UFC on ESPN+ 28 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

This is a huge week for betting on MMA with Bellator 241 taking place on Friday night and then UFC on ESPN+ 28 on Saturday night. I will be Live streaming my research for all these fights. I will also be Live Betting both of these events. It’s going to be a busy week for us. Hopefully, the hard work will pay off.

Usually, I feel down after having a losing night, but there were a lot of positives to take away from last weekend. We got our money into two really strong positions in Safarov and Jedrzejczyk. The results didn’t go our way, but the reads on those fights were correct. We were definitely on the value side of both bets; it’s just a shame that value doesn’t pay the bills. Only winning bets pay the bills.

Zhang and Jedrzejczyk both looked amazing and put on an incredible fight that could have gone either way. If ever there was a case for a fight being declared a draw, this is it. It was such a close, competitive fight that I think almost any scorecard was acceptable.

In a fight that could have gone either way right up until the decision was read out, it was clear that we were on the right side by betting Jedrzejczyk as a moderate favorite. We just can’t catch a break with prefight bets at the moment. Nothing is going our way. Once again, though, we showed that we are consistently getting our money into the right positions. The upswing that comes off the back of this bad run is going to be epic.

Safarov also came close to coming through for us as a huge underdog. We knew that he’d be very dangerous early, and he showed that the odds were way off on this fight when he hurt Vieira real bad in round 1. The fight would have been stopped due to the damage to Vieira’s eye if Safarov could have just survived until the end of the first round. Props to Vieira, though. In his post-fight interview, he said that he tried hard to finish the fight in round 1 because he knew the Doctor would stop the fight in between rounds once he inspected his eye. I love to see that level of fight IQ. It’s really rare in MMA.

Going 0-2 on an event is usually pretty gutting, but once again, we were very close to a big winning night. We had our money in a couple of really strong positions. Unfortunately, the cards once again did not fall in our favor, but we’re definitely on the right track. We’re getting the correct reads on pretty much every fight we’re betting prefight, but the results are not going our way. At times like this, the upswing is likely to be just as steep as the downswing, so I’m looking forward to our luck turning around soon.

Don’t forget that if you’re one of my Elite Members I will be Live Betting Bellator 241 on Friday night and the UFC on Saturday night. I’ll see you there!

Fight Betting Tip Who I think will win Who I think is the better bet
Charles Oliveira vs Kevin Lee No bet Lee Lee
Demian Maia vs Gilbert Burns No bet Burns Burns
Damir Hadzovic vs Renato Moicano No bet Moicano Moicano
Johnny Walker vs Nikita Krylov No bet Krylov Krylov
Francisco Trinaldo vs John Makdessi 3 units on Francisco Trinaldo to win at odds of 1.60 | -167 | 3/5 Trinaldo Trinaldo
Brandon Moreno vs Jussier Formiga No bet Formiga Formiga
Amanda Ribas vs Randa Markos No bet Ribas Markos
Alexey Kunchenko vs Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos No bet Kunchenko Kunchenko
Enrique Barzola vs Rani Yahya No bet Barzola Yahya
Mayra Bueno Silva vs Maryna Moroz No bet Silva Silva
Bruno Silva vs David Dvorak No bet Silva Silva
Bea Malecki vs Veronica Macedo No bet Malecki Malecki

Francisco Trinaldo vs John Makdessi Betting Tip and Prediction

Francisco Trinaldo is a strange outlier because at 41 years old, he appears to be getting better with age. Trinaldo is at the stage in his career where you’d expect Father time to have hit him hard, but he doesn’t show any signs of a slowing down yet.

John Makdessi is only 34 years old, making him 7 years younger than Trinaldo, but that’s one of the very few advantages that he has in this matchup. It is also worth noting that Makdessi has a lot of miles on the clock for a 34-year-old. He has had over 20 pro fights, he’s been competing in the UFC for 10 years, and he’s suffered some bad injuries. Donald Cerrone broke his jaw back in 2015, and fighters are rarely ever the same again after this injury. It tends to affect their confidence and durability. Most guys are never able to fully recover.

I believe that Francisco Trinaldo is a great bet in this fight because John Makdessi only has one realistic path to victory, whereas Trinaldo has many. I recommend checking out my Livestream on for a comprehensive breakdown of the reasons why Trinaldo is a decent bet at the current odds of around 1.60 | -167 | 3/5.

John Makdessi has his hands full on Saturday night because he doesn’t just need to beat Francisco Trinaldo, he also has to beat the judges. Trinaldo is a popular Brazilian fighter, and Makdessi has a point fighting style, which often makes it difficult for him to put his stamp on rounds. For Makdessi to win this fight, he’s going to need to either finish Trinaldo or win rounds dominantly. Both of those outcomes are unlikely based on their past performances.

When you go back and watch Makdessi’s past fights, it’s clear that he doesn’t really have the power to hurt his opponents. This is also backed up by his MMA record. Makdessi only has 2 wins by KO in his last 14 fights. Trinaldo has shown in his past fights that he has a great chin and he’s very tough. Trinaldo has never been KO’d in his entire 31 fight career. This means that for Makdessi to win, he’s probably going to have to win a decision in Brazil. That won’t be easy because of Trinaldo’s style of fighting and the fact that he is going to have home advantage on his side.

Makdessi and Trinaldo are both primarily strikers with very different styles.

Makdessi has a point fighting style based on Tae Kwon Do, where he looks to chip away at his opponent with kicks from the outside. Makdessi doesn’t put much power in his strikes but instead looks to rack up big volume and use his strikes to control the distance and disrupt the rhythm of his opponents.

Makdessi’s style of striking is all kicks based. His Boxing isn’t great at all. His striking defense is pretty bad. Makdessi is very susceptible to power strikes from his right side, which makes this a tough matchup for him because Trinaldo is Southpaw.

Trinaldo is more of a single shot power striker that looks to inflict big damage whenever he lands. Makdessi is very easy to hit, so I believe Trinaldo is going to have a lot of success with his power left hand from the Southpaw stance. Trinaldo also does a good job of fighting long.

Makdessi lands a higher volume of strikes than Trinaldo per round, but they are pitter-patter shots that don’t tend to do much damage. In contrast, Trinaldo is looking to take you out with everything that he lands, and his power strikes are likely to get big reactions from the crowd and influence the judges. Especially because Makdessi’s bad striking defense means that he’s prone to eating big shots that snap his head back and back him up.

Both these guys are primarily strikers, and this is a classic volume vs power type matchup. In a fight like this, Trinaldo will be able to negate a lot of Makdessi’s volume with his power shots, especially because Trinaldo’s striking defense is pretty good. We also have to take into account the fact that Trinaldo has the power to KO Makdessi, whereas Makdessi doesn’t really have the power to hurt Trinaldo. We also have to take into consideration the fact that if this fight does end up being close, the Brazilian judges are more likely to side with Trinaldo. Makdessi is going to have to put his stamp on rounds in a big way, and I just don’t see that happening.

There’s also the possibility that Trinaldo uses his grappling. If he does, it could be an easy night’s work for him. Makdessi has a base in Tae Kwon Do, and his takedown defense isn’t the best. Trinaldo is strong, powerful, and he has a heavy top game. If these two fighters go to the ground, Trinaldo is likely to have a big advantage.

I love a bet on Trinaldo here because his current odds of around 1.60 | -167 | 3/5, carry an Implied Probability of just 63%. This is crazy when you take into account all the ways that this fight could go. Realistically Makdessi only has one path to victory. He needs to outpoint Trinaldo and win a decision. On the flipside, Trinaldo has lots of ways he can win. He can win a decision by landing the bigger, more damaging strikes. He can knock Makdessi out, or he can win the fight with his grappling.

This is a good stylistic matchup for Francisco Trinaldo. Hopefully, he comes through for us.

Reasons for betting on Francisco Trinaldo

  • John Makdessi has bad striking defense.
  • Francisco Trinaldo is a heavy handed Southpaw. Makdessi’s performance against Pinedo indicates that he is likely to have an issue against Southpaws who can Box.
  • John Makdessi is quite small for the Lightweight division. Francisco Trinaldo is strong and powerful. He’ll have a slight size advantage but should have a big physicality advantage.
  • John Makdessi has suffered a couple of really bad KOs in the last 5 years. Donald Cerrone broke his jaw which is an injury that can effect a fighter’s confidence and durability for the rest of their life. Makdessi hasn’t really faced a power puncher like Trinaldo since he was KO’d by Lando Vannata back in 2016.
  • Francisco Trinaldo has never been KO’d in his entire 31 fight career.
  • Francisco Trinaldo should have a big advantage if this fight goes to the ground. He has a very heavy top game.
  • John Makdessi has a point fighting style of striking and often struggles to put his stamp on rounds.
  • Francisco Trinaldo is Brazilian, so he’ll have home advantage on his side. It won’t be easy for Makdessi to win a decision against Trinaldo in Brazil.
  • Francisco Trinaldo has pretty good striking defense.
  • Francisco Trinaldo is difficult to outpoint because he’s always looking to “get it back” when you land on him.
  • Francisco Trinaldo is extremely tough. He’s the kind of guy that you have to practically kill in order to finish.

Risk Factors with betting on Francisco Trinaldo

  • Francisco Trinaldo is now 41 years old. He’s at that stage in his career where Father time can creep up fast.
  • John Makdessi throws a very high volume of strikes per round.
  • Francisco Trinaldo can be a little reckless at times.
  • Francisco Trinaldo does tend to load up on his shots sometimes.
  • John Makdessi is a decent kicker.

My Betting Tip

Francisco Trinaldo to win

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.60
Moneyline = -167
Fractional = 3/5

63%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Francisco Trinaldo has a 63% chance of beating John Makdessi based on their current odds.

70%

Our Probability

I believe that Francisco Trinaldo has a 70% chance of beating John Makdessi based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

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