We’re doing things slightly differently this week as we jump ahead to an event taking place in two weeks’ time to get a bet in on a fight that looks particularly good for betting. I don’t often do this, but I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw the odds on the fight between Edson Barboza and Makwan Amirkhani. It’s a great stylistic matchup for Barboza, and I believe he should be a much bigger favorite.
Just like last week, there are a couple of great potential bets coming up for this weekend, so I want to prioritize my time researching those fights, and then in a couple of days, I will come back and upload a breakdown video for our bet on Barboza.
Until then, I want to remind you that October is a huge month for betting on MMA. We have 10 events in total with 5 Bellator’s and 5 UFCs. Hopefully, we can make the most of these opportunities and bank a solid profit this month. As always, I will be Live Betting all of these events.
|Fight||Betting Tip||Who I think will win||Who I think is the better bet|
|Marlon Moraes vs Cory Sandhagen||2 units on Cory Sandhagen to win at odds of 1.77 | -130 | 77/100||Sandhagen||Sandhagen|
|Ben Rothwell vs Marcin Tybura||No bet||Rothwell||Rothwell|
|Edson Barboza vs Makwan Amirkhani||3 units on Edson Barboza to win at odds of 1.47 | -213 | 47/100||Barboza||Barboza|
|Stephanie Egger vs Tracy Cortez||No bet||Cortez||Egger|
|Llia Topuria vs Youssef Zalal||No bet||Topuria||Topuria|
|Alan Baudot vs Tom Aspinall||No bet||Baudot||Baudot|
|Al AlQaisi vs Tony Kelley||No bet||Kelley||Kelley|
|Chris Daukaus vs Rodrigo Nascimento||No bet||Nascimento||Daukaus|
|Giga Chikadze vs Omar Morales||No bet||Morales||Morales|
|Bruno Silva vs Tagir Ulanbekov||No bet||Ulanbekov||Silva|
|Dricu Du Plessis vs Markus Perez||No bet||Du Plessis||Du Plessis|
|Joaquim Buckley vs Impa Kasanganay||No bet||Kasanganay||Buckley|
|KB Bhullar vs Tom Breese||No bet||Breese||Breese|
Edson Barboza vs Makwan Amirkhani Betting Tip
My Betting Tip
Barboza to win
[3% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.47
Moneyline = -213
Fractional = 47/100
The bookies believe that Edson Barboza has a 68% chance of beating Makwan Amirkhani based on their current odds.
Cory Sandhagen vs Marlon Moraes Betting Tip
My Betting Tip
Sandhagen to win
[2% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.77
Moneyline = -130
Fractional = 77/100
The bookies believe that Cory Sandhagen has a 57% chance of beating Marlon Moraes based on their current odds.
Edson Barboza vs Makwan Amirkhani
I recommend betting Edson Barboza.
Ilia Topuria vs Youssef Zalal
It’s impossible to form a strong opinion on this fight because there’s not much footage available on Topuria, but from what I’ve seen it looks like this could be a tough matchup for Youssef Zalal. Topuria appears to be a strong wrestler with decent chain wrestling, good double leg entries and nasty chokes. Youssef Zalal has bad takedown defense and a low level ground game, which makes this a potentially great stylistic matchup for Topuria. Unfortunately because there’s not much footage available on Topuria we don’t know anything about his gas tank, so it’s dangerous to bet on him in this fight because Zalal has cardio for days.
This is a clear dog or pass matchup. There’s no way you can bet Zalal here at favorite odds because if Topuria shows up with good enough cardio to go 3 hard rounds he could put on a grappling clinic and dominate Zalal. Unfortunately because of a lack of footage we don’t know if Topuria has the gas tank to keep up with the frenetic pace Zalal is likely to set, so this one is an easy pass for me.
Cory Sandhagen vs Marlon Moraes
I recommend betting Cory Sandhagen.
Dricus Du Plessis vs Markus Perez
Dricus Du Plessis is a very tempting bet this weekend, but if I were to bet him it wouldn’t be based on what he does well, moreso on what Markus Perez does badly. Du Plessis and Perez are both pretty low level fighters, it’s just that Du Plessis looks less worse out of the two. Du Plessis is pretty average everywhere and just likes to chip away at his opponents with leg kicks. He doesn’t do much else but that is a lot more than what Perez brings to the table. Perez just likes to bounce around with lots of flim flam and spinning attacks that don’t have much end product.
The most likely outcome in this fight is for Du Plessis to chip away at Perez with leg kicks and outstrike him for 3 rounds. Du Plessis should win, but both guys are pretty bad and I wouldn’t feel great about betting a guy like Du Plessis that is this one dimensional. Markus Perez trains full time at American Top Team and Du Plessis is a very easy guy to gameplan for because he performs the same in every fight. It’s possible that Perez and his coaches put together a gameplan and strategy to neutralize Du Plessis’ leg kicks and that’s where this fight can get interesting.
Chris Daukaus vs Rodrigo Nascimento
Chris Daukaus is a very tempting bet this weekend because he hits very hard and he’s also very powerful. It always gets my spidey senses tingling when I see a big favorite in a Heavyweight fight because all Heavyweights carry legit 1 shot KO power. It only takes one clean hard shot to land in 15 minutes to score a knockout win and that’s why big underdogs in MMA always need to be considered as potential bets. Unfortunately there’s not enough recent footage on Nascimento to form a strong opinion on how this matchup is likely to play out and I have a rule that I don’t place bets unless I can explicitly describe a fighter’s path to victory. This hard rule prevents me from rolling the dice too much on super risky bets.
I honestly have no idea why Rodrigo Nascimento is a big favorite in this fight. Based on the limited footage available it doesn’t look like he has any major advantages over Daukaus. Problem is I can’t clearly describe to you how Daukaus is likely to win this fight. I have no idea what happens. This is a clear dog or pass fight. There’s no way I’d bet Nascimento here but at the same time it’s hard to feel confident in Daukaus because we don’t know much about Nascimento.
Stephanie Egger vs Tracy Cortez
This is a similar type of matchup to Topuria vs Zalal because Zalal and Cortez are two young, inexperienced fighters with low level grappling, but an abundance of energy to make up for it. We don’t know whether Topuria will be able to keep up with the pace that Zalal sets, but there are clues in Egger’s fight against Reina Miura at Rizin 17 that she may struggle to keep up with the frenetic pace that Cortez likes to push in all of her fights. From a technical point of view both Topuria and Egger should dominate Cortez and Zalal on the ground, but the question is for how long. Cortez fights at a very high pace and Egger was gassed pretty bad after round 1 against Miura. Maybe this is an anomaly and an off night for her, or maybe she has gas tank issues. Unfortunately there’s not enough footage available on Egger to come to a solid conclusion.
Cortez will have the advantage over Egger when it comes to striking but from a technical point of view, Egger should have a big advantage on the ground. The problem is that Egger is stepping up to fight on just 1 week’s notice and her cardio looked bad in her fight at Rizin 17. If she gasses after 1 round against Cortez, she’s likely to get overwhelmed with Cortez’s work rate and pressure. This is a clear dog or pass situation for me, there’s no way I’d bet Cortez at the current odds. At the same time I don’t feel comfortable betting Egger as a moderate underdog considering she’s taking the fight on short notice, has shown bad cardio in the past and she’s going up against a cardio machine in Cortez.