Betting Tips, Picks & Predictions – TUF Finale Brazil

We’ve got 4 betting tips for the Ultimate Fighter Finale in Brazil and we’re hoping for another good win after banking a decent profit from our bets at UFC 173.

Don’t forget to checkout our betting tips, picks and predictions for UFC Fight Night 41, which takes place a few hours before the TUF Finale in Brazil.

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EDIMILSON SOUZA vs MARK EDDIVA

When I first watched footage of Edimilson Souza and Mark Eddiva, I actually thought that Eddiva would be the favourite in this fight. The odds of 4.00 | +300 | 3/1 on Eddiva to win are absolutely insane and I haven’t seen such a good value bet in a long time!

This is a perfect example of how odds makers frequently get the odds wrong for MMA fights.

It’s no secret that foreign fighters struggle to perform in Brazil, but I don’t believe that it will be such a big problem for Eddiva. One of the main factors that affects a fighter’s performance in Brazil, is the impact that the heat and humidity has on their cardio. This won’t be as big a factor for Eddiva, because he trains in the Phillipines and will be used to fighting in hot and humid climates.

Edimilson Souza is a tough test for anyone but Mark Eddiva is just a little too well rounded to lose this fight.

Souza has great striking and decent take down defence, but Eddiva mixes up his striking and take downs so well, that Souza won’t be able to settle into his usual rhythm.

Betting Mark Eddiva to win at odds of 4.00 | +300 | 3/1 is one of the best value bets I’ve seen in a long time!

OUR BETTING TIP: 10.00 Units on Mark Eddiva to win at odds of 4.00 | +300 | 3/1
THE BEST ODDS ON MARK EDDIVA TO WIN CAN BE FOUND AT: [adrotate group=”62″]

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GASAN UMALATOV vs PAULO THIAGO

Paulo Thiago is a decision machine and Gasan Umalatov is tough as hell but lacks finishing power. This fight goes the distance 9 times out of 10.

Paulo Tiago is not the fighter he was. I think that Gasan Umalatov will be able to make this fight ugly and control Paulo Thiago for large periods of the fight, eventually winning via a decision.

Bet on Umalatov to win this fight and also put down an insurance bet on this fight to go over 2.5 rounds…

OUR FIRST BETTING TIP: 10.00 Units on this fight to over 2.5 rounds at odds of 1.53 | -189 | 53/100
OUR SECOND BETTING TIP: 10.00 Units on Gasan Umalatov to win at odds of 2.80 | +180 | 9/5
THE BEST ODDS ON THIS FIGHT CAN BE FOUND AT: [adrotate group=”64″]

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ROBBIE PERALTA vs RONY JASON

Rony Jason’s middle name is “violence” and Robbie Peralta’s party trick is putting people to sleep. The chances of both guys leaving the Octagon on Saturday night with their consciousness in tact is extremely slim and if this fight were to go the distance it would defy all laws of probability.

Robbie Peralta loves to turn fights into crazy brawls and this will suit Rony Jason, who loves to scrap.

One of these guys is going to get knocked out and I’d be amazed if this fight makes it to a second round.

OUR BETTING TIP: 10.00 Units on this fight not to go the distance at odds of 1.73 | -136 | 73/100
THE BEST ODDS ON THIS FIGHT NOT TO GO THE DISTANCE CAN BE FOUND AT: [adrotate group=”66″]

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FABIO MALDONADO vs STIPE MIOCIC

Most people are counting out Fabio Maldonado, but people have also counted out Will Brooks, Johnny Eduardo and TJ Dillashaw in recent weeks. I believe that Fabio Maldonado will beat Stipe Miocic…

I understand that you might be reading this and completely disagree with my betting tip for this fight, so I thought I’d list my reasons for betting on Maldonado to win…

1. Home advantage is a HUGE factor in Brazil and Fabio Maldonado is an extremely popular fighter in his homeland. I believe that Stipe Miocic has to finish Maldonado in order to win, because it is notoriously difficult to win decisions against popular Brazilian fighters, when they fight in Brazil. This is a problem for Stipe Miocic, because he lacks finishing power and Maldonado is tough as nails.

2. Stipe Miocic’s MMA record of 11-1 may look impressive, but he doesn’t have any wins over top class opponents. His last two wins have come against Gabriel Gonzaga who broke his hand in the first round and Roy Nelson who was suffering from a virus when they fought. He fought Stefan Struve prior to that and Miocic was brutally knocked out in that fight.

3. Fabio Maldonado is unquestionably the best striker that Miocic has ever faced. Miocic has enjoyed a speed advantage over all his previous opponents, but Maldonado has excellent boxing and it’s going to be really difficult for Miocic to out-strike the Brazilian.

4. Fabio Maldonado has pretty good take down defence and even if he did get taken down, I’m not sure whether it would affect the outcome of this fight that much. Referees are known to stand up fights pretty quickly on Brazilian soil, due to the pressure from the crowd. Judges are also a lot more unpredictable with the way they allocate points for take downs and Octagon control.

5. Fabio Maldonado is a huge star in Brazil and the crowd will play a big part in this fight. Every time he lands a big punch they will go crazy and every time Miocic takes him down or clinches they will boo and pressure the referee into separating them. The crowd will create a very intimidating atmosphere and Miocic is going to feel pressure like he’s never felt before.

6. Stipe Miocic lives and trains in Ohio which is a pretty cold most of the time and covered in snow for several months of the year. Fighting for 5 rounds in the heat and humidity of Brazil is no joke and it’s something that could prove very difficult for Miocic. He hasn’t shown any signs of bad cardio in the past, but unless Miocic is training at altitude, it’s almost impossible to prepare his body for the conditions he’ll be facing in that arena on Saturday night.

7. Judges always tend to favour Brazilian fighters in Brazil.

The odds of 5.50 | +450 | 9/2 on Fabio Maldonado to win make this a great value bet. I believe that home advantage, the crowd and the heat and humidity of Brazil will cause big problems for Stipe Miocic. I don’t feel 100% confident in this bet, but I’ll take it all day long as these odds!

I’m also going to place a 10.00 unit insurance bet on this fight, because I believe there is a very good chance that it will go the distance…

OUR FIRST BETTING TIP: 8.00 Units on Fabio Maldonado to win at odds of 5.50 | +450 | 9/2
OUR SECOND BETTING TIP: 2.00 Units on Maldonado to win by decision at odds of 14.75 | +1375 | 55/4
OUR INSURANCE BET: 10.00 Units on this fight going over 2.5 rounds at odds of 1.80 | -125 | 4/5
THE BEST ODDS ON FABIO MALDONADO TO WIN CAN BE FOUND AT: [adrotate group=”68″]

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I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.