UFC 250 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

UFC 250 kicks off a busy month for us as we now have an event every single weekend for the next 4 weeks.

Don’t forget that Live Betting has now open to everyone. Click here if you’d like to join us for Live Betting this weekend. With so many competitive fights on this card, it could be a good one.

Fight Betting Tip Who I think will win Who I think is the better bet
Amanda Nunes vs Felicia Spencer No bet Nunes Spencer
Cody Garbrandt vs Raphael Assuncao No bet Garbrandt Garbrandt
Aljamain Sterling vs Cory Sandhagen No bet Sandhagen Sandhagen
Anthony Rocco Martin vs Neil Magny No bet Magny Martin
Eddie Wineland vs Sean O’Malley No bet O’Malley O’Malley
Alex Caceres vs Chase Hooper 3 units on under 2.5 rounds at odds of 1.69 | -145 | 69/100 Caceres Caceres
Gerald Meerschaert vs Ian Heinisch No bet Meerschaert Meerschaert
Brian Kelleher vs Cody Stamann 1 unit on Brian Kelleher to win at odds of 3.10 | +210 | 21/10 Kelleher Kelleher
Charles Byrd vs Maki Pitolo No bet Byrd Byrd
Alex Perez vs Jussier Formiga No bet Perez Perez
Alonzo Menifield vs Devin Clark No bet Menifield Menifield
Evan Dunham vs Herbert Burns No bet Burns Burns

Alex Caceres vs Chase Hooper Betting Tip and Prediction

Alex Caceres vs Chase Hooper is a matchup full of extremes. Hooper will have an extreme advantage if the fight goes to the ground, while Caceres will have an extreme advantage if the fight stays standing.

If you spend some time researching both fighters, it will become clear that Hooper cannot defend himself standing, and Caceres cannot defend himself on the ground. No matter who you lean towards in this matchup, these extremes mean that a bet on this fight to end under 2.5 rounds is great value because if the fight stays standing it’s very likely that Caceres knocks Hooper out and if it goes to the ground, it’s very likely that Hooper submits Caceres or stops him with ground and pound.

I recommend watching our Livestream research session on this fight for a more detailed breakdown of how this fight is likely to play out:

I would also urge you not to fall victim of Wikicapping a fight like this. I understand that on paper, Caceres does not look particularly dangerous standing, but it’s important to remember that Hooper is only 20 years old. He’s very young in his career and hasn’t had the time needed to develop striking yet. He is a sitting duck standing. He almost got knocked out 3 times in his Contender Series fight against Canaan Kawaihae, and Lashawn Alcocks almost knocked him out too.

You won’t have to look very far to see why Hooper is likely to get the finish if the fight goes to the ground. Just go take a look at how devastating he is from top position and how badly Caceres has struggled on the ground against guys like Steven Petersen, Kron Gracie, and Jason Knight. It is worth noting, however, that Petersen, Gracie, and Knight are much better offensive wrestlers than Hooper. Based on what we’ve seen, Hooper is a very weak wrestler. That doesn’t mean that he hasn’t improved, though, and it doesn’t mean that Caceres can’t slip on a Banana Skin.

I am also very likely to place a small, high-risk gamble bet on Alex Caceres to win straight. There’s no need for us to lock that bet in yet because his odds are currently improving.

The logic behind the high-risk bet is that this is about as close to a 50/50 fight as you are ever going to see, so betting Caceres as a moderately sized underdog is the logical thing to do. I don’t personally lean towards either guy in this matchup, I just see two fighters with massive weaknesses that their opponents have the skills to exploit. I’ll write an additional breakdown for a bet on Caceres if I decide to pull the trigger on him later in the week.

Reasons for betting on the under 2.5 rounds

  • 7 out of Chase Hooper’s last 10 fights have ended under 2.5 rounds.
  • Alex Caceres’ takedown defense is very, very bad.
  • Alex Caceres is at a super low level on the ground. He doesn’t know how to defend himself.
  • Chase Hooper is deadly from top position. He aggressively pursues the finish and rains down devastating ground and pound.
  • Chase Hooper has excellent back control.
  • Chase Hooper understands the importance of maintaining dominant positions. When he gets top position or your back, he rarely lets it go. Caceres struggles to work out of positions on the ground.
  • Chase Hooper has absolutely no striking defense whatsoever. He frequently gets rocked, dropped or wobbled.
  • Caceres is a decent counter striker. It’s likely he’ll be able to land bombs anytime he wants because Hooper doesn’t see the shots coming.
  • Hooper is only 20 years old which means he should be making big improvements from fight to fight. Hopefully this will mean he’ll have improved his wrestling compared to what we have seen from him before.
  • 3 out of Caceres’s last 6 fights have ended under 2.5 rounds.
  • Fights are more likely to end inside the distance when they take place in a small cage.

Risk Factors with betting on under 2.5 rounds

  • Anything can happen in MMA.
  • Hooper is only 20 years old and making big improvements from fight to fight. It’s possible that he may have improved his striking defense enough to survive against Caceres standing, but may not have the wrestling to take Caceres down. This would likely result in the fight going the distance.
  • Chase Hooper is not effective from the bottom. If he can’t get Caceres’ back or get into top position, Caceres will likely be pretty comfortable in top position. This would run the clock down and make it more likely that the fight goes the distance.

My Betting Tip

Under 2.5 rounds

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.69
Moneyline = -145
Fractional = 69/100

59%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that this fight has a 61% chance of lasting less than 2.5 rounds based on their current odds.

70%

Our Probability

I believe that this fight has a 70% chance of ending under 2.5 rounds based on my extensive research and analysis.

Brian Kelleher vs Cody Stamann Betting Tip and Prediction

I never expected to be betting Brian Kelleher this weekend, which is why his fight against Cody Stamann was one of the last fights that I had left to research on UFC 250. To my surprise, after watching all their recent matchups, I was struggling to find any area where Stamann had a big enough advantage over Kelleher to justify his big favorite odds.

One of Stamann’s big weaknesses is that he struggles to put his stamp on rounds and fails to do much damage with his grappling control. This is the main reason why he’s fought to a draw and had two split decisions in his last 5 fights. This inability to put his stamp on rounds beyond all reasonable doubt means that there’s almost always going to be value in betting against him in competitive fights if his opponent is reasonably skilled and a big underdog. Brian Kelleher ticks both of those boxes.

It also helps that MMA judges are completely and utterly terrible. If Kelleher can do just enough to make this a competitive fight, he stands a good chance of being awarded the decision whether he wins or not. I believe Kelleher has the skills to at least make this fight competitive. I don’t see Stamann dominating here. He doesn’t have the style for that.

Remember that the odds on Kelleher are giving us more than a 2:1 return on our money if he wins, which gives us a great risk to reward ratio. There are a lot of ways that Kelleher can end up winning this fight.

For a more in-depth breakdown of the reasons why I recommend betting Brian Kelleher, you should check out my Livestream research session on this fight:

This fight will ultimately depend on whether Stamann can take Kelleher down and hold him down. From their past fights, it’s tough to gauge whether this will be possible because we’ve never seen Kelleher fight a strong wrestler. What we do know is that Kelleher is a skilled submission grappler, and he has shown flashes of good takedown defense.

If the fight stays standing, I give Kelleher the edge, and he may also be able to cause Stamann some problems on the ground with his tricky submission game.

Stamann is one of these guys that very much fights in bursts and tries to steal rounds with his takedowns. In contrast, Kelleher has excellent cardio and fights at a very high pace. He’s constantly forcing his opponent to work.

We’ve see Kelleher compete since the lockdown on short notice, and he looked great. We have no idea how Stamann’s gas tank is going to hold up on short notice.

There are a lot of reasons to bet Kelleher here as a big underdog, but that doesn’t change the fact that this is a high-risk bet that could go either way. I recommend doing your own research and don’t tail this one if you struggle to cope with losing. There’s a good chance that Stamann wins this, that’s why he’s a big favorite.

Reasons for betting on Brian Kelleher

  • Brian Kelleher has a really short reach at 64 inches and gives up a reach advantage to everyone. Stamann also has a 64 inch reach. This will be the first time where Kelleher will be able to land punches without having to work his way inside a big reach disadvantage.
  • Brian Kelleher has an excellent gas tank. He fights at a relentless pace.
  • Cody Stamann paces himself by fighting in bursts. Kelleher makes this difficult because he’s constantly forcing his opponents to work.
  • Brian Kelleher is a skilled submission grappler.
  • Brian Kelleher has done a good job of quickly popping back up to his feet when taken down in the past.
  • Cody Stamann is quite small so he often struggles to hold guys down. This is the reason why he has to shoot so many takedowns per fight.
  • Cody Stamann struggles to put his stamp on rounds.
  • Brian Kelleher should have a slight advantage if the fight stays standing.
  • Brian Kelleher is excellent in the scramble.
  • Brian Kelleher has a nasty guillotine choke that he uses to obtain top position if he doesn’t feel he’s going to complete a submission.
  • We haven’t yet seen how Cody Stamann will perform on short notice under a disrupted training camp.
  • The smaller cage should make it easier for Kelleher to defend takedowns because when Cody shoots, Kelleher won’t have to travel back very far to use the cage as a base to get his balance.

Risk Factors with betting on Brian Kelleher

  • Cody Stamann is a very strong wrestler.
  • We haven’t seen too much footage on Kelleher’s takedown defense.
  • We haven’t seen how Kelleher looks if held down and forced to fight off his back.
  • This will be Kelleher’s second fight in the last month.

My Betting Tip

Brian Kelleher to win

Recommended Stake

1 Unit

[1% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 3.10
Moneyline = +210
Fractional = 21/10

32%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Brian Kelleher has a 32% chance of beating Cody Stamann based on their current odds.

40%

Our Probability

I believe that Brian Kelleher has a 40% chance of beating Cody Stamann based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.