UFC 252 – Cormier vs Miocic Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

Last weekend we banked profits on both Prefight and Live Betting to take us to 3-1 on Prefight bets for the month and 4-1 on Live Bets for the month.

I spoke about how we did last weekend in more detail in the beginning of the research Livestream for Yoder vs Souza. Check it out:

We now turn our attention to the fights this weekend at UFC 252, where I hope to add to the profits that we’ve already made this month. I know that many of you get really excited about these big Pay Per View events, so to celebrate a big card this weekend, I am reducing the cost of my Live Betting Tips. You can now join us this weekend for a one-off payment of just $35.


Fight Betting Tip Who I think will win Who I think is the better bet
Daniel Cormier vs Stipe Miocic No bet Miocic Miocic
Marlon Vera vs Sean O’Malley No bet O’Malley Vera
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Junior Dos Santos No bet Rozenstruik Rozenstruik
John Dodson vs Merab Dvalishvili No bet Dvalishvili Dvalishvili
Jim Miller vs Vinc Pichel No bet Miller Miller
Daniel Pineda vs Herbert Burns No bet Burns Burns
Ashley Yoder vs Livinha Souza 1 unit on Ashley Yoder to win at odds of 2.35 | +135 | 27/20 Yoder Yoder
Felice Herrig vs Virna Jandiroba No bet Jandiroba Herrig
Danny Chavez vs TJ Brown No bet Chavez Chavez
Christopher Daukaus vs Parker Porter No bet Porter Porter
Kai Kamaka vs Tony Kelley No bet Kamaka Kelley

Ashley Yoder vs Livinha Souza Betting Tip and Prediction

Ashley Yoder was one of the first names that jumped out at me as a potential bet this weekend. This is why her fight against Souza was the first fight that I researched on UFC 252.

I don’t feel as confident in Yoder as I thought after researching this fight because her striking is nowhere near as good as I thought it was, but as an underdog, there’s still good value in betting on her to win.

I recommend watching my Livestream research session for a more comprehensive breakdown of why I believe Yoder is a decent bet this weekend.

I recommend a bet on Ashley Yoder for very similar reasons that I recommended a bet on Jennifer Maia to beat Joanne Calderwood a couple of weeks back.

We knew going into that fight that Maia had big weaknesses that Calderwood could potentially exploit, but we also knew that Calderwood had weaknesses that Maia could exploit. It’s exactly the same logic with this matchup between Yoder and Souza.

I don’t lean towards Yoder or Souza, I don’t know who will win this fight, but I do know that it should be close, competitive and that Yoder has an advantage over Souza in the one area where this fight is likely to take place. On the ground…

With Yoder being the underdog in this fight, we’re getting a good margin of value because I cap this fight at much closer to 50/50 than the odds suggest.

Souza will have the advantage if the fight stays standing because Yoder is super slow with bad striking defense. Souza is nothing special when it comes to striking, but Yoder is a pure grappler who does not see the shots coming.

I think Yoder is a good bet here, even though Souza has an advantage when it comes to striking, because both these girls are primarily grapplers, and a good portion of their fights always take place on the ground.

Souza has a base in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and Yoder has a base in Wrestling. On the most basic of levels, this is why I feel there’s good value on Yoder at underdog odds. Souza’s base in Jiu-Jitsu leads her to instinctively pull guard and give up good positions chasing long shot submissions. Yoder, on the other hand, is more focused on position. She has excellent back control, a heavy top game, and long limbs that help her to control her opponents on the ground.

Yoder will also have a big size advantage in this matchup. She’s 5 ft 7, which is huge for a Strawweight. She also has a 3-inch reach advantage over Souza. Yoder uses her size really well to create scrambles and control her opponents on the ground.

I need to make it clear that it’s unlikely that Yoder will win this fight easily. I expect this matchup to be competitive, but on the ground, Yoder is the more intelligent grappler who understands the importance of position over submission.

Fight IQ so often dictates the outcome of fights, and Yoder’s understanding of how important top position and control time are could be the difference here because Souza is weak off her back and frequently

Reasons for betting on Ashley Yoder

  • Ashley Yoder has a size and reach advantage over Souza. This should give her an advantage when it comes to grappling.
  • Ashley Yoder has long limbs. She uses her long legs to establish deep hooks on slick back takes and her long arms make it easier for her to control her opponent.
  • Ashley Yoder has decent double leg takedowns.
  • Souza has very bad takedown defense.
  • Ashley Yoder understands the importance of position over submission.
  • Ashley Yoder has a heavy top game.
  • Ashley Yoder has excellent back control.
  • Even when Yoder gets tired she can still grapple effectively.
  • Souza has bad fight IQ.
  • Souza frequently pulls guard.
  • Souza is very weak off her back.
  • Souza tends to slow down as the fight progresses.
  • Souza often gives up position chasing longshot submissions.

Risk Factors with betting on Ashley Yoder

  • Ashley Yoder has bad cardio.
  • Souza is a significantly better striker than Ashley Yoder.
  • Ashley Yoder has really bad striking defense, she doesn’t see the shots coming.
  • Souza has a decent ground game.
  • If this fight stays standing, Yoder will probably lose.

My Betting Tip

Ashley Yoder to win

Recommended Stake

1 Unit

[1% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 2.35
Moneyline = +135
Fractional = 27/20

43%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Ashley Yoder has a 43% chance of beating Livinha Souza based on their current odds.

50%

Our Probability

I believe that Ashley Yoder has a 50% chance of beating Livinha Souza based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.