UFC on ESPN+ 1 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

2018 is over, and that means we have another profitable year under our belts. Overall we made 100.8 units of profit which is an outstanding return on investment. There are very few investment opportunities on earth that can generate this kind of return for such a small price. A year's worth of Elite Membership fees cost just $2316 and the amount of money you should have made over the last 12 months should be much more than that! Unfortunately, the second half of 2018 was tainted by bad luck. I have been betting on MMA for around 10 years, and 2018 was by far my worst ever year. Even during 2015 when we got killed by the introduction USADA drug testing, we still managed to crush it in Live Betting. I had always thought that Live Betting was immune to variance, but the bad beats we've taken as a result of bad judging in 2018 have made me feel very differently! Take a look at the graphic below that was posted this week on the MMA Decisions website. It shows the 10 worst decisions of 2018: Out of the top 10 worst decisions, we lost 5 units on Tim Means against Sergio Moraes. That decision was so bad that the UFC paid Means his win bonus! We also lost 5 units on Scoggins against Nurmagomedov. We also lost 2 units on Amanda Cooper when she was robbed against Ashley Yoder, and we also lost 3 units on Eddie Wineland against Alejandro Perez. What makes it even more painful was that we bet Cooper, Wineland, and Scoggins at underdog odds. Talk about getting your money in a strong position! That's -15 units on just those top 10 fights. They don't include the countless other losses due to bad judging that we suffered in 2018. The split decision robbery of Bobby Green a few weeks ago didn't even make the list! Bad judging has cost us at least 50 to 60 units of profit this year and the impact of those losses is immeasurable when you factor in compounded growth. I would estimate that these losses have personally cost me around £50,000 to £60,000. Take a look at our profitability graph below. How many of those break-even months would have been profitable months if just half those split decision robberies had gone our way?
The first half of 2018 was very different. We made so much money that the atmosphere around the Chat Room was euphoric. We were all on Cloud 9. I would receive weekly emails from Elite members asking me to take the community underground because they were worried that the betting sites would find a way to shut us down. I had people asking me to increase membership fees to $500 a month because they felt $199 was too low. I even had a few people that wanted to pay a year's worth of fees up front. Just 6 months later and most of the people who sent those emails have now left us. Only a few remain. Now we are back in the trenches with the same hardcore group that has been with me since the beginning. We've also picked up a few more people along the way. I respect them so much for joining us during a period of time when we've failed to make any significant amount of money. They have never experienced what it's like when we hit a big winning run. I'm excited for them because their patience will pay off soon. They have no idea yet that they have stumbled across an absolute gold mine. Their patience and persistence will be rewarded soon. We will all be rewarded soon. The second half of 2018 was frustrating, but I won't call it a bad end to the year because it wasn't. It was bad by our usual standards, but in the final 6 months of the year, we still managed to grind out 9 units of profit. This is nothing compared to what we usually make, but a profit is a profit. We didn't capitulate and wind up making a big loss. We hung in there, consistently put our money in strong positions and even though things didn't work out we continue to show up every weekend and wait for the next big winning run. It's important to remember that this is not the first time we have hit a rough patch. In November 2017 I returned to my hotel room in Disneyland to do some fight research for the Bisping vs Gastelum Fight Night card in Shanghai. As my wife and kid cuddled up on the bed to watch a movie on Netflix, I was sat at the desk studying fights. I fired up my emails to read a message from an Elite member stating that they had lost faith in me because of a couple of bets that they felt were bad over the last few months. They went into great detail about why they felt these were bad bets and they told me that they were considering canceling. Shortly after receiving that email we made 105 units of profit in just 4 months. You guessed it. This was the same guy that was emailing me asking me to take the community underground and increase subscription fees to $500 a month. Funny how times change. Had he canceled in November 2017 he would have missed out on thousands of pounds in profit. The truth is that most people never make any money because they throw the towel in when the going gets tough. This is true for pretty much every type of investment on earth. Nobody likes to lose, but it's important to accept that everything goes up and down in cycles. Nothing can continue going up all the time. In the last 200 years, the United States economy has consistently grown over time: Downswings in the US economy are common, and they usually last for around 12 months. This information is readily available to everyone and discussed in the majority of books on investing. Despite this, the vast majority of investors sell at a loss during these downswings. The S & P 500 index fund is the best reflection of the US economy, and right now it's struggling bad. A few weeks ago it had it's worst day in many years. If you read the Financial Times or the Wall Street Journal right now, you would think that this is the end of days. You'd think that the economy was doomed and that we're all going to be forced to sell our homes and live on food rations in the next few years. All the key players in Financial media are quick to sell this Doomsday narrative, even though history tells us that bad downswings in the US economy are immediately followed up by huge upswings around 80% of the time. Only 1 in 5 downswings tend to go on to become a significant bear market and even when they do the market tends to begin recovering within just 2 years. To put that into perspective for you. The average downswing in the US economy lasts for 12 months, while the average upswing lasts 8 to 10 years. Despite this well-known information, the vast majority of people sell when prices are low and buy when they are at their peak. How many people sold their shares in Apple, only to miss out on the massive returns they would have gained during the release of the iPod, iPad, and iPhone. How many people lost faith in Zuckerberg and ditched Facebook when he refused to sell to Yahoo for $1 billion? How many people sold their shares in Amazon at $3.50, only to see the share price rally to $2000 a share less than 15 years later. We're seeing a similar thing happen in the Crypto market at the moment. Many people are declaring Crypto dead, but this is the 4th bear market Crypto has gone through in its 10-year history. Crypto is not dead, it's just cooling off for a while! I'm not trying to compare what we do to these incredible companies or the US economy. But I am trying to highlight the importance of having conviction in your decisions when the information makes sense to stick with something. 90% of companies will fail in the long term, so it's important not to back a dead horse into it's grave, but at the same time, we know that historical data is a good indication of future performance. The vast majority of companies fail after their first boom and bust cycle. Statistics show that if something survives it's first boom and bust cycle it is in a solid position to have a successful future. My results over the last 5 years show a clear trend of consistent profits. We have hit a few downswings along the way, but we always bounce back relatively quickly.
We have so much to look forward to in 2019. The future has never looked brighter! The UFC has put together a stacked broadcasting schedule for this year with an event almost every week right up until August. This gives us so many opportunities to bank some huge profits. So far the UFC has only announced their events schedule up until the end of June, but we know for a fact that July and December are huge months for the UFC. They'll have at least 5 or 6 events in July for International fight week and 5 or 6 events in December with their big double event weekend for the TUF Finale. With so many events coming up in 2019, as well as more and more betting sites offering Live Betting on Bellator, PFL and Cage Warriors, it looks like 2019 could be our best year ever. Who knows, 2019 might even be the year where we finally see major betting sites like Bet365 and William Hill re-enter the US market. This is the golden ticket we've all been waiting for, and I am confident that it will come sometime in the next few years. Congratulations if you are still reading this because it means you've survived my worst run of results in 10 years of betting on the UFC. The maximum point of pain usually signals the maximum point of opportunity, and I have a sneaky feeling we're going to absolutely crush it over the next few months. 2019 is shaping up to be our best year ever. Thank you so much for sticking with me over the last few months, it means more than you know. I am itching to get started on the 19th of January. Giant profits are just around the corner.

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Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.