UFC Fight Night 117 is one of the best cards for betting this year. There are so many good opportunities to make money that I don’t even know where to begin with my fight analysis and research.
Every year we get 1 or 2 events like this where the bookies get complacent and cap a card completely wrong. I am guessing that the switch from the event being on a Saturday night to a Friday night has put extra pressure on the bookies to get their odds out early.
The full odds for a UFC event are usually released on the Tuesday or Wednesday night before an event, but the odds for UFC Fight Night 117 were released on Monday night instead. This means that the bookies have had one less day to research fights and set their odds. I think this tight timescale has significantly affected the accuracy of the odds because I see a lot of opportunities to make money on UFC Fight Night 117. Bellator also have a big event taking place this weekend, which would have made it even harder for the oddsmakers to set the odds on all the fights taking place accurately.
We haven’t had any events so far this year which has been amazing for betting, but I do believe that this is our golden opportunity to bank a big profit. This is one of those rare events where we need to capitalize on the oddsmakers complacency by making as much money as possible.
I can never be 100% sure that I’ll have a lot of bets for a particular event until I finish all my research, but right now based on what I have seen, I am very optimistic that we should have between 4 – 6 betting tips for this weekend.
UFC Fight Night 117 is an excellent opportunity to make money, and to take advantage of that we need to switch up the way we do things to maximise the amount of money we can make. Instead of spending time writing fight analysis and breakdowns, I plan to prioritize researching fights and posting betting tips so that we can lock in our bets before the odds decline. I expect the odds to significantly decline on many of the fighters we want to bet this weekend, so it’s super important that we act as fast as possible. It takes me about 3 to 4 days to fully research a fight card, so right now it’s imperative that I focus all my time on studying fight footage.
My plan for this week is to concentrate on researching fights and sharing my betting tips with you guys straight away. I will then write my fight analysis and breakdowns later on in the week once I have finished researching all the fights.
I hope you are ok with this change. Please don’t hesitate to hit me up in the VIP Chat Room if you’d like to discuss any of these bets in more detail.
Please keep checking this article regularly for updates because I expect to add more bets as we get closer to the time of the event.
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DO NOT PLACE BETS ON ALL OF OUR PICKS
In the table above we give our picks and predictions for every fight. This is to help you put together teams in Fantasy MMA or enter Pick’em competitions. Please do not bet on all of these picks. You should only bet on our official VIP Betting Tips that you can find further down this page.
These picks and predictions are based on which fighters we perceive to have the best betting value. This doesn’t necessarily mean we think the fighter we pick has any notable advantage over their opponent.
The results of these picks are not tracked. We share them with the community because some members use them to enter Fantasy MMA and Pick’em competitions.
Dong Hyun Kim vs Takanori Gomi Betting Tip and Prediction
I initially posted this betting tip on Tuesday when the odds were around 1.36 | -278 | 9/25 on Dong Hyun Kim to win. Since then the odds on Kim have crashed to anywhere between 1.25 | -400 | 1/4 and 1.28 | -357 | 7/25 depending on which bookie you use. We beat the line movement in a big way on this fight, and I will continue to try and predict line movement in order to try and maximise the profitability of our bets.
Throughout this week we have had quite a few new members join us, so I also want to apologize to them if you were not able to bet Kim at good odds. I promise you that in future I will continue to work hard to beat the line movement and if you stick with us, it will pay off for you in the long run. In a few weeks time, I plan to have a huge bet on UFC 216 and I expect the odds to crash shortly after I release it. Please keep an eye on your emails in the next 4-5 days because I plan to release this betting tip very soon. When you receive it, you should lock in your bet as soon as possible because I expect the odds to crash very quickly.
Dong Hyun Kim should win this fight easily because Takanori Gomi is now 39 years old and showing all the signs of a fighter who doesn’t want to fight anymore. If you go back and watch any of his recent fights, you’ll see that he gets rocked very easily and he also quits at the slightest bit of adversity. Another visual clue that suggests that Gomi has come to the end of his career is the fact that he often turns his back on his opponent’s to avoid taking damage. This is a cardinal sin in combat sports. When fighter’s start to show this kind of submissive behavior, they should retire. Tim Kennedy did it for the first time when he fought Kelvin Gastelum, and it is often a clear visual indicator that it’s time for a fighter to call it a day. Gomi has done this in a few of his recent fights, and I can’t help but feel that this will probably be the last time we see him compete in the Octagon.
Dong Hyun Kim is nothing special, but he is young, well-rounded, he hits hard and he has an iron chin. At this point in Gomi’s career, those qualities should be more than enough to secure a win for Kim.
Reasons for betting on Dong Hyun Kim to win...
Risk factors with betting on Dong Hyun Kim to win...
Our Betting Tip
Dong Hyun Kim to win
[4% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.36
Moneyline = -278
Fractional = 9/25
The bookies believe that Dong Hyun Kim has a 74% chance of beating Takanori Gomi based on their current odds.
We believe that Dong Hyun Kim has an 80% chance of beating Takanori Gomi based on our extensive research and analysis.
Luke Jumeau vs Shinsho Anzai Betting Tip and Prediction
I had planned on betting on Luke Jumeau before the odds were released for UFC Fight Night 117, but then after I watched all his recent fights and then studied Anzai’s recent fights, I eventually decided to pass.
Since then I have been thinking about this fight all week because I can’t stop thinking about how good Jumeau is. The only concern I had with betting on him initially was that he spends too much time defending takedowns against the cage. His actual takedown defense is good because he has great balance and a strong core, but I hate it when fighters spend too much time with their back against the cage and show no urgency to get out of bad positions.
Today, with a fresh mind I decided to revisit this fight and research it for a second time. I do this occasionally, and most of the time it reaffirms my initial thoughts, but sometimes I discover new things that I missed the first time around.
On this occasion, I overlooked the fact that Jumeau only spends a lot of time defending takedowns against the cage when his opponents have double underhooks or are working for a double leg takedown. When his opponent’s go for single legs, he’s very good at stuffing the takedown and circling away from the cage. After rewatching all of Anzai’s fights, I noticed that the majority of Anzai’s takedowns are based on the single leg. You very rarely see him drive through on a double leg and he rarely works his opponent’s against the cage.
Anzai hasn’t competed in over 2 years and he has shown poor cardio in his previous UFC matchups. I believe Jumeau will use his superior technique, fight IQ and cardio to cruise to an easy win. I believe the most likely outcome in this fight is Jumeau winning by KO.
Reasons for betting on Luke Jumeau to win...
Risk factors with betting on Luke Jumeau to win...
Our Betting Tip
Luke Jumeau to win
[4% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.42
Moneyline = -238
Fractional = 21/50
The bookies believe that Luke Jumeau has a 70% chance of beating Shinsho Anzai based on their current odds.
We believe that Luke Jumeau has an 80% chance of beating Shinsho Anzai based on our extensive research and analysis.