May is shaping up to be another excellent month for us. We are now 4-1 on prefight bets in May for a total profit of 5.01 units. We have also made just over 6 units of profit in Live Betting for a combined total profit of over 11 units. Not bad considering we’ve only had 2 UFC events so far this month.
UFC on ESPN+ 10 initially looks very bad for prefight betting. If you take a look at the odds, you can see that the vast majority of the card consists of heavy favorites. It has been a long time since I saw a UFC card stacked with this many heavy favorites. In order to find some decent bets, we are going to either have to identify some good value underdogs or identify a relatively safe 2 or 3 leg parlay/accumulator. At first glance, nothing is jumping out at me, but hopefully, by the time I complete my research, I will have found at least one solid prefight bet.
On events like this, it is crucial that you do not force bets. So far we have crushed it in 2019, and there’s no need to put good profits in harm’s way. It is not worth potentially dumping money off on bad bets to get the dopamine hit of placing some bets.
We saw last weekend how unpredictable the sport could be with many of my pre-fight picks losing. This is the nature of the game and a clear example of why it’s essential to keep things tight and only put your money into strong positions. Anything can happen in MMA, and if there are no solid betting opportunities, it is best not to place any bets at all. Save your money for better opportunities further down the line. I am hopeful that I will find at least one solid prefight bet for this card, but it is also a possibility that I won’t find anything. Please remember that we have soooooooooo many events coming up for the remainder of the year. Don’t make bad betting decisions, keep things tight.
UFC on ESPN+ 10 is the final UFC before we get a week off to recharge our batteries before starting another crazy run of back to back UFC events almost every weekend right up until the end of August:
I also urge you not to take my “picks” too seriously. It has concerned me over recent months to see a lot of people making betting decisions based on my picks. If I felt confident in my picks, I would bet them myself!!! Fights listed as “no bet” are listed as “no bet” for a reason.
Please only use these picks as a reference tool. Anything can happen in MMA. If I pick a fighter to win, it may just mean that I see more value in their Implied Probability than in their opponent’s. Just because I pick someone like Nogueira to beat Spann, it doesn’t actually mean I think Nogueira will win. It just means that I’d prefer to bet Nogueira if you held a gun to my head.
Picks are something that should not be taken seriously. They are irrelevant. I am a Professional Gambler. Not a Professional picker. All I care about is putting my money in strong positions and winning bets.
Don’t forget that we will also be able to Livebet KSW 49 this weekend which starts around 4 hours before the UFC. I will be sharing my Live Betting Tips for KSW with all Elite Members. Please remember that Live Betting on KSW is a very low liquidity market so odds will be suspended and crash much faster and much more frequently than on UFC fights. There is also only a small selection of websites that offer Live Betting on KSW. So far I am only aware of LVBet, STS Bet and Bet2U offering Live Betting on KSW.
Take care. Thank you again for your support. I hope you’ve made a lot of money this year already! I’ll see you guys in the Chat Room.
|Kevin Lee vs Rafael Dos Anjos||No bet||Dos Anjos to win|
|Antonio Carlos Junior vs Ian Heinisch||No bet||Carlos Junior to win|
|Felicia Spencer vs Megan Anderson||No bet||Anderson to win|
|Derrick Krantz vs Vicente Luque||No bet||Luque to win|
|Charles Oliveira vs Nik Lentz||No bet||Oliveira to win|
|Austin Hubbard vs Davi Ramos||No bet||Ramos to win|
|Aspen Ladd vs Sijara Eubanks||No bet||Ladd to win|
|Charles Jourdain vs Desmond Green||No bet||Green to win|
|Danny Roberts vs Michel Pereira||No bet||Roberts to win|
|Grant Dawson vs Mike Trizano||1 unit on Mike Trizano to win at odds of 2.35 | +135 | 27/20||Trizano to win|
|Ed Herman vs Patrick Cummins||No bet||Cummins to win|
|Trevin Giles vs Zak Cummings||No bet||Giles to win|
|Julio Arce vs Julian Erosa||No bet||Arce to win|
Grant Dawson vs Mike Trizano Betting Tip and Prediction
Based on what we have seen in past fights from Mike Trizano and Grant Dawson, Trizano stands a very good chance of winning this fight, and that’s why he has been the favorite all week.
On fight day we often see a lot of odds movement because most casual gamblers place their bets on the day of the fights and the cumulative amount of money that they bet, far outweighs the money bet by sharp bettors throughout the rest of the week.
In the last 24 hours we have seen Trizano’s odds move from 1.70 | -143 | 7/10 on most betting sites, up to as much as 2.40 | +140 | 7/5 on some sites today. You can currently bet Trizano at around 2.30 | +130 | 13/10 on most betting sites, which is a massive improvement on his odds from yesterday.
This kind of odds movement may seem extreme, but it’s really not that surprising at all. MMA Betting is still a low liquidity betting market, and throughout this week not much money would have been bet on a small prelim fight like this on a card like UFC on ESPN+ 10 that most people don’t care about. Yesterday we saw the odds move on our bet on Scott Askham from around 1.80 | -125 | 4/5 down to just 1.20 | -500 | 1/5 in a matter of hours. This illustrates the lack of liquidity in many of the smaller fights in MMA.
Yesterday this low liquidity went against us because many people within our community were not able to bet Scott Askham before the odds crashed. I understand that this is really annoying, but from my perspective, I’d prefer to put a bet out and try to help some people make money, rather than no one be able to make money at all. I hope you understand. We knew the odds on Askham would crash. The liquidity is just not high enough for everyone to try and bet the same fighter when there aren’t enough people betting his opponent to give some stability to the odds. This isn’t usually a problem for UFC cards, but it’s still a big problem for smaller promotions.
I am hoping that the low liquidity nature of MMA will work in our favor today. I reluctantly passed on betting Mike Trizano when he was around a 1.70 | -143 | 7/10 favorite, but now that his odds have improved to as high as 2.40 | +140 | 7/5, this is now a no brainer bet for me.
Based on the past performances of Trizano and Dawson, Trizano stands a very good chance of winning this fight, and in my opinion, he should be the favorite. My only concern in betting him is that we haven’t seen too much of Dawson. If he shows up and performs like he did 2 months ago in his UFC debut against Julian Erosa, Trizano should win this fight quite comfortably. My only concern is that fighters are never at their best in their UFC debut, so I’m expecting a better version of Grant Dawson to show up on Saturday night. This is a massive risk factor in the fight and also a risk that we cannot quantify, which is the reason why I only recommend betting Trizano small.
This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. Mike Trizano is your typical Tiger Schulmann type fighter. He’s a very technical kickboxer with solid takedown defense and a high-level ground game. Grant Dawson is more of a wet blanket style grappler. Dawson doesn’t have the best grappling technique, but he makes up for that with relentless pressure and hard work. This is one of my concerns for betting Trizano. [more on that later]
Grant Dawson may appear to be a strong grappler to the naked eye, but he’s actually quite average in the sense that he does not use the correct techniques to take his opponents down and control them on the ground. Dawson does everything with hard work, power, and explosion and because he does not use the correct technique, he tends to slow down significantly as the fight progresses. It is exhausting to continually work for takedowns if you are not using the correct technique, and I feel this may really start to cost Dawson as he starts to face a higher level of opponent now that he is in the UFC. He slowed down significantly in his UFC debut against Julian Erosa, and it also happened when he fought Christian Camp in Victory FC.
Historically Tiger Schulmann guys are very difficult to take down and hold down, and Trizano is no different. He has excellent balance and does a great job of getting underhooks in play early and making it very difficult for his opponents to connect their hands together and complete takedowns.
MMA at the highest level is a game of inches and Trizano’s ability to get underhooks in play early, and Dawson’s lack of proper technique could be the difference between a win and a loss. Dawson gives his opponents a lot of space to get underhooks in play, and he also telegraphs takedown attempts which gives Trizano a very good chance of keeping this fight standing. If Trizano does keep this fight standing he should dominate.
One of the reasons why I believe Dawson will struggle to take a lot of his opponents down now that he is facing a higher level of fighter is because his striking is at a very low level. His offensive striking is sloppy and predictable, and he doesn’t carry any power in his hands. Defensively he’s also bad. He doesn’t move his head, and he doesn’t have any footwork. The low level nature of his striking means that he can’t setup takedowns using his striking, which means that a high-level Kickboxer like Trizano can see the takedown entries coming from a mile away. This means that he can get himself ready to get underhooks in play early, clear his legs and create a strong base when he allows a guy like Dawson to drive him into the cage.
If Trizano can keep this fight standing, then it should not even be a contest. Trizano should dominate, and I also believe that there’s a good chance Trizano will win this fight by KO as Dawson starts to get tired.
I do however have a few of concerns with this bet…
My first concern is that fighters are never at their best when they make their UFC debut. This means Dawson may show up and look much better than he did in his debut 2 months ago against Julian Erosa.
I am also concerned that Dawson will have made significant improvements to his cardio since his fight with Erosa. Although this is more unlikely because he’s only had 2 months to train since that fight. It’s not enough time to develop a more efficient style of fighting.
A third concern I have is that Trizano may make a positional or technical mistake and give up a takedown early in the 1st round, which would then enable Dawson to coast from top position and conserve his energy. This would then mean that Dawson may not start to slow down until later on in the fight and therefore this could result in Trizano not having as much time to turn Dawson into a panic wrestler.
We also have to take into account the fact that Trizano is from New Jersey, and this event is taking place in New York. Trizano is bound to have support from the fans, which means that he should have home advantage for this fight. If it ends up being a close fight, the judges are more likely to award Trizano the win.
When we factor these concerns into this matchup, I still cap this fight at around 50 / 50, which means there’s good value in betting Trizano as a slight underdog. Please just know that this is one of those bets that carries a lot of risks and there’s a good chance Trizano will lose. Long term we will crush it if we keep getting our money into strong positions such as this, but there are no guarantees that Trizano will win.
Reasons for betting on Mike Trizano
Risk Factors with betting on Mike Trizano
My Betting Tip
Mike Trizano to win
[1% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 2.35
Moneyline = +135
Fractional = 27/20
The bookies believe that Mike Trizano has a 43% chance of beating Grant Dawson based on their current odds.