UFC on ESPN+ 11 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

May was a great month for us. We went 5-2 on prefight bets for a profit of just over 6 units. We also made approximately 11 units of profit in Live Betting for a total combined profit of around 17 units.

We are now up around 30 units in prefight betting in 2019 and up around 70 units in Live Betting. This means we’re already up close to 100 units in the last 5 months across both prefight and Live Betting. I assure you that I will keep working extremely hard to give us the best chance possible of keeping this monster run going.

We now turn our attention to UFC on ESPN+ 11 which kicks off a new month of betting on MMA.

Fight Betting Tip Pick
Alexander Gustafsson vs Anthony Smith No bet Gustafsson to win
Aleksandar Rakic vs Jimi Manuwa No bet Rakic to win
Chris Fishgold vs Makwan Amirkhani No bet Amirkhani to win
Christos Giagos vs Damir Hadzovic No bet Giagos to win
Daniel Teymur vs Sung Bin Jo No bet Jo to win
Lina Lansberg vs Tonya Evinger No bet Lansberg to win
Leonardo Santos vs Stevie Ray No bet Ray to win
Frank Camacho vs Nick Hein No bet Camacho to win
Rostem Akman vs Sergey Khandozhko 3 units on this fight to last longer than 1.5 rounds at odds of 1.63 | -154 | 63/100 Akman to win
Bea Malecki vs Duda Santana No bet Santana to win
Devin Clark vs Darko Stosic No bet Stosic to win
Danilo Belluardo vs Joel Alvarez No bet Alvarez to win

Rostem Akman vs Sergey Khandozhko Betting Tip and Prediction

I wasn’t expecting to have any bets for UFC Stockholm, but today the over / under lines were released, and the betting sites are offering us a good amount of value on one of them.

Last year we made a big profit betting on over 1.5 round lines in fights where the over should have been set at over 2.5 rounds. Unfortunately, in 2019 the betting sites have sharpened up, and we haven’t had as many opportunities to lock in bets like this recently.

The over in the fight between Rostem Akman and Sergey Khandozhko is currently set at over 1.5 at odds of around 1.63 | -154 | 63/100. This is a big mistake by the bookies because I believe there’s a strong chance that this fight goes the distance.

If we just go off the stats, we can see that 8 out of Khandozhko’s last 9 fights have lasted longer than 1.5 rounds:

We can also see that 3 out of Rostem Akman’s 6 Pro MMA fights have lasted longer than 1.5 rounds. This is significant because Akman has faced a very low level of opponent throughout his career:

The stats certainly suggest that it’s very likely that this fight will last longer than 1.5 rounds, but I also believe it’ll last longer than 1.5 rounds based on how both these guys matchup.

If you go back and watch Akman’s pro-MMA fights you can see that he is very methodical in his approach to fighting. He performs like a fighter who is much more experienced than someone with only 6 pro MMA fights, and this is probably because he had an extensive 16 fight Amateur career with the IMMAF.

Akman reminds me of a Tristar type fighter who is technically very good everywhere, but a fighter that doesn’t take any unnecessary risks. He works hard to avoid putting himself in danger. If he’s winning the fight standing, he’ll just chip away at his opponent, and if he has an advantage on the ground, he’ll go for maintaining position as opposed to finishing his opponent with a submission or ground and pound.

Even in some of his past fights where he was dominating his opponent, he preferred to chip away at them and win rounds as opposed to go for the finish. Akman is also very well rounded. He’s got an excellent level of Muay Thai since he trains at Tiger Muay Thai and like so many guys at that gym, he’s very difficult to take down and even harder to hold down.

Sergey Khandozhko is wild and reckless, but he’s not particularly dangerous. On the ground he’s scrappy and often gives up position and standing up he doesn’t carry that much power to hurt his opponents. He also has a good chin and good cardio, which significantly reduces the chances of him gassing early and getting himself into trouble.

We also have to take into consideration the fact that both these fighters are making their UFC debut, so it’s likely they’ll both want to start a bit slower than usual. They’ll want to settle into a rhythm and gain some confidence before opening up. This should help precious minutes tick off the clock, putting us closer to cashing the bet on the fight to last longer than 7.5 minutes.

The way these two fighters matchup suggest that there’s a very good chance this fight goes the distance, which means there’s an excellent amount of value in betting on this fight to last longer than 1.5 rounds.

Reasons for betting on this fight to last longer than 1.5 rounds

  • 8 out of Khandozhko’s last 9 fights have lasted longer than 1.5 rounds.
  • 3 out of Akman’s last 6 fights have lasted longer than 1.5 rounds.
  • Akman has lacked the killer instinct to finish a very low level of opponent throughout his pro career.
  • Both these fighters are making their UFC debut, so they are likely to want to start slower, get comfortable and find their rhythm before opening up and getting more aggressive.
  • Akman is a very tactical, methodical Tristar type fighter. He doesn’t put himself in any danger. He just focuses on chipping away at his opponent.
  • Both these guys are very tough. They both have great chins.
  • Both these guys have excellent cardio.
  • Neither fighter carries true 1 punch KO power.
  • Both these guys are very well rounded. They can handle themselves in all positions.
  • Akman is taking this fight on short notice so he’ll want to pace himself.

Risk Factors with betting on this fight to last longer than 1.5 rounds

  • Anything can happen in MMA.
  • Khandozhko is wild and reckless at times.
  • Both guys are making their UFC debut. It’s possible that one of them buckles under the pressure of competing under the bright lights of the UFC.

My Betting Tip

Over 1.5 rounds

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.63
Moneyline = -159
Fractional = 63/100

61%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that this fight has a 61% chance of lasting longer than 1.5 rounds based on their current odds.

70%

Our Probability

I believe that this fight has a 70% chance of lasting longer than 1.5 rounds based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

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