older fighters, I think any fighter is worth a bet at the right odds. I will, however, be much more cautious when pulling the trigger on older fighters and make sure that we’re getting a really good risk to reward ratio in the odds.

When you’ve just lost some bets, your first instinct is to “try and get it back”. This is a dangerous mindset because that impulsive behavior can lead you to make bad betting decisions.

I know that many of you might be itching to get back on the horse and are feeling frustrated with my recent performance, but it’s very important that you understand that this is a long term game. There are brutal swings with all types of gambling. The reason why most people don’t make money gambling is because they behave impulsively and they can’t deal with the swings.

Over the last 10 years, I’ve had several big swings in Prefight betting, so this is not my first rodeo. I always bounce back, and long term, I will continue to be profitable. In order to be profitable long term, you must remain disciplined, and you must remain consistent when you know that your strategy works.

I will always be straight and honest with you. So please understand that UFC 247 is one of the worst PPV cards I’ve ever seen and also one of the worst events for prefight and Live Betting that I’ve ever seen. Take a look and see for yourself:

When I begin to research an event, I usually have 4 or 5 names jump out at me as potential bets. I then whittle that number down to 1 or 2 bets after research.

This is the first UFC event that I can remember in a long time where not a single name is jumping out at me right now. This is a bad sign. Maybe we’ll find some decent bets after doing research, but it’s not looking good.

This fight card also looks terrible for Live Betting because there are only 10 fights on this card instead of the usual 12. On top of that, we also have 5 of those 10 fights featuring heavy favorites.

We can only work with the fights that we are given, and the fights the UFC are serving up for UFC 247 look about as bad as you can get for betting.

My main objective for 2020 is to grind out a bigger profit this year than we did last year, and the only way we’re going to achieve that is by only putting our money in strong positions. If I can’t find strong positions, I pass and wait for better opportunities to come along.

I just wanted to let you know what the landscape is like for UFC 247 just in case we have to pass on this event completely. I know it’s disappointing, but making money from gambling is really hard, and it’s important to keep things tight and to stay disciplined.

Fight Betting Tip
Dominick Reyes vs Jon Jones No bet
Katlyn Chookagian vs Valentina Shevchenko No bet
Juan Adams vs Justin Tafa No bet
Dan Ige vs Mirsad Bektic No bet
Derrick Lewis vs Ilir Latifi No bet
Antonio Arroyo vs Trevin Giles No bet
Derrick Lewis vs Ilir Latifi and Andrea Lee vs Lauren Murphy 1 unit, 2 leg parlay accumulator on Lewis and Lee to win at odds of 2.04 | +104 | 26/25
Alex Morono vs Kalinn Williams 4 units on Alex Morono to beat Kalinn Williams at odds of 1.38 | -263 | 19/50
Mario Bautista vs Miles Johns No bet
Austin Lingo vs Youssef vs Zalal No bet
Domingo Pilarte vs Journey Newson No bet
Andre Ewell vs Jonathan Martinez No bet

Alex Morono vs Kalinn Williams Betting Tip and Prediction

I have been vocal in the Chat Room and in my Livestreams this week about how bad UFC 247 looked for betting.

When I started to research the fight between Alex Morono and Kalinn Williams, I didn’t expect to find a bet. To my surprise, this turned out to be a really good stylistic matchup for Morono, and I think there’s a good amount of value here, even if he is currently a big favorite.

Like with any bet, it’s important to emphasize that there are risk factors here. I recommend going and watching some of Morono’s past fights and then watching my Livestream on this matchup to decide if you want to tail this bet:

When it comes to Alex Morono, I can only see two potential risk factors, and if I am completely honest, I think there’s a good chance I’m overly cautious with both of them.

The first and most obvious risk factor is that Kalinn Williams is a big, strong, athletic guy. In round 1 he commits hard to his punches. It’s possible he could land a bomb on Morono and knock him out. I don’t personally consider this as too much of a risk factor because Williams has sloppy technique, and Morono has a great chin. He’s only been knocked out 2 times in his 22 fight career, and he’s only been KO’d once in his 9 fights in the UFC at the hands of Niko Price.

It would be particularly unlucky if we bet Morono and he was to get knocked out because in the last 2 years Williams has gone the distance with several extremely low-level fighters who have losing records.

The 2nd and more significant risk factor is that Morono has really bad takedown defense, and he’s weak off his back. Morono has only defended 31% of takedowns in his 9 fights in the UFC, and you can pretty much guarantee that if you shoot a takedown, you will probably get him to the ground.

One of the reasons why Morono is so easy to takedown is because he’s a Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and falls in love with hunting for longshot submissions. He is more focused on submitting his opponent as opposed to working his way back to his feet or keeping the fight standing in the 1st place.

Kalinn Williams is a low-level grappler and a low-level wrestler, but he does frequently try to take his opponents down. Based on past performances, he doesn’t appear to have a heavy top game or a high-level ground game, but I can’t rule out the possibility of him winning this fight via lay and pray if Morono chooses to stay on his back.

After watching the Jordan Mein fight it’s tough to feel totally confident in Morono against anyone who will try to take him down, but he has since moved to Fortis MMA and in his last fight against Max Griffin looked to quickly pop back up to his feet every time he got taken down.

Morono will likely have a giant advantage on the ground, and it would be an epic flake job on his part if he chose to allow Williams to control him from top position. Unfortunately fighters often implode, but it would be exceptionally disappointing if Morono were to demonstrate fight IQ that was that bad.

Now that we’ve talked about the risk factors, let’s talk about the reasons why Morono is a solid bet.

To put it bluntly, Morono is significantly better than Williams everywhere. He’s lightyears ahead of him standing up and on the ground. Morono can only lose this fight if he gets flash KO’d, disqualified, injured, or demonstrates terrible fight IQ.

If the fight stays standing, I expect Morono to pick him apart with his superior striking. Williams is quite slow past the 1st round and stands very flat-footed and rigid. He’s also very easy to hit. There’s a good chance that Morono wins this fight by knockout.

On the ground, Morono should also have a huge advantage. Everything that Williams does is with athleticism and explosiveness as opposed to the correct technique. Morono is a BJJ Black Belt with tricky submissions, sweeps, and reversals. He should be able to cause Williams big problems on the ground as long as he doesn’t except being on the bottom for too long chasing long shot submissions.

I also really like Morono in this fight because he has great cardio. He can fight at a high pace for 15 minutes. He’s always working. Williams tends to slow down after the 1st round, and he becomes sloppier. His hand speed is much slower, and he’s much easier to hit. I like how Morono is constantly working; Williams will struggle to keep up with the pace he sets.

There are also a few X-Factors in Morono’s favor. The first is that he’s from Houston. UFC 247 takes place in Houston, which means he’ll have home advantage for this fight. Texan judges are historically very biased, which will make it difficult for Williams to win a decision in a close fight.

The hometown crowd could also have an impact on the referees. If Williams does take Morono down, the crowd might get restless and put pressure on the referee to stand them up.

Morono also started to train at Fortis MMA after the Jordan Mein loss, which is slowly becoming one of the better MMA gyms out there. This has shown in Morono’s recent performances. He appears to be getting significantly better from fight to fight.

Another major X-Factor is that Kalinn Williams is stepping up to take this fight on just over 1 week’s notice. His cardio didn’t look great in his past fights, so it will probably look even worse since he is taking this fight on such short notice.

Like with any bet, there are risk factors, but it really would be an epic flake job by Morono if he were to lose to Williams. It’s not often that I see a ton of value in such a big favorite, but Morono should be much closer to a 1.20 | -500 | 1/5 here.

Reasons for betting on Alex Morono

  • Alex Morono is significantly better than Kalinn Williams in every single aspect of MMA.
  • Alex Morono is very tough. He has a great chin. He’s only been KO’d twice in his 22 pro MMA fights. He’s only been KO’d one time in his 9 fights in the UFC at the hands of Niko Price.
  • Alex Morono is a BJJ Black Belt. He has tricky reversals, submissions and sweeps.
  • Alex Morono has great cardio. He never stops working. He can fight at a high pace for 3 rounds.
  • Alex Morono has decent footwork. Kalinn Williams is much slower and flat footed.
  • Alex Morono throws a wide range of strikes.
  • Kalinn Williams has very bad striking defense. He doesn’t move his head. He’s very flat footed and easy to hit. There’s a good chance that Morono will knock him out.
  • Williams appears to have a very low level ground game.
  • Williams appears to have a weak top game.
  • Williams tends to slow down as the fight goes on. By the midway point of the 2nd round his hand speed becomes much slower.
  • Alex Morono is from Houston which means he’ll have home advantage on his side for this fight. Historically the judges in Texas are very biased.
  • Williams is taking this fight on just over 1 week’s notice.

Risk Factors with betting on Alex Morono

  • Alex Morono has very bad takedown defense. He has only defended 31% of takedowns in his 9 UFC fights.
  • Alex Morono is very weak off his back. He spends too long chasing long shot submissions off his back.
  • Williams is big, strong and aggressive. He commits hard to his punches. He could knock Morono out.
  • Anything can happen in MMA.

My Betting Tip

Alex Morono to win

Recommended Stake

4 Units

[4% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.38
Moneyline = -263
Fractional = 19/50

72%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Alex Morono has a 72% chance of beating Kalinn Williams based on their current odds.

80%

Our Probability

I believe that Alex Morono has an 80% chance of beating Kalinn Williams based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

15 Comments

  1. this card does suck. Persoanlly im going to place a few small bets on Adams vs Tafa to finish inside the distance, Shevchenko i’ll parlay with Lewis vs Latifi inside the distance and may add Newsom to add some juice to it. I wouldn’t bet real money on newsom but I don’t think Pilarte is a fighter. When he gets tagged he looks scared shitless where as Newsom is giving up some size but I think hes a bulldog and had a very good showing against Ricardo Ramos who has some similarities to Pilarte’s body type but I think Ramos is a lot more talented than Newsom. So that’s it for me. Just some just for fun wagers that hopefully will make me a few bucks. If not oh well

  2. Like casual mma fans, there are also casual gamblers. who aren’t as mentally invested as us in the world of betting mma and so take loses like newbies. Dont get too disheartened by these people.

    Pressure can crush you or make diamonds.

    1. I would say that all those guys would be risky bets as singles. It doesn’t make too much sense to parlay them together because if one loses, you lose the whole bet. If you really want to bet those guys, I’d recommend betting them as single instead. This means that if you went 1-1 on Ige and Johns, you’d be at roughly break even, instead of a loss. Hope this helps mate. 👍🏻

  3. You’ve been saying “X has an advantage in every single aspect of MMA” a lot recently. Hopefully it actually works out this time. Do you not fancy Reyes at those odds for a small 1u bet? Personally believe there’s value there even though Jones has a huge physical advantage.

    1. I know mate, it’s been a long time since I can remember losing this many bets in such a short space of time on guys with such superior technique. It was be absolutely savage bad luck if Morono were somehow to find a way to lose this as well. Gambling is unfortunately brutal and it wouldn’t surprise me.

      I just finished Live streaming my research for the fight between Reyes and Jones. I don’t think Reyes is worth a bet personally mate. I recommend giving it a watch to see what you think. It’s currently uploading to the livestream archive. It’ll be ready soon. 👍🏻

  4. Seems like Allsopp Always gets stuck with such shittier lines out in the UK compared to us in the US. I live in Jersey and I got Morono for -233 then again at -250 after I read his column. I typically get 30 to 50 pts better lines or more on all his posted bets on most of my betting apps

    1. I have definitely noticed the lines moving after Chris releases a pick to members. I’m often at work when picks are released and can’t bet them right away. Even when I get a moment to step away and place a mobile bet 20-30 minutes later it seems odds have already shifted greatly. That’s on me and not much I can do to combat it. I totally get why Chris waited to release the pick on Masvidal vs Diaz now until just before the fight. For example – Morono is now -280 and -285 on bovada and mybookie, the 2 sites I use. I was really hoping this would be a good card for betting as I will be on Vegas this weekend and wanted to lay some $ in person. Ain’t that how it always works out!

  5. Hello everyone, I’ve been watching on YouTube and really enjoy the content. I just thought I’d put my two cents in, I think Lewis is a pretty safe be especially with the big size difference, and I know this is going to make me look stupid but at these odds I’m going to put a little on Reyes, his last four fights were great wins and even tho there is no doubt Jones is much better, I this Reyes has a better shot then the odds are saying, I think Jones has a tougher time aginst guys built longer and taller like Reyes and the kid has confidence!
    Good luck everyone!
    Unfortunately I have to find some picks because I’m in Vegas this week to cash a very nice Superbowl ticket 🙂

  6. Hi guys, I bet for fun but with some research but after binge watching Allsopp’s UFC 247 breakdowns I’d never dare to call my work as research! Shoutout to Allsopp for changing my perspective on research and betting – Definitely going to be more selective in my picks from now on!

    * Have a 5 fight parlay on Jones, Shevchenko, Andrea Lee, Ige, and Morono. Huge risk/return of course
    * Morono inside the distance at +160

    Even though Allsopp isn’t sold on Juan Adam’s gameplan/ headspace, he sounded grounded, mature and realistic in his pre fight interviews. I think he will do just fine unless he rushes and starts exchanging bombs with Tafa. Greg Hardy was an emotional fight for him and after losing two in a row and partnering with Jackson-Wink, I think it’s pretty safe bet. Did you guys feel the same?

    I also think Black Beast is a safe bet too – Latifi’s can land a bomb but his path to victory is pretty much taking Lewis down. I feel in the first round when they both are fresh, Latifi won’t be able to take him down and blow up is gas tank. Might just run out faster as Latifi is coming in around 250 lbs and carrying more weight than usual. Lewis is fast for his size and known to carry power late in the third round as he’s shown in the past and can easily
    KO a tired Latifi.

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