UFC Fight Night – Calvillo vs Eye Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

UFC Fight Night – Calvillo vs Eye is the start of a huge run of events that the UFC has just announced as part of their action-packed Summer schedule.

 

Event Date
UFC – Calvillo vs Eye June 13th
UFC – Blaydes vs Volkov June 20th
UFC – Poirier vs Hooker June 27th
UFC 251 – Burns vs Usman July 11th
UFC Yas Island July 15th
UFC – Benavidez vs Figueiredo July 18th
UFC – Till vs Whittaker July 25th
UFC – Aldana vs Holm August 1st
UFC 252 – Cormier vs Miocic August 15th

 

This busy summer schedule means I will be Livestreaming my fight research for 4-5 hours a day almost every day from now until mid-August. I hope that you’ll join me for as many fight research Livestreams as possible.

You can also now buy access to join me for Live Betting this weekend.

Usually, at this stage in the betting tips article, I’d recap our performance on last week’s bets, but I also do this in the first Livestream of every new week. Since we have a bet on the very first fight that I researched this week, you can instead checkout the video below for my thoughts on last week’s bets.

Fight Betting Tip Who I think will win Who I think is the better bet
Cynthia Calvillo vs Jessica Eye 2 units on Cynthia Calvillo at odds of 1.91 | -110 | 91/100 Calvillo Calvillo
Karl Roberson vs Marvin Vettori No bet Vettori Roberson
Merab Dvalishvili vs Gustavo Lopez No bet Dvalishvili Lopez
Andre Fili vs Charles Jourdain No bet Fili Fili
Jordan Espinosa vs Mark De La Rosa No bet Espinosa De La Rosa
Hannah Cifers vs Mariya Agapova No bet Agapova Agapova
Charles Rosa vs Kevin Aguilar 3 units on Kevin Aguilar at odds of 1.59 | -169 | 59/100 Aguilar Aguilar
Gina Mazany vs Julia Avila No bet Avila Avila
Tyson Nam vs Zarrukh Adashev No bet Adashev Adashev
Anthony Ivy vs Christian Aguilera No bet Ivy Ivy

Charles Rosa vs Kevin Aguilar Betting Tip and Prediction

Kevin Aguilar was the first name that jumped out at me as a potential bet on this card, and after taking a look at the recent fights of both guys, I like what I see from Aguilar.

There are, of course, risk factors with this bet because you’ll never find a bet without risk, but Aguilar has a lot going for him here. I recommend checking out my Livestream research session for this fight to learn more about the reasons why I think Aguilar is a decent bet at the current odds:

Long layoffs are often detrimental to a fighter’s career, and the Charles Rosa we have seen in his last two fights appears to be very different from the Charles Rosa we saw before the 3-year layoff that derailed his career between 2017 and 2020.

Rosa has never been the most athletic, physically imposing fighter, but seeing Bryce Mitchell and Manny Bermudez manhandle him since his return does ask the question of how much the long layoff, injuries, and surgeries have taken away from Charles Rosa’s ability to perform to his full potential.

Bryce Mitchell is a good example of why focusing full time on fighting is very important. We’ve seen him looking flat, slow, sloppy, and tired after just 5 minutes in his performances against Bobby Moffett and Tyler Diamond, to then looking like the Deep South Demian Maia against Charles Rosa.

Mitchell transformed into an excellent fighter in a very short space of time because he earned a $50,000 bonus in his fight against Bobby Moffett, which then enabled him to quit his job in construction and focus full time on MMA.

If you go and watch Bryce Mitchell against Charles Rosa and compare that to his performance against Bobby Moffett, it’s literally like looking at a different human being.

This is relevant to the context of the fight between Kevin Aguilar and Charles Rosa because Rosa still works a full-time job as a Chef, which could explain why he appears to be struggling lately. I understand that Mitchell is a strong, physically imposing grappler, but Manny Bermudez doesn’t have that physically imposing aspect to his grappling and yet he was able to stack Charles Rosa from top position. Bryce Mitchell is good, but I’m not sure if he’s that good. The way that Bermudez and Mitchell were able to control Rosa from top position is a big red flag.

Charles Rosa is a grappler, and physicality is very important as a grappler because you need to be able to take guys down and hold them down. You can have the best technique in the world, but if average grapplers are able to power out of bad positions you put them in, it really doesn’t matter how good your technique is. These fighters are not competing in BJJ tournaments; they’re competing in Cage Fights, and based on Rosa’s past two performances, it looks like he’s lost a lot of athleticism and physicality during his three-year layoff.

This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup where Aguilar should have an advantage if it stays standing and a Rosa should have the advantage on the ground.

Aguilar is difficult to take down, having defended 86% of takedown attempts in his 4 fights in the UFC. His takedown defense is definitely not bulletproof, but strong wrestlers like Dan Ige and Enrique Barzola have struggled to get him to the ground.

My biggest criticism of Aguilar and the biggest risk factor to this bet is that he is weak off his back and very accepting of being on the bottom. If you do manage to get him down, he’s quite easy to control. Having said that, he did hit a reversal on Dan Ige and also looked quite strong from top position.

Charles Rosa also looks to be weak on the bottom, so Aguilar being weak on the bottom isn’t as much of a red flag for me as it usually would be. This is because I think Aguilar can have just as much success from top position as Rosa can. I also question whether Rosa has the physicality to take Aguilar down and hold him down at this stage in his career because I feel that Rosa might be on a steep decline.

If the fight stays standing, Aguilar should have the edge. Rosa has an awkward, Karate based style of striking that can give some guys problems due to the unorthodox nature of his attacks, but Aguilar’s high volume, traditional Boxing style is well suited to punishing Rosa for his poor striking defense. Rosa throws a lot of kicks off-balance, as well as sloppy, looping hooks that leave him wide open to counters. Rosa also fights with his hands low and doesn’t see the shots coming. Aguilar doesn’t give his opponent any freebies. When they land, he’s always looking to counter, and the best counter to a sloppy kick is a punch in the face. Aguilar should be able to time Rosa’s range-finding body, and leg kicks with hard stiff jabs and straight punches that snap the head back of Rosa and inflict significant damage.

Aguilar is laser-focused in the pocket. He should be able to punish Rosa when he comes in with his goofy kicks.

I think Kevin Aguilar is a decent bet in this fight because he’s tough as nails, difficult to take down, and he lands a high volume of strikes per round. If the best version we’ve ever seen of Rosa shows up, I feel Aguilar still has enough to beat that guy, but based on recent performances I have a feeling that Rosa is on a pretty steep decline and under those circumstances I could see this being a comfortable night for Aguilar.

Don’t forget to do your own research before tailing this bet, and if you have any questions about this bet, please don’t hesitate to hit me up in the VIP Chat Room.

Reasons for betting on Kevin Aguilar

  • Kevin Aguilar has defended 86% of takedowns across his 4 fights in the UFC.
  • Kevin Aguilar has good initial takedown defense.
  • Kevin Aguilar is quite strong from top position and can inflict a decent amount of damage with ground and pound.
  • Charles Rosa appears to lack physicality on the ground.
  • Strong grapplers like Dan Ige and Enrique Barzola struggled to take Aguilar down and hold him down.
  • Charles Rosa appears to be on a steep decline after a 3 year layoff.
  • Kevin Aguilar has great cardio. He never slows down and has competed in several 25 minute Featherweight title fights in LFA.
  • Charles Rosa has bad striking defense and fights with his hands low.
  • Charles Rosa throws a lot of slow range finding kicks off balance. Aguilar should be able to counter these.
  • Kevin Aguilar is laser focused in the pocket. He should be able to make Rosa pay for his sloppy attacks.
  • Kevin Aguilar throws a high volume of strikes per round. It’s tough to outwork him standing.

Risk Factors with betting on Kevin Aguilar

  • Kevin Aguilar has a flat footed Boxing style and Rosa spams a high volume of leg kicks and body kicks.
  • Charles Rosa has a tricky, unorthdox style of fighting.
  • Kevin Aguilar is very weak off his back.
  • Kevin Aguilar has been rocked bad in his last two fights.
  • Both guys are taking this fight on short notice.
  • Charles Rosa is a skilled grappler with nice, deep, double leg takedown entries.

My Betting Tip

Kevin Aguilar to win

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.59
Moneyline = -169
Fractional = 59/100

63%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Kevin Aguilar has a 63% chance of beating Charles Rosa based on their current odds.

70%

Our Probability

I believe that Kevin Aguilar has a 70% chance of beating Charles Rosa based on my extensive research and analysis.

Cynthia Calvillo vs Jessica Eye Betting Tip and Prediction

With both Jessica Eye and Cynthia Calvillo floating around even money odds, you only need to lean slightly towards either girl to find a good value bet. My rationale for betting Cynthia Calvillo in this fight is quite simple…

Jessica Eye will have a moderate advantage if this fight stays standing, whereas Cynthia Calvillo will have an enormous advantage on the ground. Calvillo should be somewhat competitive with Eye when it comes to striking, but on the ground, Calvillo should completely dominate.

Both these girls struggle to put their stamp on rounds with their striking because they both lack the power in their hands to hurt their opponents. The one thing that can differentiate these girls is grappling, and Calvillo’s grappling is on another level. She is significantly better than Eye on the ground. Calvillo can use this advantage to put dominant rounds in the bank. This gives Calvillo a huge edge over someone like Eye, who historically has struggled to leave an impression on judges. This is one of the reasons why Eye has fought to so many split decisions.

We also have to factor in the probabilities of either girl winning by finish. It’s extremely unlikely that Jessica Eye will be able to knock out or submit Calvillo, whereas it is possible that Calvillo could submit Eye.

For these reasons, I believe it’s more than fair to cap Cynthia Calvillo at 60% in this matchup, giving us a nice 8% margin over her current odds. I recommend checking out the Livestream research session for this fight for a more comprehensive breakdown of the reasons why I feel Calvillo is a solid bet at the current odds.

If this fight stays standing, there are two ways that this could go. If Jessica Eye shows up and performs like she did against Jessica Rose-Clark, Kalindra Faria, or Viviane Araujo, this fight is likely to be very close and very competitive. If she shows up and performs like she did against Katlyn Chookagian, this is likely to be difficult for Calvillo in striking range because Eye did a great job of cutting the cage off, pressuring Chookagian, and throwing a high volume of strikes.

Calvillo has decent footwork, and she’s tough, but she doesn’t have any power in her hands, and therefore it will be unlikely that she is going to be able to back Eye up when Eye is coming forward.

There was a point in time where Cynthia Calvillo had a super high-level ground game, but lacked the wrestling to get the fight to the ground. That appeared to change in her last fight against Marina Rodriguez, where she shot excellent, deep double leg takedowns and converted them into trip takedowns when Rodriguez stuffed the initial entry.

Marina Rodriguez is a big, strong, physically imposing fighter, so if Calvillo is able to take her down, there’s a good chance she can take Eye down too. Eye’s takedown defense isn’t great, having only defended 59% of takedown attempts in the UFC.

If Calvillo takes this fight to the ground, she should completely dominate. She is lightyears ahead of Eye when it comes to grappling.

It’s also worth noting that Jessica Eye throws a lot of lazy kicks, and Calvillo does a pretty good job of catching kicks and turning them into takedowns.

Calvillo’s apparent improvements to her wrestling could be because she has moved her training from Team Alpha Male to American Kickboxing Academy. Daniel Cormier even mentioned when commentating last week’s event that Calvillo had been working on her wrestling a lot and was looking great in training.

In contrast, Jessica Eye was kicked out of her longtime gym at Strongstyle MMA in Cleveland. She has since moved to Las Vegas to train at Xtreme Couture. Xtreme Couture is a gym that is notorious for seeing fighters decline when they move to train there.

In terms of their training, Eye and Calvillo certainly seem to be on opposite trajectories where Calvillo appears to have made a good move for her career and is improving, while Eye may have taken a step backward.

I feel like this will be a competitive fight if it stays standing, but on the ground, Calvillo will dominate. That’s why I lean towards her here and see a decent amount of value in her current odds at around even money.

Reasons for betting on Cynthia Calvillo

  • Cynthia Calvillo has a significant advantage over Jessica Eye when it comes to grappling.
  • Cynthia Calvillo has a super high level ground game. She’s a nightmare on the ground.
  • Jessica Eye has bad takedown defense and she’s weak off her back.
  • Cynthia Calvillo appears to be making big improvements to her wrestling now that she is training full time at AKA.
  • Jessica Eye struggles to put her stamp on rounds. This is why she is always involved in close decisions.
  • Cynthia Calvillo can use her grappling to put her stamp on rounds and put dominant rounds in the bank.
  • Calvillo is very dangerous on the ground. There’s a reasonably good chance she submits Jessica Eye.
  • Jessica Eye throws a lot of lazy kicks. Calvillo does a good job of catching kicks and turning them into takedowns.
  • Cynthia Calvillo has decent footwork and good striking defense.
  • Jessica Eye has moved from her hometown training camp at Strongstyle MMA to train full time at Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas. This is not a good gym. Fighters often decline when they move to train at Strongstyle.
  • Jessica Eye has poor striking defense and low accuracy with her punches.

Risk Factors with betting on Cynthia Calvillo

  • In terms of the tale of the tape, both girls should be around about the same size but this will be Cynthia Calvillo’s first fight at Flyweight since moving up from Strawweight, while Eye has previously fought at Bantamweight. It’s possible that Eye’s physicality will be too much for Calvillo to handle, although it is worth noting that Eye hasn’t looked that physically imposing in her past fights.
  • If this fight stays standing, Calvillo will probably lose.
  • Jessica Eye fights at a high pace. She will force Calvillo to work.
  • Cynthia Calvillo is stepping up to take this fight on short notice, but so is Jessica Eye and everybody else on this card!

My Betting Tip

Cynthia Calvillo to win

Recommended Stake

2 Units

[2% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.91
Moneyline = -110
Fractional = 91/100

52%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Cynthia Calvillo has a 52% chance of beating Jessica Eye based on their current odds.

60%

Our Probability

I believe that Cynthia Calvillo has a 60% chance of beating Jessica Eye based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.