UFC Fight Night – Hooker vs Poirier Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

Last week was our biggest winning week in Live Betting since December 2018, as we banked a solid profit of almost 8 units! Hopefully we can follow it up with another big win this weekend.

I just want to remind everyone that this weekend’s event does not look good for Live Betting. To reflect this I have significantly reduced the cost of Live Betting to just $30!

When an event looks bad on paper for Live Betting it does not mean that we can’t make money on it. It just means that there are a lot of stylistic matchups on the card which will be difficult to Livebet. This means we may get less opportunities to lock in bets than usual. This stems from Saturday’s card only having 10 fights on it instead of the usual 12. It also does not help that the majority of this week’s matchups feature a combination of either heavy favorites, debutants or fighters stepping up on short notice. This is usually a perfect storm for a card full of one sided fights or quick finishes and as we know these kinds of fights are the worst type for Live Betting. I’m just hoping that we’ll get 1 or 2 rock solid positions to grind out a clean profit. We still have 10 fights to dig for strong positions, so I will be as patient, focused and motivated to bank a profit as I always am.

Since we didn’t have any prefight bets last week, I decided to spend some time in the first livestream of the week talking about trends and how it’s dangerous to bet against them or doubt them until you get absolute confirmation that a trend has ended. Over the last 7 years there is a clear uptrend on my prefight betting results, live betting results and more recently prop betting results. We discuss what this means from a long term perspective and how we can increase our profits over the longterm with the development of The Lab. I recommend that you take a listen:

Fight Betting Tip Who I think will win Who I think is the better bet
Dan Hooker vs Dustin Poirier 1 unit on Dan Hooker at odds of 2.80 | +180 | 9/5 Poirier Hooker
Mickey Gall vs Mike Perry No bet Perry Perry
Brendan Allen vs Kyle Daukaus No bet Allen Daukaus
Gian Villante vs Maurice Greene No bet Greene Villante
Julian Erosa vs Sean Woodson No bet Woodson Erosa
Khama Worthy vs Luis Pena No bet Pena Worthy
Phillipe Lins vs Tanner Boser No bet Boser Boser
Jason Witt vs Takashi Sato No bet Sato Sato
Jordan Griffin vs Youssef Zalal No bet Griffin Griffin
Jinh Yu Frey vs Kay Hansen No bet Hansen Hansen

Dan Hooker vs Dustin Poirier Betting Tip and Prediction

Before researching this fight, the odds felt very off to me. I couldn’t understand why Poirier was such a big favorite over someone as dangerous as Dan Hooker.

I’ll often get initial feelings like this before I go into researching fights, and then the things we spot in research dispels these feelings. We end up discovering what is true because the footage doesn’t lie, and the odds turn out to be accurate. That didn’t happen here. Win or lose, I can say with absolute certainty that the odds are off on this fight. I’m not saying Hooker will win, but I am definitely saying that there’s no way Poirier should be such a big favorite.

We took a 4.5 hour deep dive into this fight. If your interested in betting this matchup, I highly recommend that you give it a watch. Hooker’s a high-risk bet, but there’s definite value here:

It wasn’t that long ago that Poirier was considered by many fans within the MMA community to have a “glass jaw.” It was around about the time when we saw Akira Corassani make him do the Stanky leg, Conor McGregor KO’d him with a glancing shot and Michael Johnson deathshotted him in under 2 minutes:

 

Dustin Poirier hasn’t lost by KO since he was knocked out by Michael Johnson 3 years ago, but remember that fights are fought in a cage, they are not fought on paper. Just because the results of fights do not reflect a fighter’s weaknesses, it does not mean that the weaknesses have gone away.

Since being knocked out by Michael Johnson, we’ve seen Poirier wobbled by Jim Miller and almost stopped with leg kicks. Wobbled off jabs against Eddie Alvarez and Justin Gaethje and also wobbled a couple of times against Max Holloway, who isn’t known for possessing KO power. Just before getting knocked out by Michael Johnson, we saw Poirier get outboxed by Joe Duffy and have his nose crushed. Wobbled by Akira Corassani and knocked out by Conor McGregor.

There’s no shame in getting hurt bad by any of those guys, but it’s a recurring theme with Poirier that he gets rocked, dropped, wobbled or knocked out in most of his fights. Getting hurt badly in fights has become a trend for Poirier. This is a significant detail to pay attention to because Hooker is very dangerous, and when he has his opponents hurt, he goes for the kill; he doesn’t let them off the hook. Based on how frequently Poirier gets dinged badly, it’s very likely that Hooker will catch him at some point in this 25-minute fight, and from there, the probabilities are very high that Hooker finishes the job.

Poirier is quite strange in that he doesn’t have bad cardio, but he does become much less technical from the second round onward. If you take a look at him in round 1, he’s light on his feet, sharp and uses a lot of footwork, but this tends to go out the window past round 1, when he becomes much more flat-footed. This makes it much easier to land on him because he just doesn’t see the shots coming in the same way that he does early in a fight. It’s not that Poirier gasses, but he becomes a lot less effective as each round ticks by.

Poirier is also susceptible to two of the things that Hooker does very well. Poirier finds it difficult to deal with jabs and difficult to deal with leg kicks. These are two of Hooker’s most dangerous weapons. I don’t believe Poirier can take the kind of damage that we saw Hooker inflict on Felder because Felder’s chin and durability is pretty legendary. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Felder rocked.

If this fight goes to the ground, Poirier is also likely to be in trouble. There’s no doubt that Poirier is a more technically skilled grappler than Hooker, but he looks flat in grappling exchanges past the 1st round. Go take a look at round 2 of the Eddie Alvarez rematch to see what I’m talking about. Eddie has never been a strong wrestler, he’s never had a heavy top game, and yet he handles Poirier on the ground.

Now that we’ve spoken about Poirier’s weaknesses, we have to discuss Hooker’s weaknesses too…

Hooker’s biggest strength is also his biggest weakness in that he relies on his length to attack his opponents and also to defend himself. He uses a similar style of striking defense to what we saw from Shane Burgos last weekend. Instead of keeping his hands up high to block his opponent’s punches, Hooker instead prefers to use footwork and movement to stay just outside of a range where is opponent can land. Hooker also likes to circle away from his opponents, which means when they do land, he’s not absorbing the shot with full impact.

This style of striking defense and approach to managing range is a key difference between the way Burgos uses head movement and footwork to defend against strikes and the way Hooker does it.

Burgos is constantly moving forward and looking to get inside while using head movement to slip shots. This is the reason why he gets knocked out, dropped, and wobbled so much. When his opponents time him and land a big shot, he’s almost always moving towards it, which significantly increases the impact. Hooker is different in that he likes to use his length to chip away at his opponents from a range where they can’t counter. This means that you rarely see Hooker getting caught as he walks onto shots. This is perhaps the reason why we see Burgos get rocked, dropped, wobbled or knocked out in pretty much all of his fights and why Hooker has never been KO’d in his entire 28 fight career.

That last point is ultimately on the most basic of levels why I think there’s a tremendous amount of value in Hooker here. We know that both Poirier and Hooker are very dangerous. They both have major power, and they both have a killer instinct. If they hurt you, it’s usually over. Fights like that often come down to toughness and durability, and based on past performances; it is 1000% undeniable that Hooker is the more durable fighter. We’ve seen him take tons of damage in his fights against Felder and Barboza and, for the most part, fight through it. He’s also never been KO’d in his entire 28 fight career.

Now compare that to Dustin Poirier, who has been knocked out, wobbled, dropped or dinged badly in around 30% of his career fights. He’s also been knocked out multiple times. I get that Poirier has competed against a higher level of opponent, but it’s not just the high-level guys that have been causing him a problem. Guys like Corassani, Duffy, and Miller have also been able to hurt him real bad and inflict major damage.

We also can’t ignore the fact that Dustin Poirier has been around forever. He’s still only 31 years old, but he came into the UFC when he was just 21 years old. It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that his chin might not be in the best shape after all the wars he has been in over the last 10 years.

Dustin Poirier is an amazing fighter, and this is Dan Hooker’s toughest test of his career, but Hooker’s tough as nails and the chances of him landing at least one big shot on Poirier in 25 minutes is very, very high. When that happens, it’s probably going to be enough for Hooker to seal the deal.

This is a speculative, high-risk bet, and I wouldn’t recommend tailing it if you struggle mentally to deal with losing, but win or lose there’s value here.

Reasons for betting on Dan Hooker

  • Dan Hooker has never been knocked out in his entire 28 fight career which is significant because I think it’s unlikely Poirier can win a decision here. Poirier slows down quite a lot as the fight goes on, rounds 4 and 5 are likely to be hell for him if he can’t finish Hooker early.
  • Dan Hooker can inflict major damage with his jab. Poirier is very susceptible to jabs. We’ve seen Alvarez, Gaethje and Holloway wobble him with jabs.
  • Dustin Poirier is very susceptible to leg kicks because he becomes quite flat footed from round 2 onwards. Jim Miller almost stopped him with leg kicks. Dan Hooker’s leg kicks are nasty.
  • Dan Hooker has a good enough gas tank to fight at a decent, consistent pace for 25 minutes.
  • Dan Hooker uses his length very well to stay just outside of his opponents range.
  • Dan Hooker is very disciplined at sticking to a gameplan. You’ll rarely see him panic under pressure or deviate from his strategy. When his opponents become frustrated by his length and try to fight their way inside, he always circles away and resets instead of panicking, planting his feet and looking to exchange. This makes it harder for Poirier to catch him with a power strike because Hooker is always moving away from power strikes and his length enables him to stay out of trouble.
  • Hooker will have a size advantage over Poirier.
  • Poirier has been knocked out, rocked, wobbled or dropped in almost 30% of his career fights.
  • Poirier’s grappling looks ineffective past round 2. He becomes very flat and lacks physicality on the ground.
  • The guys from City Kickboxing always show up with a gameplan specifically tailored for their opponent. Poirier has tons of weaknesses for them to build a gameplan around.
  • Dan Hooker is improving at a rapid rate. He always shows up with new skills that we’ve never seen from him before.
  • Dan Hooker has legit 1 shot KO power. He can KO you at anytime

Risk Factors with betting on Dan Hooker

  • Both guys are taking the fight on short notice.
  • Both guys are likely to have had disrupted training camps coming into this matchup.
  • Dan Hooker has a long flight over from New Zealand. The jet lag may effect his performance.
  • Dustin Poirier has excellent Boxing.
  • Dustin Poirier has legit 1 shot power in every strike.
  • Dan Hooker fights with his hands low. He is there to be hit.
  • Dustin Poirier trains at American Top Team and all the guys who have fought out of ATT in the last couple of months have looked great. Things look like business as usual for them.

My Betting Tip

Dan Hooker to win

Recommended Stake

1 Unit

[1% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 2.80
Moneyline = +180
Fractional = 9/5

36%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Dan Hooker has a 36% chance of beating Dustin Poirier based on their current odds.

45%

Our Probability

I believe that Dan Hooker has a 45% chance of beating Dustin Poirier based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.