UFC Fight Night – Brunson vs Shahbazyan Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

Fight Island is now over, so we can now move back to the UFC Apex Center in Las Vegas, where we can hopefully look forward to a much higher quality of Refereeing and Judges.

As we kick off a brand new month for betting on MMA, I recapped our performance on both prefight betting and Live Betting in one of today’s Livestreams. I talk about how we performed at the very beginning of the video. I recommend checking it out:

This weekend’s Fight Night card headlined by Derek Brunson and Edmen Shahbazyan looks potentially great for prefight betting. Right now, Edmen Shahbazyan, Jennifer Maia, Vicente Luque, Bobby Green, Gerald Meerschaert, Ray Borg, and Timur Valiev all look like they could be good bets.

I want to try and research all of these fights as quickly as possible before the odds could start to decline. I am a really slow writer, which means it takes me 3-4 hours per breakdown. This time could be better spent on researching those fights in case the odds start to get worse. As soon as I have finished researching those fights, I will come back and add written breakdowns for any bets that we have. If you have any questions about the reasoning behind these bets, please check out the live streams below.

Fight Betting Tip Who I think will win Who I think is the better bet
Derek Brunson vs Edmen Shahbazyan No bet Shahbazyan Shahbazyan
Jennifer Maia vs Joanne Calderwood 1 unit on Jennifer Maia to win at odds of 2.40 | +140 | 7/5 Maia Maia
Randy Brown vs Vicente Luque No bet Luque Luque
Bobby Green vs Lando Vannata 2 units on Lando Vannata to win at odds of 1.69 | -145 | 69/100 Vannata Vannata
Kevin Holland vs Trevin Giles No bet Holland Giles
Frankie Saenz vs Jonathan Martinez No bet Martinez Martinez
Ed Herman vs Gerald Meerschaert No bet Meerschaert Meerschaert
Nathan Maness vs Johnny Munoz No bet Maness Maness
Jamall Emmers vs Vincent Cachero No bet Emmers Cachero
Chris Gutierrez vs Cody Durden No bet Gutierrez Gutierrez

Jennifer Maia vs Joanne Calderwood Betting Tip and Prediction

I don’t know who will win this fight between Jennifer Maia and Joanne Calderwood because both fighters have significant weaknesses that the other is well equipped to exploit. This is why it doesn’t make sense for Maia to be a moderately sized underdog. The odds on this fight should be much closer to evens, which is why we’re getting a good margin of value on Maia at odds of around 2.40 | +140 | 7/5. Even better is that I know most of you caught Maia during the fight research Livestream when her odds were around 2.60 | +160 | 8/5. At those odds, she is tremendous value. I recommend checking out my Livestream on this fight to find out the reasons why:

Both Maia and Calderwood have a base in Muay Thai, but their styles of striking are very different. Calderwood likes to use her length to chip away at her opponent with leg kicks and teeps from a range where her opponents cannot counter. Maia, on the other hand, likes to use head movement to get inside and land winging hooks.

Maia is not a particularly good kicker, and she has poor defense against kickers, but Calderwood is not a good Boxer and has poor striking defense when defending against punches. Both of these girls are likely to have some success with striking because Calderwood should be able to blast Maia with kicks, and Maia should be able to light Calderwood up with superior Boxing combinations.

In a Kicker vs Boxer stylistic matchup, as a general rule, it’s best to favor the Boxer because it’s easier to win rounds with effective Boxing than effective Kicking. This is because Maia is more likely to inflict visible damage on Calderwood with her power punches than the range-finding kicks that Calderwood likes to throw. Generally speaking, cuts, swelling, and bloody noses score higher than bruised legs and body shots. This isn’t always going to be the case, but staying on the right side of this trend will make you a lot more money than it will cost you.

In recent years Calderwood has incorporated wrestling into her style of fighting in an effort to put her stamp on rounds with late takedowns. This could be a big mistake against Maia because Maia is a much higher level on the ground. Calderwood is one of these fighters who tries to steal rounds with takedowns but she doesn’t have the ground game to back it up. Calderwood is still an ultra low-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Blue Belt, whereas Maia is a Black Belt out of the Chute Boxe Academy in Brazil. Calderwood is also much weaker off her back than Maia. Just a few weeks ago, we saw Molly McCann get herself into trouble when she tried to take down a superior grappler in Taila Santos. There’s a good chance that Calderwood will find herself in a similar position if she tries to take Maia down.

If this fight stays standing, I do think it’ll be razor close. I’d cap it at 50/50. If the fight goes to the ground, Maia should have quite a big advantage, although she rarely goes for takedowns, so it’s unlikely to hit the ground unless Calderwood initiates grappling exchanges.

This fight should be real close, I don’t lean towards either girl, but since I’m capping this fight 50 / 50, I’ll take Maia as a moderate underdog all day long. Hopefully, she comes through for us.

Reasons for betting on Jennifer Maia

  • Joanna Calderwood has bad striking defense. She’s very susceptible to Boxing combinations.
  • Jennifer Maia is a much better Boxer than Calderwood.
  • Joanne Calderwood doesn’t wear damage well. She cuts very easily. This doesn’t look good in the eyes of the judges.
  • Jennifer Maia has excellent takedown defense.
  • Jennifer Maia is a much higher level than Calderwood on the ground.
  • Joanne Calderwood is very weak off her back. If Maia can find a way to get into top position, she should be able to rack up a lot of top control.
  • Maia is very consistent and very aggressive. She always shows up and fights for your money.
  • Calderwood always starts well but gradually gets sucked into more and more exchanges as the fight wears on. If she gets into a Boxing match with Maia, she’s going to eat a lot of big shots.
  • Jennifer Maia does a great job of using head movement to bob and weave her way inside. You can see the influence of Wanderlai Silva in her fighting style. The Chute Boxe pedigree is obvious.
  • Jennifer Maia has excellent cardio.
  • Jennifer Maia is very tough and she pushes a high pace.
  • Maia was originally supposed to be fighting Viviane Araujo, which means Calderwood is stepping up to take this fight on short notice.

Risk Factors with betting on Jennifer Maia

  • Calderwood fights very long.
  • Calderwood has excellent kicks.
  • Sometimes Maia struggles to get inside on opponents who fight long.
  • Maia is very susceptible to leg kicks, she doesn’t bother checking them. Classic Chute Boxe style.
  • Calderwood is making big improvements from fight to fight and starting to fight more tactically.
  • Calderwood is very tough and she has great cardio.
  • Jennifer Maia rarely uses her grappling.

My Betting Tip

Jennifer Maia to win

Recommended Stake

1 Unit

[2% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 2.40
Moneyline = +140
Fractional = 7/5

42%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Jennifer Maia has a 42% chance of beating Joanne Calderwood based on their current odds.

50%

Our Probability

I believe that Jennifer Maia has a 50% chance of beating Joanne Calderwood based on my extensive research and analysis.

Bobby Green vs Lando Vannata Betting Tip and Prediction

Whenever I begin to research an MMA event, I prioritize my research and start with the fights where I feel there may be the best betting opportunities. Bobby Green vs Lando Vannata was one of the first fights that I researched this week because I felt Green could be a great bet at underdog odds.

When I research a fight, I will often see things that will make me pass on a fighter that I was initially contemplating a bet on. Rarely do I heavily lean towards a fighter going into research and then end up betting their opponent.

I never thought that I would be betting Lando Vannata to beat Bobby Green this week, but after studying their past fights, there’s no way I can get away from betting on Vannata. Take a look at the Livestream for this fight to get a detailed breakdown on the reasons why I feel Vannata is a great bet:

Bobby Green and Lando Vannata previously fought each other back in 2017, where the matchup ended a draw. The only thing that stopped Vannata from winning a comfortable 30-27 decision was a point deduction due to an illegal knee in round 1 and a strong end to the 3rd round for Green. Since then, Vannata has made big improvements to his fight IQ and pacing, while Green still shows up and performs the same in every fight. He has not evolved.

Bobby Green is the perfect stylistic matchup for Vannata because he likes to stand right in front of his opponent with his hands down low and relies on head movement to slip punches. This plays right into the strengths of Vannata, who utilizes great footwork to cover distance and land fast power strikes.

This is an easy fight for Lando Vannata, and I could actually see him winning much more comfortably than the first fight because Vannata is improving from fight to fight, while Green seems to be regressing.

The only risk here is that Vannata has been open about his battles with anxiety and mental health and is therefore a little inconsistent. Having said that, Vannata is tough as nails, and he always shows up and fights for your money. He should win this.

Reasons for betting on Lando Vannata

  • Lando Vannata has made big improvements to his fight IQ and pacing.
  • Lando Vannata dominated Bobby Green when they last fought back in 2017. Since then Vannata has improved, while Green is still the exact same fighter.
  • Bobby Green fights with his hands low and tries to use head movement to slip punches. Vannata is very fast and covers distance quickly to land big power shots on him.
  • Jennifer Maia has excellent takedown defense.
  • Lando Vannata outstruck Bobby Green by a wide margin in their first fight.
  • Lando Vannata is still only 28 years old and making big improvements from fight to fight.
  • Bobby Green got wobbled several times in their first fight.
  • Bobby Green is very one dimensional. He performs the same everytime.
  • Lando Vannata is extremely tough. He also has a great chin.
  • Lando Vannata throws a high volume of strikes per round and he’s very fast.
  • Bobby Green has bad fight IQ.
  • Bobby Green often struggles to put his stamp on rounds. It’s the reason why he loses so many decisions.

Risk Factors with betting on Lando Vannata

  • Bobby Green is extremely tough.
  • Bobby Green has an excellent gas tank.
  • Lando Vannata has battled with anxiety and mental health. This has resulted in him putting in some inconsistent performances.
  • Lando Vannata does tend to slow down as the fight progresses although his recent performances show that he’s starting to pace himself much better.
  • Lando Vannata fights with his hands low and is at times wreckless.
  • Bobby Green has already spent 15 minutes in the Octagon with Vannata so he’ll know what to expect. On the flipside, Vannata has also spent 15 minutes in the Octagon with Green so he knows what to expect too.

My Betting Tip

Lando Vannata to win

Recommended Stake

2 Units

[2% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.69
Moneyline = -145
Fractional = 69/100

59%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Lando Vannata has a 59% chance of beating Bobby Green based on their current odds.

65%

Our Probability

I believe that Lando Vannata has a 65% chance of beating Bobby Green based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.