[adrotate group=”25″]When I first heard about this fight, I thought that it would be an easy win for Johny Hendricks, but my opinion completely changed when I started to research my betting tips for UFC 171…
Robbie Lawler is a significant underdog in the betting lines and also a significant underdog in public opinion, but the numbers do not lie and several significant numbers point to Robbie Lawler winning this fight. That probably surprises you, hell it really surprised me! So I’m going to do my best to explain the reasons why the smart money is being bet on Lawler to win this fight.
The first edge that Lawler has over Hendricks, is his 5 inch reach advantage. This is a big reach advantage for the Welterweight division and it’s going to make it hard for Hendricks to close the distance and land take downs. Lawler is a more experienced striker and he knows how to use his reach. It’s a pretty safe bet that Lawler’s reach advantage will allow him to land more strikes on Hendricks, than Hendricks can land on him and this is a clear path to victory for the underdog.
Another factor to consider, is that Johny Hendricks and Robbie Lawler both fight in the Southpaw stance. When Southpaws fight Southpaws, fights tend to be tentative and uneventful, as Southpaws aren’t used to fighting other Southpaws.
Normally this wouldn’t be an advantage for either guy, but I believe a Southpaw vs Southpaw match up is an advantage for Robbie Lawler. This is because Lawler is primarily a striker and Johny Hendricks is primarily a wrestler. Lawler is going to be way more comfortable in the stand up exchanges and his reach advantage will help him settle into the fight and find his range quicker. Lawler also has almost double the amount of career fights that Hendricks has, so whilst Hendricks may look like a decent striker, you have to remember that he’s only been focusing on his striking the last couple of years.
Johny Hendricks and Robbie Lawler are both considered powerful knock out artists and many people will see this as a path to victory for both fighters, but they’re not as powerful as you might think…
If you were thinking of placing a bet on either of these guys to win by knock out, then you might want to continue reading this article because I’m about to save you some money…
Southpaw fighters always appear to have more power than they actually do, because Southpaws fight Orthodox stance fighters in 80% of their fights. This is where they are at their most dangerous, because Orthodox stance fighters naturally move into the power left hand of the Southpaw fighter. This means that a Southpaw doesn’t have to be that powerful, he just has to land a solid punch, whilst his Orthodox stanced opponent is moving towards it. This basic rule of physics creates the illusion that some Southpaw fighters have incredible power! In reality they are no more powerful than the guy they are fighting, but the power of their punches is multiplied, because their opponent is moving towards the punch, which means the impact is far greater!
The point I am trying to make, is that a Southpaw fighter is nowhere near as dangerous against a fellow Southpaw, as they will both be circling away from the power left hand of their opponent. I’d be very surprised if Hendricks was as dangerous against Lawler as he normally is against Orthodox stanced fighters and I feel like this is a big advantage for Lawler, who is a more experienced striker.
Still unconvinced? Lets dig a little deeper…
Johny Hendricks has fought 12 times in the UFC and he’s only ever lost twice. If you disregard his decision loss to George St Pierre [because everyone believes he won]. Then he’s only ever lost one fight in the UFC. This single loss was a unanimous decision loss to Rick Story. Now there’s no shame in losing to a guy like Rick Story, but there is something very significant about this loss…
Rick Story is a Southpaw!
Out of the 12 guys Hendricks has fought in the UFC, 10 of them are Orthodox stanced fighters and 2 of them are Southpaws. The only guy to legitimately beat him in 12 fights was a Southpaw!
Johny Hendricks’ key to winning this fight will be his superior wrestling and takedowns, but I’m not convinced that it will be enough to beat Lawler. Hendricks has shown in his recent fights that he likes to strike and he’s shown a reluctance to shoot for the takedown. Lawler has decent take down defence, having defended 63% of all take down attacks in the UFC. I believe that Lawler has all the tools necessary to stuff the majority of Hendrick’s takedown attempts and pick him apart with his superior striking.
This fight could go either way, but it’s a hell of a lot closer than the fans, media and betting lines would suggest. There is enough evidence in place to prove that Lawler has a legitimate chance of winning this fight and at the incredible value odds of 4.25 | +325 | 13/4 we have to take a chance.
If Lawler can keep this fight standing then he will win, if he can’t, he will lose. We don’t know for sure whether he will be able to use his reach and take down defence to keep Hendricks from taking this fight to the ground, but he certainly has all the skills necessary to do so.
If Robbie Lawler wins the Welterweight title on Saturday night, it will be the real life Rocky story that the UFC has been waiting for. This bet is simple, we’re backing Lawler to win. It’s risky, but the odds make it worth the risk. Place your bets over at [adrotate group=”30″] who currently have the best odds available for this fight.
OUR BET: 10.00 UNITS ON ROBBIE LAWLER TO WIN AT 4.25 | +325 | 13/4
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BEST ODDS AVAILABLE FOR THIS UFC FIGHT…
The best odds for this fight can be found at [adrotate group=”30″].
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MORE UFC BETTING TIPS FOR UFC 171…
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