UFC on ESPN+ 1 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

2018 is over, and that means we have another profitable year under our belts.

Overall we made 100.8 units of profit which is an outstanding return on investment. There are very few investment opportunities on earth that can generate this kind of return for such a small price.

A year’s worth of Elite Membership fees cost just $2316 and the amount of money you should have made over the last 12 months should be much more than that!

Unfortunately, the second half of 2018 was tainted by bad luck. I have been betting on MMA for around 10 years, and 2018 was by far my worst ever year. Even during 2015 when we got killed by the introduction USADA drug testing, we still managed to crush it in Live Betting. I had always thought that Live Betting was immune to variance, but the bad beats we’ve taken as a result of bad judging in 2018 have made me feel very differently!

Take a look at the graphic below that was posted this week on the MMA Decisions website. It shows the 10 worst decisions of 2018:

Out of the top 10 worst decisions, we lost 5 units on Tim Means against Sergio Moraes. That decision was so bad that the UFC paid Means his win bonus! We also lost 5 units on Scoggins against Nurmagomedov. We also lost 2 units on Amanda Cooper when she was robbed against Ashley Yoder, and we also lost 3 units on Eddie Wineland against Alejandro Perez. What makes it even more painful was that we bet Cooper, Wineland, and Scoggins at underdog odds. Talk about getting your money in a strong position! That’s -15 units on just those top 10 fights. They don’t include the countless other losses due to bad judging that we suffered in 2018. The split decision robbery of Bobby Green a few weeks ago didn’t even make the list!

Bad judging has cost us at least 50 to 60 units of profit this year and the impact of those losses is immeasurable when you factor in compounded growth. I would estimate that these losses have personally cost me around £50,000 to £60,000. Take a look at our profitability graph below. How many of those break-even months would have been profitable months if just half those split decision robberies had gone our way?

The first half of 2018 was very different. We made so much money that the atmosphere around the Chat Room was euphoric. We were all on Cloud 9. I would receive weekly emails from Elite members asking me to take the community underground because they were worried that the betting sites would find a way to shut us down. I had people asking me to increase membership fees to $500 a month because they felt $199 was too low. I even had a few people that wanted to pay a year’s worth of fees up front. Just 6 months later and most of the people who sent those emails have now left us. Only a few remain. Now we are back in the trenches with the same hardcore group that has been with me since the beginning. We’ve also picked up a few more people along the way. I respect them so much for joining us during a period of time when we’ve failed to make any significant amount of money. They have never experienced what it’s like when we hit a big winning run. I’m excited for them because their patience will pay off soon. They have no idea yet that they have stumbled across an absolute gold mine. Their patience and persistence will be rewarded soon. We will all be rewarded soon.

The second half of 2018 was frustrating, but I won’t call it a bad end to the year because it wasn’t. It was bad by our usual standards, but in the final 6 months of the year, we still managed to grind out 9 units of profit. This is nothing compared to what we usually make, but a profit is a profit. We didn’t capitulate and wind up making a big loss. We hung in there, consistently put our money in strong positions and even though things didn’t work out we continue to show up every weekend and wait for the next big winning run.

It’s important to remember that this is not the first time we have hit a rough patch. In November 2017 I returned to my hotel room in Disneyland to do some fight research for the Bisping vs Gastelum Fight Night card in Shanghai. As my wife and kid cuddled up on the bed to watch a movie on Netflix, I was sat at the desk studying fights. I fired up my emails to read a message from an Elite member stating that they had lost faith in me because of a couple of bets that they felt were bad over the last few months. They went into great detail about why they felt these were bad bets and they told me that they were considering canceling. Shortly after receiving that email we made 105 units of profit in just 4 months.

You guessed it. This was the same guy that was emailing me asking me to take the community underground and increase subscription fees to $500 a month. Funny how times change. Had he canceled in November 2017 he would have missed out on thousands of pounds in profit.

The truth is that most people never make any money because they throw the towel in when the going gets tough. This is true for pretty much every type of investment on earth. Nobody likes to lose, but it’s important to accept that everything goes up and down in cycles. Nothing can continue going up all the time.

In the last 200 years, the United States economy has consistently grown over time:

Downswings in the US economy are common, and they usually last for around 12 months. This information is readily available to everyone and discussed in the majority of books on investing. Despite this, the vast majority of investors sell at a loss during these downswings.

The S & P 500 index fund is the best reflection of the US economy, and right now it’s struggling bad. A few weeks ago it had it’s worst day in many years. If you read the Financial Times or the Wall Street Journal right now, you would think that this is the end of days. You’d think that the economy was doomed and that we’re all going to be forced to sell our homes and live on food rations in the next few years. All the key players in Financial media are quick to sell this Doomsday narrative, even though history tells us that bad downswings in the US economy are immediately followed up by huge upswings around 80% of the time. Only 1 in 5 downswings tend to go on to become a significant bear market and even when they do the market tends to begin recovering within just 2 years.

To put that into perspective for you. The average downswing in the US economy lasts for 12 months, while the average upswing lasts 8 to 10 years. Despite this well-known information, the vast majority of people sell when prices are low and buy when they are at their peak.

How many people sold their shares in Apple, only to miss out on the massive returns they would have gained during the release of the iPod, iPad, and iPhone. How many people lost faith in Zuckerberg and ditched Facebook when he refused to sell to Yahoo for $1 billion? How many people sold their shares in Amazon at $3.50, only to see the share price rally to $2000 a share less than 15 years later. We’re seeing a similar thing happen in the Crypto market at the moment. Many people are declaring Crypto dead, but this is the 4th bear market Crypto has gone through in its 10-year history. Crypto is not dead, it’s just cooling off for a while!

I’m not trying to compare what we do to these incredible companies or the US economy. But I am trying to highlight the importance of having conviction in your decisions when the information makes sense to stick with something. 90% of companies will fail in the long term, so it’s important not to back a dead horse into it’s grave, but at the same time, we know that historical data is a good indication of future performance. The vast majority of companies fail after their first boom and bust cycle. Statistics show that if something survives it’s first boom and bust cycle it is in a solid position to have a successful future.

My results over the last 5 years show a clear trend of consistent profits. We have hit a few downswings along the way, but we always bounce back relatively quickly.

We have so much to look forward to in 2019. The future has never looked brighter! The UFC has put together a stacked broadcasting schedule for this year with an event almost every week right up until August. This gives us so many opportunities to bank some huge profits.

So far the UFC has only announced their events schedule up until the end of June, but we know for a fact that July and December are huge months for the UFC. They’ll have at least 5 or 6 events in July for International fight week and 5 or 6 events in December with their big double event weekend for the TUF Finale.

With so many events coming up in 2019, as well as more and more betting sites offering Live Betting on Bellator, PFL and Cage Warriors, it looks like 2019 could be our best year ever. Who knows, 2019 might even be the year where we finally see major betting sites like Bet365 and William Hill re-enter the US market. This is the golden ticket we’ve all been waiting for, and I am confident that it will come sometime in the next few years.

Congratulations if you are still reading this because it means you’ve survived my worst run of results in 10 years of betting on the UFC. The maximum point of pain usually signals the maximum point of opportunity, and I have a sneaky feeling we’re going to absolutely crush it over the next few months.

2019 is shaping up to be our best year ever. Thank you so much for sticking with me over the last few months, it means more than you know. I am itching to get started on the 19th of January. Giant profits are just around the corner.

Fight Betting Tip Pick
Henry Cejudo vs TJ Dillashaw No bet Dillashaw to win
Allen Crowder vs Greg Hardy No bet Crowder to win
Gregor Gillespie vs Yancy Medeiros No bet Gillespie to win
Dustin Ortiz vs Joseph Benavidez No bet Benavidez to win
Corey Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista No bet Sandhagen to win
Paige VanZant vs Rachael Ostovich No bet Ostovich to win
Glover Teixeira vs Karl Roberson No bet Roberson to win
Alexander Hernandez vs Donald Cerrone No bet Cerrone to win
Ariane Lipski vs Joanne Calderwood 3 units on Ariane Lipski to win at odds of 1.47 | -213 | 47/100 Lipski to win
Alonzo Menifield vs Vinicius Alves No bet Alves to win
Dennis Bermudez vs Te Edwards No bet Edwards to win
Belal Muhammad vs Geoff Neal No bet Edwards to win
Chance Rencountre vs Kyle Stewart No bet Stewart to win

Ariane Lipski vs Joanne Calderwood Betting Tip and Prediction

If Wanderlei Silva and Joanna Jedrzejczyk had a baby girl, she would probably fight a lot like Ariane Lipski. Here’s a video that gives you a short glimpse into what “The Violence Queen” brings to the table in her UFC debut against Joanne Calderwood:

The UFC’s acquisition of Ariane Lipski has flown under the radar, which is surprising because she’s the current KSW Flyweight Champion.

KSW Champions are paid exceptionally well by the Polish promotion. Their top fighters tend to earn much more money than the average UFC fighter. Many KSW Champions drive around in Ferraris and Lamborghinis, which is the reason why we rarely see high-level KSW fighters enter the UFC. The UFC can’t afford to pay them as well as KSW can.

Ariane Lipski was the poster girl for the KSW promotion and her exciting fighting style, good looks and extreme marketability would mean that the UFC would have had to spend a considerable amount of money to sign her.

Ariane Lipski may look like a fitness model, but don’t let her glamorous looks deceive you. Lipski is the real deal and her nickname of “The Violence Queen” perfectly describes her vicious fighting style.

Lipski is an incredible fighter, who should jump right into title contention if she can get past Joanne Calderwood at UFC on ESPN+ 1. I’m surprised that the UFC didn’t try to fast track her to the top of the division by matching her up on the main card against a higher profile opponent like Paige VanZant or Rachael Ostovich. I’m guessing that they didn’t want to see one of their existing poster girls get wrecked by an “up and comer” that very few UFC fans will have heard of. We saw this happen a few years back when they prematurely matched VanZant up against Rose Namajunas and we all remember how that played out…

The current odds on Lipski are an attractive proposition because she was always around a 1.15 | -667 | 3/20 favorite when she fought in KSW. This may lead you to believe that she was being given soft matchups, but that’s not true. KSW don’t tend to protect their Champions, so Lipski has fought a semi-decent level of opponent throughout her career. Being able to bet Lipski at the current odds of around 1.48 | -208 | 12/25 is an absolute gift when we consider how high her ceiling might be.

The UFC might not be making a massive deal of Lipski signing, but they are gifting her an easy stylistic opponent in Joanne Calderwood. Both Lipski and Calderwood have a base in Muay Thai, but Lipski is significantly faster, more technical and more powerful.

If this fight stays standing, I expect Lipski to land the more damaging significant strikes. One big weakness in Calderwood’s game is that she doesn’t move her head much. Lipski really sits down on her punches, and she should be able to land several big shots on Calderwood throughout the fight that give Lipski a legit chance of winning this matchup by knockout or TKO. Calderwood tends to get caught cold with big shots quite frequently, and Lipski is not the kind of opponent who you want to let tee off on you. Calderwood is currently training at Syndicate MMA in Las Vegas with Roxanne Modafferi as her main training partner. This gym is primarily grappling based, which makes it unlikely that Calderwood has tightened up her striking defense.

Another reason why I believe Lipski is a good bet is that Calderwood doesn’t wear damage well. She often looks much worse off than her opponents; even when she wins. You’ll often see her face battered and bloodied after just a few minutes into her fights. This will make life harder for her under the new era of MMA judging, where judges are supposed to rank damage inflicted as one of the key scoring criteria in fights.

If this fight goes to the ground, Lipski should have a significant advantage. She’s a Purple Belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and much more intelligent when it comes to grappling. Calderwood has made significant improvements to her ground game over the years, but her takedown defense is still atrocious, and she’s still low level on the ground. Lipski is more technical on the ground, and she’s able to do significant damage from top position. Lipski also does an excellent job of quickly finding a way to scramble back to her feet when she does end up on her back.

Both Calderwood and Lipski are primarily Muay Thai fighters, so I do expect the majority of this matchup to take place standing up. Lipski has a big speed and technique advantage over Calderwood, so she should be able to control the striking exchanges. Lipski also has excellent cardio, having competed in 25 minute, 5 round title fights in KSW. She does a good job of pacing herself, so it’s unlikely that Calderwood will be able to outwork her.

Lipski’s style of fighting is difficult for her opponents to deal with because she has that tight Muay Thai technique that she uses to punish her opponents when they start to open up against her. You will rarely see Lipski initiate an exchange. Instead, she chooses to apply pressure to her opponents, until they are forced to try and back her up with punches and kicks. From there she stays in a solid defensive shell and punishes them with powerful, counter combinations. This is an intelligent style of fighting because it deters her opponents from attacking her. It also puts them into a defensive shell because they know that everytime they open up, they’re going to have to deal with vicious counter strikes coming back at them. By forcing her opponents to fight backing up, she also forces them into having to use up more energy and react to her.

If you spend some time studying footage of Lipski and Calderwood’s past fights, there’s no doubt that Lipski is the superior fighter from a technical perspective, but I also like what I am seeing from her outside of the cage. In the last 12 months she has moved to Kings MMA to train with the legendary coach Rafael Cordeiro:

Kings MMA is a fantastic gym to train at, and under the guidance of Rafael Cordeiro, Lipski could really develop into something special. In contrast, I feel like Joanne Calderwood has made some really poor career choices over the last few years…

Many fighters over the last couple of years have moved to Las Vegas to be closer to the UFC Performance Institute. The Performance Institute provides fighters with free food, diet plans, healthcare and state of the art science that can help them advance their level of performance. Unfortunately, the standard of MMA gyms in Vegas tends to be very poor. Calderwood and most other fighters that move to Vegas end up training at Syndicate MMA, which is a really bad MMA gym. Very few fighters ever improve when they move to Syndicate, in fact, they often go backward…

Countless fighters have had their careers derailed in recent years after moving to Las Vegas to live and train and while Claudia Gadelha and Francis Ngannou are two of the more high profile victims, countless others have suffered like Jessica Rose-Clark. Rose-Clark recently spoke openly about how her time at Syndicate didn’t work out and how she was planning to move her training to somewhere else. If you spend some time scrolling through the Syndicate MMA Instagram page you’ll find an all-star cast of fighters who are well known for having poor gameplans and terrible fight IQ. This is no coincidence…

I also believe that Lipski is a solid bet in this matchup because Calderwood often struggles with anxiety issues that prevent her from performing to her full potential on fight night. In the past, she has spoken openly about her struggles with mental health, which in this instance does make Lipski the safer bet. Lipski has a mean streak, and up until this point in her career, she has been ruthlessly consistent. There’s nothing we’ve seen from her in the past which would suggest that she’d underperform in her UFC debut.

Normally I wouldn’t recommend betting on a fighter in their UFC debut as a favorite because Octagon jitters can often have a negative impact on a fighter’s performance. However, I don’t believe that Octagon jitters will impact Lipski because she has fought in front of 50,000 people in 5 round title fights for KSW:

This is what 50K in Poland looks like. KSW 39: Colosseum

The average attendance for UFC shows is only 10,000 to 20,000 people, so if anything this move to the UFC is a step down from what Lipski is used to competing in front of for KSW. KSW fighters are also superstars in Poland.

Stylistically this is a great matchup for Lipski, and with her experience competing in huge fights for KSW, she should be too much to handle for Calderwood. I believe there’s a good chance she wins this fight by KO or TKO.

Reasons for betting on Ariane Lipski

  • Ariane Lipski has experience competing in massive, 5 round title fights in front of 50,000 people in stadiums in Poland.
  • Ariane Lipski is now training full time at Kings MMA under Rafael Cordeiro.
  • Ariane Lipski has good takedown defense.
  • Ariane Lipski has a Purple Belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and regularly competes in BJJ tournaments. She should have a significant advantage if this fight goes to the ground.
  • Ariane Lipski is able to inflict significant damage from top position.
  • Ariane Lipski is much faster than Joanne Calderwood.
  • Ariane Lipski has excellent cardio. She can easily fight at a high pace for 3 rounds.
  • Joanne Calderwood has bad striking defense. She tends to get caught cold with big shots.
  • Ariane Lipski has much tighter striking technique.
  • Ariane Lipski delivers strikes with much more power than Calderwood.
  • Calderwood does not wear damage well. She gets cut and bloodied up very easily. This is not good under the new era of MMA judging, where judges are supposed to give more credit to damage inflicted.
  • Joanne Calderwood has very bad takedown defense.

Risk Factors with betting on Ariane Lipski

  • This is Lipski’s UFC debut.
  • Lipski has never fought under a strict drug testing programme before.
  • Female fighters tend to be more inconsistent than male fighters.
  • Lipski does have a habit of getting sucked into wild exchanges. She likes to be the Alpha and control the fight. She’s willing to get very aggressive in order to ensure she has control.

My Betting Tip

Ariane Lipski to win

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.47
Moneyline = -213
Fractional = 47/100

68%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Ariane Lipski has a 68% chance of beating Joanne Calderwood based on their current odds.

75%

Our Probability

I believe that Ariane Lipski has a 75% chance of beating Joanne Calderwood based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

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