UFC Fight Night – Lewis vs Oleinik Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

It felt great to be back in Las Vegas for last week’s UFC event at the Apex Center. The standard of judging throughout the card was excellent. There were a couple of late stoppages from the referees, but that didn’t impact our ability to make money.

We had a great night in Live Betting with everyone earning a solid profit. I also gave out an unofficial bet on a line that can only be bet on certain betting websites. Those of us that hit that ended up having a Monster night.

I am super excited about what we can achieve in Live Betting over the next couple of months because all UFC events in August and September are scheduled to be held in Las Vegas. Vegas has some of the best judges in the world, which sets us up to make some big money.

Prefight betting was a bit flat with Jennifer Maia coming through for us, but Vannata let us down to put us at a small overall loss on prefight bets. Check out the beginning of the Livestream below on the Haqparast vs. Munoz fight to get a more in-depth breakdown of how I felt about each of those bets:

Fight Betting Tip Who I think will win Who I think is the better bet
Alexey Oleinik vs Derrick Lewis No bet Lewis Oleinik
Chris Weidman vs Omari Akhmedov No bet Weidman Weidman
Darren Stewart vs Maki Pitolo No bet Stewart Pitolo
Julija Stoliarenko vs Yana Kunitskaya No bet Kunitskaya Kunitskaya
Beneil Dariush vs Scott Holtzman Dariush Holtzman
Joaquin Buckley vs Kevin Holland No bet Holland Buckley
Laureano Staropoli vs Tim Means No bet Staropoli Staropoli
Alex Munoz vs Nasrat Haqparast 3 units on Nasrat Haqparast to win at odds of 1.43 | -233 | 43/100 Haqparast Haqparast
Andrew Sanchez vs Wellington Turman No bet Sanchez Sanchez
Peter Barrett vs Youssef Zalal No bet Zalal Barrett
Gavin Tucker vs Justin Jaynes No bet Tucker Tucker
Ali Al Qaisi vs Irwin Rivera No bet Rivera Rivera

Alex Munoz vs Nasrat Haqparast Betting Tip and Prediction

Alex Munhoz has a really tough UFC debut ahead of him this weekend against Nasrat Haqparast.

For a full breakdown of the reasons why I believe Haqparast is a solid bet, I recommend checking out the Livestream research session below:

Usually, in one of these breakdowns, I’d discuss the strengths and weaknesses of both fighters and cover off the risk factors for the guy I recommend betting, but there’s not that much to talk about here. All I can say is that Haqparast is significantly better than Munoz everywhere, and something improbable would have to happen in order for Haqparast to lose this.

If the fight stays standing, Haqparast should be able to use his superior technique, footwork and striking defense to pick Munoz apart. Munoz is very much a single shot striker and doesn’t mix things up much. He also doesn’t appear to have much power in his hands. Munoz just doesn’t seem that dangerous standing, which is backed up by the fact that he’s gone the distance in his last 3 fights against guys who are at a much lower level than Haqparast.

Munoz’s single-shot style of striking shouldn’t cause Haqparast too much of a problem, because Haqparast utilizes the high Boxing guard and sees shots coming from a mile away. Both these guys are also Southpaws, which favors the more experienced striker in Haqparast.

Munoz also doesn’t have the best offensive wrestling or grappling control. Haqparast has decent takedown defense and a decent level ground game, so I don’t see Munoz causing him a problem in that department either.

Another reason why I like Haqparast to beat Munoz is that Munoz tends to slow down as the fight progresses. By the midway point of round 2, he starts to look flat, and he is pretty gassed in the 3rd round. In contrast, Haqparast has an amazing gas tank. He can fight at a very high pace for 3 rounds.

This is a great stylistic matchup for Haqparast because he’s better than Munoz everywhere. He should be able to use his superior technique to dominate the fight wherever it takes place. Something crazy would have to happen for Haqparast to lose this.

Reasons for betting on Nasrat Haqparast

  • Nasrat Haqparast is significantly better than Alex Munoz in every single aspect of MMA.
  • Nasrat Haqparast is only 24 years old, so he should be making huge improvements from fight to fight.
  • Nasrat Haqparast has excellent striking defense. He utilizes great footwork, head movement and a high Boxing guard to make it difficult for his opponents to land anything clean.
  • Alex Munoz has a questionable gas tank. He tends to slow down as the fight goes on. He’s usually pretty gassed in the 3rd round.
  • Nasrat Haqparast has an excellent gas tank and pushes a very high pace.
  • Nasrat Haqparast has solid takedown defense and a decent ground game.
  • Alex Munoz is a slow, single shot striker who doesn’t appear to have that much power in his hands.
  • Munoz and Haqparast are both Southpaws. This Southpaw vs Southpaw dynamic favours the more experienced, dynamic striker in Haqparast.
  • Munoz always tends to struggle in round 3 due to his gas tank, which means Haqparast only needs to win one of the first two rounds in order to win a decision.
  • Haqparast is much faster than Munoz.
  • Nasrat Haqparast carries legit 1 shot KO power in every strike. A huge part of this comes from the speed at which he throws his power left hand. His opponents do not see the shot coming.

Risk Factors with betting on Nasrat Haqparast

  • This is Haqparast’s first fight since being knocked out by Drew Dober 8 months ago.
  • Haqparast is not as effective when being forced to fight on the backfoot. This shouldn’t matter because Munoz doesn’t like to lead.
  • Munoz trains at Team Alpha Male.
  • Haqparast is young and inexperienced.
  • Munoz may have improved since his recent fights.

My Betting Tip

Nasrat Haqparast to win

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.43
Moneyline = -233
Fractional = 43/100

70%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Nasrat Haqparast has a 70% chance of beating Alex Munoz based on their current odds.

75%

Our Probability

I believe that Nasrat Haqparast has a 75% chance of beating Alex Munoz based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.