UFC 249 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

If you are out there on the front lines working in Hospitals, Supermarkets, working in the Supply Chain, or in Law Enforcement. Maybe you’re working as a Delivery Driver or supporting people in your local community. I just want you to know that you’re an absolute beast, and I love you. You’re the real heroes right now. I can’t imagine what you are going through everyday, but I want you to know that Millions of people around the world appreciate what you are doing so much that it is impossible to put it into words.

Also, if you are worrying about your job or your business, maybe you’ve already lost your job or your business, please try not to worry. Remember that tough times don’t last, but tough people do. We will get through this and always remember that Spring follows Winter. You can survive this and bounce back stronger than ever before.

If you have some free time, I strongly recommend checking out a book called the 10x rule by Grant Cardone.

Cardone wrote it after going through the 2008 recession. The audiobook is even better.

While it doesn’t come up with any new groundbreaking concepts that can’t be found in other books, Cardone does do a great job of summarizing a good range of behaviors and techniques that can help you get things back on track and crush it when you fall on hard times.

I’ve read this book recently, and it helped me recalibrate my thinking after some aspects of my mentality have gone off track since I started to put out Youtube videos for the first time last year. You should check it out:

These are uncertain times, but there are signs that the UFC is close to returning back to a normal schedule. In a recent interview with Brett Okamoto, Dana White said that he plans to put on fights every week over the next couple of months:

It is, however, important to remember that even if the UFC goes back to holding weekly events, these are not normal times, and we have to adjust our betting style accordingly…

I lost tens of thousands of dollars in the months after USADA came into effect back in 2016, and I fear the same thing could easily happen again if we are not careful.

When USADA was first introduced, we saw a high percentage of fighters decline out of nowhere because they could no longer use Performance Enhancing Drugs or Supplements to fuel their training camps. We also saw fighters struggle badly without being able to use Diuretics to cut weight or IVs to rehydrate. It took at least a year for the UFC to stabilize after all the changes that USADA introduced.

Fighters are going to face significant disruptions to their training camp and weight cutting routine due to the Corona Virus, so it’s possible that we could see a similar level of chaos to what we saw just after USADA was introduced. I expect to see a lot of fighters underperform over the next few months.

I got caught out big time back in 2016 by underestimating the impact that USADA would have on the UFC, but I won’t make the same mistake again.

2016 gave us some good insight into what kinds of fighters will thrive during a time when training camps face major disruptions. If we think back to who did great back then, we look to fighters such as Eddie Alvarez and Michael Bisping, who both won World titles against all the odds. Generally speaking, the fighters who do best under chaotic circumstances are tough fighters who have genetic, endless cardio for days. We’ve never seen Alvarez nor Bisping get tired, and therefore, when USADA struck, their performances were not affected at all. If anything, they looked better than ever before.

If we think about who might be the beneficiaries of such chaotic circumstances this time around at UFC 249, you’d have to look at guys like Tony Ferguson, Vicente Luque, Jessica Andrade, and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Each of these fighters seems to have a never-ending gas tank, solid chins, and extreme toughness. These are the exact characteristics that saw fighters achieve a tremendous amount of success in the months following the introduction of USADA.

I am not sure what the fight research is going to show us yet, but I will, in particular, be looking to bet fighters who may thrive in this new chaotic environment.

From a practical point of view, the uncertainty of these current times also requires us to do things a bit differently on the website.

Over the last few weeks, I’ve sent you several emails explaining how things may change around here, and it’s likely that things are going to continue to change now that the UFC is putting on events again.

Here are some possible changes that you can expect to see over the next few weeks…

The Lab and “Member Only” Videos

You may have read in one of the emails that I sent out a few weeks back that during this time without any MMA, I have been adding new features to the website to give you even more value for money. I’ve also begun to plan out some “Member Only” videos that focus on different aspects of gambling, such as Bankroll Management and Betting Strategies.

When I release this new content, I want it to be great, so I am putting a lot of work into it to make sure that it is as good as it possibly can be. It’s not quite ready yet, but I hope that it will be soon. How soon it will be done will depend on how much downtime we get over the next few weeks and months without any MMA events.

“The Lab” is a new area of the website that is very close to being finished. It should be launching sometime before UFC 249. I’ve been working on it for a while now, and I think you’re going to like it!

More Live Betting spaces are opening up!

UFC 249 is going to be the only major sporting event that will be broadcast live at the moment, so I expect there to be a dramatic increase in the number of people watching this event and betting these fights. This will bring a flood of new liquidity to Live Betting on UFC 249.

To celebrate this unique time in MMA history, I am going to be allowing more people to join us for Live Betting on this event and all of the upcoming UFC events until the liquidity starts to return to normal.

I’ll also be introducing a “Pay Per Event” system so you will be able to pick which events you join us for.

I recommend joining our Live Betting Waiting List to be the first to know when this new system goes Live.

There will still be a cap on the number of people who will be able to Live bet with us. Existing Elite Members will have priority on joining us for what I hope will be an excellent night of Live Betting.

Pay Per Event for my Live Betting Tips

Dana White seems pretty confident that UFC 249 will take place, but I won’t feel totally confident it happens until the fighters are in the Octagon on April 18th.

During these times of uncertainty, I think we need to take things week by week because every upcoming UFC event can potentially be canceled.

This is the reason why I froze all Elite Membership subscription payments back in March because the truth is we don’t know when the UFC schedule will go back to normal.

As a result, I am going to keep all Elite Memberships frozen for the time being and switch to a “Pay Per Event” model until things go back to normal.

This means that for the next few events, you will need to buy access to my Live Betting Tips on an event by event basis.

Then as soon as the UFC shows strong signs of going back to normal, I will reactivate the Elite Membership subscriptions.

If you are a current Elite Member you will be guaranteed a spot in Live Betting, but you will need to buy your access in the run up to the event.

I’ll let you know as soon as my Live Betting Tips for UFC 249 go on sale. I am going to wait for stronger confirmation that the event is going to happen before setting things up.

Fight Betting Tip Who I think will win Who I think is the better bet
Justin Gaethje vs Tony Ferguson No bet Ferguson Ferguson
Dominick Cruz vs Henry Cejudo 1 unit on Dominick Cruz to win at odds of 2.90 | +190 | 19/10 Cruz Cruz
Ryan Spann vs Sam Alvey No bet Spann Spann
Calvin Kattar vs Jeremy Stephens No bet Kattar Kattar
Francis Ngannou vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1 unit on Jairzinho Rozenstruik to win at odds of 3.35 | +235 | 47/20 Ngannou Rozenstruik
Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza vs Uriah Hall 1.5 units on Jacare to win at odds of 1.83 | -120 | 83/100 Jacare Jacare
Anthony Pettis vs Donald Cerrone No bet Cerrone Cerrone
Greg Hardy vs Yorgan De Castro No bet Hardy Hardy
Aleksei Oleinik vs Fabricio Werdum No bet Werdum Oleinik
Carla Esparza vs Michelle Waterson No bet Esparza Waterson
Niko Price vs Vicente Luque No bet Luque Luque
Bryce Mitchell vs Charles Rosa 1 unit on Charles Rosa to win at odds of 2.60 | +160 | 8/5 Rosa Rosa

Francis Ngannou vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik Betting Tip and Prediction

Almost every fighter in the UFC’s Heavyweight division has the power in their hands to KO any other Heavyweight dead if they land clean. This is why it always gets my Spidey Senses tingling when I see a big underdog in a Heavyweight fight.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik was the first name that jumped out at me as a potential bet this week, and after researching this matchup, I can see exactly why I felt that way.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Francis Ngannou are both incredibly dangerous, and that’s why I am struggling to understand why Ngannou is such a big favorite here. After watching all their recent fights, I don’t see any clear and obvious advantages here for Ngannou. Yes, he has fast hands and devastating KO power, but so does Rozenstruik. I recommend taking a look at the Livestream research session below for a more detailed breakdown of why I feel Rozenstruik is a decent bet here:

Francis Ngannou has terrifying knockout power, but he’s also still quite inexperienced. On paper, he has 17 professional fights, but many of them have ended within the 1st round. He hasn’t actually spent that much time competing against a decent level of opponent inside the Octagon. This isn’t a knock on Ngannou because he’s looked incredible against the guys he’s beaten, but it does make you wonder what might happen against an opponent like Rozenstruik who may not fear his power like other opponents have in the past.

If you go back and watch Ngannou’s KO wins, you’ll see that he often lands the kill shot because his opponents are so scared of his power that they over-commit and make a mistake. Ngannou’s fast for a big guy and ruthlessly accurate, but his performance against Stipe Miocic showed that he can also be quite sloppy, and his striking defense is poor when you force him to engage.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik will probably be the most technically skilled and experienced striker that Ngannou has ever faced, having racked up 85 Pro Kickboxing fights for an impressive 76-8-1 record.

There’s no doubt that Ngannou has scary KO power, but so does Rozenstruik. I’m curious to see if Ngannou will look as dangerous against a guy like Rozenstruik who has been competing against heavy hitters in the Heavyweight and Super Heavyweight divisions throughout his entire career.

It’s difficult to gauge who will have the advantage if the fight stays standing. Both are abnormally fast for Heavyweights, and they both have major power. Rozenstruik is much more technical than Ngannou, but it might not matter if Ngannou can land big shots when they exchange.

On the ground, Ngannou will most likely have a big advantage, but it would be dangerous for Ngannou to try and take this fight to the ground. Rozenstruik has really bad takedown defense and a white belt level ground game, but Ngannou doesn’t have grapplers cardio and bizarrely Rozenstruik does.

Rozenstruik appears to be one of these guys that never seems to get tired. Overeem pushed a decent pace in Rozenstruik in his last fight. Rozenstruik was forced to fight off his back, work his way back to his feet, stuff multiple takedowns, and battle for position in the clinch and yet he didn’t slow down at all and carried legit 1 shot KO power deep into the fight, finishing Overeem in the 5th round.

In contrast, Ngannou looked extremely gassed after just 4 minutes against Stipe Miocic, and we haven’t really seen him forced to work hard since then. If Rozenstruik can make Ngannou work hard early and survive round 1, his chances of winning this fight increase exponentially based on past performances.

Ngannou will be taking a big gamble if he chooses to use grappling in this fight because he may not have the gas tank to effectively grapple with Rozenstruik without slowing down significantly. We’ve also seen in Rozenstruik’s fights against Junior Albini and Allen Crowder that he has devastating ground and pound. If Ngannou gets swept and ends up on the bottom in a crazy scramble, Rozenstruik can legitimately knock guys out from top position.

Based on past performances, this is a very difficult fight to predict, which is why I really like Rozenstruik here as a decent sized underdog. His current odds of around 3.35 | +235 | 47/20 give him an Implied Probability of just 30%, which is kind of crazy when you consider how both these guys matchup.

This is a high-risk bet, and I don’t know who’s going to win, but at the current odds based on what I’ve seen, Rozenstruik is worth a gamble. If you struggle to deal with losing, you might want to sit this one out because it’s a high-risk bet, and there’s a good chance it’ll lose. I recommend doing your own research to decide for yourself if you want to back Rozenstruik. Based on what I’ve seen, there’s no doubt there’s value here.

Reasons for betting on Jairzinho Rozenstruik

  • Francis Ngannou now trains at Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas. Xtreme Couture is historically a bad gym. Fighters rarely improve when they move there and often decline.
  • Francis Ngannou has gassed out badly in the past and his training camp and weight cut are likely to be significantly impacted by the CoronaVirus.
  • Jairzinho Rozenstruik appears to have amazing cardio. He went 5 hard rounds with Overeem and didn’t slow down at all.
  • Jairzinho Rozenstruik recently started training at American Top Team, so he should be making significant improvements from fight to fight.
  • Jairzinho Rozenstruik carries legit 1 shot KO power in every strike.
  • Jairzinho Rozenstruik is more technical than Francis Ngannou. Ngannou’s kicks are awkward and he throws a lot of wild winging hooks. Rozenstruik is much tighter.
  • Many of Ngannou’s past opponents seem to have lost before they get in there with him. They look nervous, over commit and make mistakes. I’m not sure that an experienced Kickboxer like Rozenstruik will be intimidated by Ngannou.
  • Jairzinho Rozenstruik called out Ngannou after he beat Alistair Overeem. Perhaps he’s seen a weakness in Ngannou’s skillset that he believes he can exploit.
  • This fight should take place standing and in a stand up fight I think this matchup is close to 50/50.
  • I don’t think we’ve seen the best from Rozenstruik yet because everyone he fights tries to take him down. This might be the first time we see him open up because he should be able to fully focus on his striking without having to worry about being taken down.
  • Rozenstruik will carry legit KO power throughout this matchup whereas Ngannou should become significantly less dangerous after round 1.
  • Rozenstruik is a much more experienced striker than Francis Ngannou. He’s had 85 Pro Kickboxing Matches.

Risk Factors with betting on Jairzinho Rozenstruik

  • Francis Ngannou has legit 1 shot KO power in every strike.
  • Rozenstruik has terrible takedown defense and a super low level ground game.
  • At times Ngannou comes forward extremely aggressively. We haven’t seen Rozenstruik forced to fight on the backfoot, so we don’t know how he is going to deal with this.
  • Francis Ngannou will have a decent size advantage over Rozenstruik.
  • Rozenstruik’s training camp may have been badly disrupted by the Corona Virus.
  • Ngannou may have significantly improved his cardio since the Stipe Miocic fight.
  • Ngannou could come into this fight with a grappling heavy gameplan and cause Rozenstruik big problems.

My Betting Tip

Jairzinho Rozenstruik to win

Recommended Stake

1 Unit

[1% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 3.35
Moneyline = +235
Fractional = 47/20

30%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Jairzinho Rozenstruik has a 30% chance of beating Francis Ngannou based on their current odds.

40%

Our Probability

I believe that Jairzinho Rozenstruik has a 40% chance of beating Francis Ngannou based on my extensive research and analysis.

Dominick Cruz vs Henry Cejudo Betting Tip and Prediction

A few of you guys dropped by the Chat Room in the last couple of weeks to share that you had bet on Dominick Cruz and you wanted to get my thoughts on his chances of winning. I was quite quick to dismiss your bet and cited Cruz’s long layoff and Cejudo’s improvements as reasons why I thought Cejudo would be the better bet. I was so wrong. You guys were right. Cruz is a great bet.

Before researching this fight, I felt like Cejudo may have been one of the best bets on the card, but now I actually feel like Cruz should be the favorite if you take away his layoff and injuries.

We went really deep down the rabbit hole on this matchup, so I recommend checking out our Livestream for this fight to get a better understanding of why I feel Cruz is a great bet here at the current odds of around 2.90 | +190 | 19/10.

I believe that Dominick Cruz is an excellent bet in this fight because if he shows up and performs like he did in his recent fights against TJ Dillashaw and Urijah Faber, he is skilled enough to completely outclass Henry Cejudo. The problem is, Cruz, has been out for 3 years recovering from a broken arm and shoulder surgery, so there’s no way to know what version of him we’re going to get at UFC 249.

Like I always say, there are always going to be risk factors with every bet, and if you’re betting a guy as a big underdog like Cruz is, he’s not going to tick every box. All you can do is identify all the risk factors, put your money in a strong position, and hope for the best. Cruz is definitely a strong position to put your money at the current odds based on what I have seen. The risk to reward ratio is great.

One of the reasons why I am going to bet on Cruz is because we’ve already seen him bounce back from 2 long layoffs in the past. He came back off a 3 year layoff between 2011 and 2014 to run through Takeya Mizugaki after suffering severe knee injuries. He was then out for a further 2 years before returning against TJ Dillashaw.

Cruz is a true outlier because very few fighters would be able to return from layoffs such as this and look better than ever. Most fighters struggle bad with ring rust, but Cruz actually improved, and he did it twice!!! Cruz has spoken at length about how he feels ring rust is just a state of mind and how he used both layoffs to learn and improve. The proof is always in the pudding, and Cruz’s pudding tasted god damn delicious those nights where he outclassed Mizugaki and looked great against a TJ Dillashaw who was probably juiced to the gills on all kinds of PEDs.

I’m not saying that Cruz will look good after this latest layoff or that he’ll improve, but all we can do is make the best decision possible with the information we have available and based off the information we have available, Cruz is in a strong position to bounce back just fine.

Dominick Cruz has been competing at the highest level of the sport for the last 13 years. He’s regarded as an aging veteran, but at just 35 years old, he’s only 2 years older than Henry Cejudo, who is 33. I agree that Cruz has tons of MMA miles on the clock, and that his body is starting to fail him, but Cejudo’s not much younger and has probably had thousands of wrestling matches throughout his career. Who knows how many miles Cejudo has on the clock or how many chronic injuries he’s battling behind the scenes.

We have discussed at length this week in the Fight Research Livestreams how the Corona Virus is likely to have a big negative impact on many fighters since they won’t be able to train properly. For this reason, I feel it’s dangerous to bet on heavy favorites at the moment. We just do not know who is going to be affected by the Corona Virus. What we do know is that certain fighters are likely to be more affected than others. There are certain guys on this card like Tony Ferguson, Donald Cerrone, Calvin Kattar, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Vicente Luque, and Uriah Hall, who all seem to have a never-ending supply of genetic cardio and I’d definitely put Cruz into that box. Cruz’s cardio has looked absolutely fantastic throughout his career. Maybe Corona Virus wreaks havoc on Cejudo’s training camp, and he’s not able to perform to the best of his ability.

Size matters in MMA, it’s why we have weight classes, and Cruz has a big size advantage over Cejudo. Cejudo is one of the smallest fighters in the division at just 5 ft 4. Cruz should tower over him at 5 ft 8. Cruz should also have a reach advantage of anything up to 4 inches. It’s difficult to gauge what his exact reach advantage will be because different websites are listing different reach statistics for both guys.

Cruz’s actual physical reach advantage isn’t that important, though. What’s more important is that Cejudo fights in a low, compact striking stance, whereas Cruz fights very long. This will make it much more difficult for the shorter opponent in Cejudo to get inside on Cruz and land. Cruz’s fights against Faber and Dillashaw are a master class in striking defense, and there are long stretches of both those matchups where neither Faber nor Dillashaw could land a punch.

Cejudo’s striking is ok, but he is still a very inexperienced, basic striker. Take away his Wrestling, and he’d be a really average fighter. Cejudo’s striking purely exists to set up his Wrestling. If Cejudo can’t take guys down or they won’t stand and bang right in front of him, he tends to struggle.

Dominick Cruz has excellent takedown defense having defended 83% of all takedown attempts in his 14 fights in the UFC and WEC. This is incredibly impressive, considering the lighter weight classes were dominated by strong wrestlers for many years. Cruz himself has even spoken about this. Early in his career, he had to develop world-class takedown defense because the Bantamweight division was dominated by strong wrestlers.

Cruz’s takedown defense isn’t bulletproof, but he is almost impossible to hold down. If you get him on the ground, he’ll immediately pop back up to his feet like a spring. I know that Cejudo has a high-level background in Wrestling, but the size difference will make it really difficult for Cejudo to hold Cruz down. Cruz does an incredible job of creating scrambles and exploding off the bottom. I’d be amazed if Cejudo was able to hold him down and control him.

Cruz’s takedown defense is so good that I very much expect this fight to stay standing, and if it stays standing, this is Cruz’s world. Cruz will have a huge advantage, just as long as he hasn’t declined too much since we last saw him in the Garbrandt fight.

Earlier I said that Cejudo was a very basic striker, and if you want to see exactly what I mean, I highly recommend watching the Livestream research video on this fight. What I am going to try and subscribe to you is much easier to understand if you watch me describe it while you look at the video. But this is basically what I am seeing…

Cejudo has made huge improvements to his striking over the last couple of years, but in the words of Daniel Cormier:

“There are levels to this game”

Cruz has mastered his certain style of striking for MMA, while Cejudo is very early on his striking journey. Cejudo’s only really started to put it together in the last 2 years. Cejudo is still a Padawan, Cruz is the Jedi. There are subtle signs in the Moraes, and Demetrious Johnson fights that Cejudo is still very inexperienced when it comes to striking because when you come forward and attack him, he panics and flinches. He’s not great at reading what his opponent is going to throw at him. This is bad news in the UFC, but you can somewhat get away with it against traditional styles of fighting because these traditional styles tend to have similarities. Moraes, for example, has a high-level base in Muay Thai, but even though his timing, accuracy, and speed will be better, there’s not a massive difference between the way Marlon Moraes will throw a leg kick compared to someone like Brandon Davis. Moraes’ technique and timing will be much tighter, but the leg kicks are still thrown in the same way, from the same stance. This means that Cejudo can somewhat survive because he has his World Class wrestling to fall back on. Take that Wrestling away, and it’s likely to be struggle city against most guys at the top of the UFC’s Bantamweight division.

Cruz is potentially a nightmare opponent for Cejudo because his style is incredibly unorthodox. It’s a nightmare for an inexperienced striker who won’t be able to read Cruz’s complex patterns and angles. Cruz sets up an inside leg kick the same way he sets up a powerful overhand right. He’s so difficult to figure out, and you can watch all the tape in the world to try and get a read on him, but it’ll be very different when you’re stood in front of him. On top of that, Cruz builds a specific gameplan to exploit each opponent’s weaknesses, so we’re likely to see an even more complicated version of him at UFC 249. There are only a handful of guys in the world who can help you prepare for someone like Cruz, and Cejudo doesn’t train with any of them. In fact, one of them is TJ Dillashaw, his mortal nemesis.

If you go back and watch Cejudo’s fights against Marlon Moraes and Demetrious Johnson, you’ll also notice that he is particularly susceptible to leg kicks. Cruz disguises his leg kicks very nicely behind his complex footwork. Cejudo is going to have a tough time with them.

Cejudo really struggles to land on his opponents in Kickboxing range, so in order to land, he pushes forward aggressively in an effort to bait them into playing Rockem Sockem Robots. If you don’t play that game and instead circle away from him, he can’t get near you. Moraes was not in any danger while utilizing a counter striking strategy. He only got into trouble when he decided to stand and bang. Mighty Mouse stayed disciplined and counter struck for 25 minutes, and Cejudo didn’t get near him. Cejudo only won the fight from stealing rounds with takedowns. Take his takedowns away, and he loses that fight 50-45. I don’t believe he can take Cruz down, and that’s why I love Cruz in this fight.

It’s obviously risky betting on a guy coming back from major injuries and a 3 year layoff, but in the words of Doyle Brunson…

“That’s why they call it Gambling!”

Every bet you will ever place will have risk factors, and in Dominick Cruz, we’re betting on a guy at big underdog odds that has the skills to completely outclass his opponent if he shows up and looks like he did last time we saw him. Yes, the layoff could hit Cruz hard, and he may look like a shadow of himself. But on the flip side, he may look better than ever because we’ve seen him come back from two long layoffs in the past and show improvements. For 1 unit and at big underdog odds, I’m willing to pay the price and see what happens.

If you struggle to deal with losing, don’t tail this bet. It’s a high risk 50/50 fight. It could go either way.

Reasons for betting on Dominick Cruz

  • Dominick Cruz has excellent takedown defense. He has successfully defended 83% of all takedowns in his 14 fights in the WEC and UFC. This is especially impressive because he has competed against a lot of strong wrestlers throughout his career.
  • Dominick Cruz is almost impossible to hold down. He does a great job of creating scrambles and quickly popping back up to his feet if you do get him down.
  • Henry Cejudo is one of the smallest Bantamweights in the division. Cruz will have a big size advantage in this matchup.
  • Cejudo fights small and compact, whereas Cruz fights long which will amplify the size difference between both guys.
  • The size difference will make it difficult for Cejudo to hold Cruz down.
  • Cruz is a significantly better striker than Henry Cejudo.
  • Henry Cejudo is a very inexperienced striker. He tends to flinch and overreact when his opponent comes forward to attack.
  • Cruz can exploit Cejudo’s nervousness in striking range by overloading him with information.
  • Cruz uses complicated patterns and angles to setup his strikes. He can set his opponent up for an inside leg kick in the same way he throws a left hook. You never know what’s coming and Cejudo is particularly susceptible to getting caught cold.
  • Cejudo is very vulnerable to leg kicks.
  • Cruz tailors his gameplan for each fight specifically to his opponent and there are a lot of holes in Cejudo’s skillset that Cruz can potentially exploit.
  • Cruz has come back from two long layoffs in the past and has showed improvements.
  • The Corona Virus might have a big, negative impact on Cejudo’s training camp and performance.
  • Dominick Cruz has never been KO’d in his entire 24 fight career.

Risk Factors with betting on Dominick Cruz

  • Dominick Cruz is coming into this fight on the back of a 3 year layoff recovering from a broken arm and shoulder surgery.
  • Dominick Cruz is only 35 years old but he has a lot of miles on the clock and the injuries are starting to rack up.
  • Dominick Cruz frequently fights injured. He said he could barely train for the Cody Garbrandt fight due to Plantar Faciitis and he broke his hand and injured his knee against TJ Dillashaw.
  • Henry Cejudo is a world class wrestler.
  • Henry Cejudo is making big improvements from fight to fight.
  • Cejudo hits hard if he can catch you.
  • Cruz fights with his hands low and can be caught.
  • The Corona Virus might have a big negative impact on Cruz, although he has legendary cardio so he’s not in the high risk category of fighter who will be adversely effected.

My Betting Tip

Dominick Cruz to win

Recommended Stake

1 Unit

[1% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 2.90
Moneyline = +190
Fractional = 19/10

34%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Dominick Cruz has a 34% chance of beating Henry Cejudo based on their current odds.

50%

Our Probability

I believe that Dominick Cruz has a 50% chance of beating Henry Cejudo based on my extensive research and analysis.

Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza vs Uriah Hall Betting Tip and Prediction

UFC 249 has been a strange event because I had strong opinions on how so many of these fights would play out, only to then change my mind after watching the footage. I even told people in recent weeks that I felt Cejudo and Bryce Mitchell would be two of the best bets on this card, only to then go and bet against Cejudo and to strongly consider betting against Mitchell too. Jacare vs Hall is another example of this. I can’t say I leaned too heavily, either way, I just didn’t feel that this would be a good matchup for betting. In my mind, it was a classic striker vs grappler matchup with Hall having a big advantage standing and Jacare having a big advantage on the ground. They both had weaknesses that the other had the skills to exploit, so when I saw the odds at around even money, that seemed pretty accurate. I even said at the beginning of the Livestream research session that I didn’t think it’d be a good matchup for betting. I thought this would be a clear pass.

I highly recommend watching the Livestream research session to understand why Jacare is a decent bet at the current odds:

There’s a good chance that if you’re reading this, you’re unsure about betting Jacare because your brain is telling you that Jacare has bad cardio and that Hall’s got an advantage striking. A few hours ago I’d have agreed with both those opinions, but if you watch the recent fights of both guys they paint a very different picture. It turns out that Jacare’s cardio isn’t as bad as you might think, and he might actually have the advantage over Hall when it comes to striking too. As I said, you need to watch the Livestream alongside the past fights to see where I’m coming from.

One thing everyone can agree on is that if Jacare gets this fight to the ground, Hall is in big trouble. Jacare should utterly dominate, and there’s a very good chance if this fight goes to the ground, Jacare will find a way to finish Hall. Jacare is one of the greatest Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioners to ever compete in MMA, and Hall is at a very low level on the ground.

Whether or not Jacare will be able to get this fight to the ground is difficult to predict. Jacare’s offensive wrestling isn’t great, but neither is Hall’s takedown defense. Jacare does shoot nice, deep, double leg entries, but he only tends to shoot an average of one takedown per round, and if he doesn’t get it, he abandons the takedown until the next round. This is because he doesn’t have the gas tank to spam takedowns hard for 15 minutes, so he instead chooses to pace himself.

Pacing is a huge factor to consider in this matchup because at 40 years old, Jacare’s gas tank is obviously not what it used to be. What’s interesting, though, is that Jacare only tends to get tired if you force him to fight on the backfoot. He doesn’t get tired when he’s allowed to be the aggressor and dictate the pace. This is a significant factor to pay attention to because Uriah Hall has a submissive style of fighting where he prefers to be on the back foot. He doesn’t like to be the aggressor or dictate the pace. This will make it much easier for Jacare to pace himself.

Jacare’s also one of these weird fighters that seem to find a second wind out of nowhere. There have been moments in each of his last 3 fights where one minute he’s looking tired and the next he’s looking fine and performing very well. I think Jacare might be one of these guys that doesn’t have a Poker face and isn’t good at hiding when he’s tired, but he can still perform at a high level even when he looks exhaused.

Obviously, if Jacare gets this fight to the ground, Hall is going to be in big trouble, but it’s difficult to gauge what Hall’s chances are of keeping this fight standing because his takedown defense is inconsistent. Hall is very athletic, he’s got great balance, he’s very strong, and he understands what technique needs to be used in order to stuff various different kinds of takedowns. This results in his takedown defense looking pretty impressive at times, but Hall is one of these guys that gets complacent. He often loses concentration, which results in him giving up easy takedowns. One minute he’ll be doing a great job of trying to dig underhooks, then he’ll decide to throw short shots from the clinch instead, which usually results in him getting taken down.

The takedown stats from his last fight against Antonio Carlos Junior paint the perfect picture of Hall’s takedown defense because he only defended 4 out of 8 takedown attempts. If you go back and watch the fight, you can see that 50% of the time, Hall did a great job of stuffing takedowns, and 50% of the time, a strong gust of wind would have been enough to take him down. This is significant because Jacare will probably only need to land one takedown in the fight to finish Hall.

Another giant mistake you’ll see Hall make is that he gives his back up a lot when throwing spinning attacks, defending takedowns, or when working his way back up to his feet. This led to Antonio Carlos Junior being able to take his back multiple times and control him for significant periods of the fight. He did the same against Jotko. If Jacare gets your back, it’s usually a death sentence.

Nothing I’ve said in terms of grappling will be particularly surprising to anyone reading this, but what I’m about to say about striking might.

If you go back and watch all the recent fights from Hall and Jacare, you may be surprised to discover that Hall’s a pretty lousy Boxer. Hall’s striking is all kicks based. He’s pretty bad in Boxing range because he doesn’t have the time or space he needs to set up his kicks. This often results in him getting trapped like a Rabbit in the headlights against the cage. In this position, he’s completely ineffective and tends to be a sitting duck. Hall’s striking defense is surprisingly bad, and he tends to take a lot of damage when you force him to fight on the backfoot.

Jacare and Hall have a lot in common when it comes to striking because they’re both much more effective when they’re allowed to fight on the front foot and be the aggressor as opposed to being forced to fight on the backfoot in a state of reactiveness. The interesting thing is that Hall actually seems to prefer to fight on the back foot and counter-strike, even though he’s not very good at it. Hall is much more dangerous when he is leading the dance, but he rarely chooses to lead the dance. This dynamic should make it much easier for Jacare to be the aggressor in this matchup because Hall easily gives up control of the Octagon to his opponent. He prefers to counter-strike, while Jacare is always trying to battle to be the aggressor.

When Jacare comes forward, his Boxing is very good, and the influence of his longtime training partner, Anderson Silva is evident. Jacare and Silva don’t train much anymore, but they’ve spent 20 years in the gym together sparring, and you can definitely see the impact that Silva’s striking has had on Jacare. For a 40 year old BJJ guy, Jacare’s striking defense is absolutely fantastic. He does a great job of using head movement to defend himself and fight his way inside. Jacare’s high-level striking defense is also backed up by the stats. He’s only been KO’d 2 times in his entire 34 fight career. This is insane when you take into consideration the fact that Jacare has been consistently competing against the best fighters in the world for the last 12 years. He fought Matt Lindland, Tim Kennedy, Robbie Lawler, Yoel Romero, Chris Weidman, Jack Hermansson, Jan Blachowicz, Kelvin Gastelum, Luke Rockhold, and Vitor Belfort and none of those monsters could finish him. The only guy two guys to ever KO Jacare were Gegard Mousasi and Robert Whittaker, and there’s no shame in that. At 40 years old, you can never feel entirely confident in a fighter’s chin, but Jacare’s chin hasn’t shown any signs of cracking yet. We recently saw him eat bombs from Blachowicz, Gastelum, and Hermansson, and we know how dangerous those guys can be. Can Hall knock Jacare out? Absolutely! He can knock out anyone in the division on his day, but Jacare can definitely still take a shot.

If you go back and watch Hall’s recent fights, you’ll see that he struggles when pressured and his Boxing is very average. He really finds it difficult to fire back and counter if you get in his face. Jacare has powerful hooks, great head movement, good footwork, and solid combinations. He’s just a more technical, more complete Boxer. Hall is a flashy, single-shot Boxer who isn’t effective in exchanges. If he catches you cold, you’re in trouble, but in terms of how he’s going to do when both guys are stood in front of each other mixing it up, I don’t feel he has much that will cause Jacare a problem. Let’s face it, what can a 35-year-old Uriah Hall do to Jacare that he hasn’t already seen 10,000 times in the gym when he was sparring every day with the greatest fighter of all time.

The Corona Virus is obviously going to make betting on all the upcoming UFC fights incredibly risky because we do not know how each individual fighter is going to be affected. A quick scan of both fighter’s Instagram profiles shows that the Virus has already had a profound negative effect on both of them. Jacare is training at home in his garage with the likes of Luiz Firmino and Alan Patrick, while Uriah Hall is training by himself at Fortis MMA.

It is impossible to predict what impact the Corona Virus is going to have on each individual fighter, but it’s fair to say that some fighters are likely to be more impacted than others. For example, Tony Ferguson, Donald Cerrone, Dominick Cruz, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Calvin Kattar, Vicente Luque, and Uriah Hall seem to have an endless supply of cardio. I don’t think I’ve ever seen any of those guys take a deep breath. They are obviously less likely to be negatively affected. On the other hand, guys like Justin Gaethje, Francis Ngannou, Michelle Waterson, Anthony Pettis, Bryce Mitchell, Alexei Oleinik, and Niko Price are more likely to be negatively affected because we’ve seen them gas out in the past. Jacare, unfortunately, fits into the latter category.

Another reason why I like Jacare in this fight is because Uriah Hall is very inconsistent. Sometimes he shows up and sometimes he doesn’t. He’s talked in the past about his battles with anxiety and motivation and has also come close to retiring. Jacare, on the other hand, will always show up and fight for your money. He’s the kind of guy that will go out on his shield. Those are the kinds of guys you want to bet because you know win or lose, they’re going to bring it 100% of the time.

After the UFC introduced USADA back in 2015, the sport was plunged into chaos for at least 1 year. During the 12 – 18 months after USADA was implemented, we saw a lot of unpredictable things happen. It was much crazier than usual. Because fighters have had their training camps severely disrupted, I believe we are going to see something similar happen over the next few months until this Corona Virus storm blows over. This is why I recommend keeping bets a little bit smaller than usual and being more cautious. Nobody can predict how each fighter is going to show up and perform amidst this chaos, so we need to be a bit more careful. For this reason, I recommend betting a little less on Jacare than I usually would.

This is not the time to be betting on heavy favorites unless we see something really special. The winning strategy throughout these uncertain times will be to fire off small, speculative bets on great value underdogs and fighters floating around even money who have a clear edge over their opponent. These kinds of bets give you a much better risk to reward ratio in the event that one of them hasn’t been able to train properly and ends up looking really bad. You don’t want to be betting on big favorites when you have absolutely no idea if they’ve been able to train properly over the last few months.

Reasons for betting on Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza

  • Jacare has a significant advantage over Uriah Hall when it comes to grappling.
  • Jacare only tends to gas out when he is not allowed to dictate the pace of a fight. Hall prefers to counter strike and lets his opponent lead the dance. This will enable Jacare to pace himself.
  • Jacare has only been KO’d two times in his entire 34 fight career.
  • Jacare has excellent striking defense. He uses a lot of head movement to roll with the punches.
  • Jacare has excellent Boxing when fighting on the front foot. He has good footwork and lands great combinations.
  • Uriah Hall isn’t a very good Boxer. His striking is all kicks based.
  • Uriah Hall struggles when pressured because he doesn’t have the time or space to get his kicks off.
  • Uriah Hall is a single shot fighter. He doesn’t really mix it up or throw combinations.
  • Uriah Hall gets complacent and gives up easy takedowns.
  • Uriah Hall is at such a low level on the ground, that Jacare will probably only need to take him down once in order to get a finish.
  • Uriah Hall is very inconsistent.
  • Jacare has excellent striking defense and an amazing chin.
  • Jacare is incredibly consistent. Win or lose, you know that he’s always going to show up and fight for your money.
  • Jacare has good Boxing combinations and knock out power.

Risk Factors with betting on Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza

  • Uriah Hall will have a 7 inch reach advantage although he doesn’t do a very good job of using it.
  • Jacare is 40 years old. At this stage in his career he’ll be on a significant decline.
  • Uriah Hall has devastating KO power.
  • Jacare tends to slow down a lot if you make him work hard.
  • Uriah Hall is pretty hard to takedown when he is fully focused on defending takedowns.
  • Uriah Hall has excellent cardio. I don’t think I’ve ever seen him breathing heavily.
  • The Corona Virus may have a big, negative impact on Jacare.
  • Uriah Hall is very dangerous when he is being the aggressor.

My Betting Tip

Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza to win

Recommended Stake

1.5 Units

[1% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.83
Moneyline = -120
Fractional = 83/10

55%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Jacare has a 55% chance of beating Uriah Hall based on their current odds.

60%

Our Probability

I believe that Jacare has a 60% chance of beating Uriah Hall based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.