UFC 250 kicks off a busy month for us as we now have an event every single weekend for the next 4 weeks.
Don’t forget that Live Betting has now open to everyone. Click here if you’d like to join us for Live Betting this weekend. With so many competitive fights on this card, it could be a good one.
|Fight||Betting Tip||Who I think will win||Who I think is the better bet|
|Amanda Nunes vs Felicia Spencer||No bet||Nunes||Spencer|
|Cody Garbrandt vs Raphael Assuncao||No bet||Garbrandt||Garbrandt|
|Aljamain Sterling vs Cory Sandhagen||No bet||Sandhagen||Sandhagen|
|Anthony Rocco Martin vs Neil Magny||No bet||Magny||Martin|
|Eddie Wineland vs Sean O’Malley||No bet||O’Malley||O’Malley|
|Alex Caceres vs Chase Hooper||3 units on under 2.5 rounds at odds of 1.69 | -145 | 69/100||Caceres||Caceres|
|Gerald Meerschaert vs Ian Heinisch||No bet||Meerschaert||Meerschaert|
|Brian Kelleher vs Cody Stamann||1 unit on Brian Kelleher to win at odds of 3.10 | +210 | 21/10||Kelleher||Kelleher|
|Charles Byrd vs Maki Pitolo||No bet||Byrd||Byrd|
|Alex Perez vs Jussier Formiga||No bet||Perez||Perez|
|Alonzo Menifield vs Devin Clark||No bet||Menifield||Menifield|
|Evan Dunham vs Herbert Burns||No bet||Burns||Burns|
Alex Caceres vs Chase Hooper Betting Tip and Prediction
Alex Caceres vs Chase Hooper is a matchup full of extremes. Hooper will have an extreme advantage if the fight goes to the ground, while Caceres will have an extreme advantage if the fight stays standing.
If you spend some time researching both fighters, it will become clear that Hooper cannot defend himself standing, and Caceres cannot defend himself on the ground. No matter who you lean towards in this matchup, these extremes mean that a bet on this fight to end under 2.5 rounds is great value because if the fight stays standing it’s very likely that Caceres knocks Hooper out and if it goes to the ground, it’s very likely that Hooper submits Caceres or stops him with ground and pound.
I recommend watching our Livestream research session on this fight for a more detailed breakdown of how this fight is likely to play out:
I would also urge you not to fall victim of Wikicapping a fight like this. I understand that on paper, Caceres does not look particularly dangerous standing, but it’s important to remember that Hooper is only 20 years old. He’s very young in his career and hasn’t had the time needed to develop striking yet. He is a sitting duck standing. He almost got knocked out 3 times in his Contender Series fight against Canaan Kawaihae, and Lashawn Alcocks almost knocked him out too.
You won’t have to look very far to see why Hooper is likely to get the finish if the fight goes to the ground. Just go take a look at how devastating he is from top position and how badly Caceres has struggled on the ground against guys like Steven Petersen, Kron Gracie, and Jason Knight. It is worth noting, however, that Petersen, Gracie, and Knight are much better offensive wrestlers than Hooper. Based on what we’ve seen, Hooper is a very weak wrestler. That doesn’t mean that he hasn’t improved, though, and it doesn’t mean that Caceres can’t slip on a Banana Skin.
I am also very likely to place a small, high-risk gamble bet on Alex Caceres to win straight. There’s no need for us to lock that bet in yet because his odds are currently improving.
The logic behind the high-risk bet is that this is about as close to a 50/50 fight as you are ever going to see, so betting Caceres as a moderately sized underdog is the logical thing to do. I don’t personally lean towards either guy in this matchup, I just see two fighters with massive weaknesses that their opponents have the skills to exploit. I’ll write an additional breakdown for a bet on Caceres if I decide to pull the trigger on him later in the week.
Reasons for betting on the under 2.5 rounds
Risk Factors with betting on under 2.5 rounds
My Betting Tip
Under 2.5 rounds
[3% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.69
Moneyline = -145
Fractional = 69/100
The bookies believe that this fight has a 61% chance of lasting less than 2.5 rounds based on their current odds.
Brian Kelleher vs Cody Stamann Betting Tip and Prediction
I never expected to be betting Brian Kelleher this weekend, which is why his fight against Cody Stamann was one of the last fights that I had left to research on UFC 250. To my surprise, after watching all their recent matchups, I was struggling to find any area where Stamann had a big enough advantage over Kelleher to justify his big favorite odds.
One of Stamann’s big weaknesses is that he struggles to put his stamp on rounds and fails to do much damage with his grappling control. This is the main reason why he’s fought to a draw and had two split decisions in his last 5 fights. This inability to put his stamp on rounds beyond all reasonable doubt means that there’s almost always going to be value in betting against him in competitive fights if his opponent is reasonably skilled and a big underdog. Brian Kelleher ticks both of those boxes.
It also helps that MMA judges are completely and utterly terrible. If Kelleher can do just enough to make this a competitive fight, he stands a good chance of being awarded the decision whether he wins or not. I believe Kelleher has the skills to at least make this fight competitive. I don’t see Stamann dominating here. He doesn’t have the style for that.
Remember that the odds on Kelleher are giving us more than a 2:1 return on our money if he wins, which gives us a great risk to reward ratio. There are a lot of ways that Kelleher can end up winning this fight.
For a more in-depth breakdown of the reasons why I recommend betting Brian Kelleher, you should check out my Livestream research session on this fight:
This fight will ultimately depend on whether Stamann can take Kelleher down and hold him down. From their past fights, it’s tough to gauge whether this will be possible because we’ve never seen Kelleher fight a strong wrestler. What we do know is that Kelleher is a skilled submission grappler, and he has shown flashes of good takedown defense.
If the fight stays standing, I give Kelleher the edge, and he may also be able to cause Stamann some problems on the ground with his tricky submission game.
Stamann is one of these guys that very much fights in bursts and tries to steal rounds with his takedowns. In contrast, Kelleher has excellent cardio and fights at a very high pace. He’s constantly forcing his opponent to work.
We’ve see Kelleher compete since the lockdown on short notice, and he looked great. We have no idea how Stamann’s gas tank is going to hold up on short notice.
There are a lot of reasons to bet Kelleher here as a big underdog, but that doesn’t change the fact that this is a high-risk bet that could go either way. I recommend doing your own research and don’t tail this one if you struggle to cope with losing. There’s a good chance that Stamann wins this, that’s why he’s a big favorite.
Reasons for betting on Brian Kelleher
Risk Factors with betting on Brian Kelleher
My Betting Tip
Brian Kelleher to win
[1% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 3.10
Moneyline = +210
Fractional = 21/10
The bookies believe that Brian Kelleher has a 32% chance of beating Cody Stamann based on their current odds.