UFC on ESPN+ 12 Betting Tips, Predictions and Tips

We’ve been crushing it on prefight betting all year banking around 30 units of profit in the last 6 months, but June has been a slow month so far. We are currently 2-4 on bets for an overall loss of -2.01 units. This small loss doesn’t even put a scratch in our profits for the year, but June has been one of those months that has lacked rock solid betting opportunities. Aside from Calvin Kattar, all our other bets this month have been risky and it’s been one of those months where nothing has gone our way.

If I were comparing June to a Poker game, this would be one of those stages in the game where the dealer is just giving you absolute trash. Every 20 hands or so you’ll get dealt AJ or KQ and pay to see a flop, but you have to fold your hands for a small loss because you know if you continue playing it won’t end well.

Calvin Kattar was a strong hand, most of our other bets this month have been A10, AJ, KQ type hands and the next event doesn’t look like it has any strong hands either unless we see a shift in the odds on some fighters.

This is just the way things go sometimes. Remember that we’re not trying to make a profit on a single day or a single month, we’re trying to bank a profit over the course of an entire year.

One of the mistakes that I see people make is that they try to force bets during bad months where there aren’t many solid opportunities. This inevitably results in them making an even bigger loss, and it is these months that can define their profit and loss for a year.

We have made a substantial profit in January to May of this year, so it’s important not to force bets and put a dent in all our hard work. We need to keep things tight, pick our spots like we always do and let the profits come naturally.

Prefight betting has been great this year, but Live Betting has been even better. We are up around 70 units since the beginning of 2019, and we’ve already banked around 5 units of profit in June. We are also on a 13 event winning streak in Live Betting. Hopefully, we can keep that going by banking another solid profit this weekend.

Fight Betting Tip Pick
Korean Zombie vs Renato Moicano 3 units on Renato Moicano to win at odds of 1.53 | -189 | 53/100 Moicano to win
Bryan Barberena vs Randy Brown No bet Brown to win
Andrea Lee vs Montana De La Rosa No bet Lee to win
Alessio Di Chirico vs Kevin Holland No bet Holland to win
Ashley Yoder vs Syuri Kondo No bet Yoder to win
Dan Ige vs Kevin Aguilar No bet Aguilar to win
Luis Pena vs Matt Wiman No bet Pena to win
Allen Crowder vs Jairzinho Rozenstruick No bet Rozenstruick to win
Ariane Lipski vs Molly McCann No bet Lipski to win
Eric Spicely vs Deron Winn No bet Spicely to win
Andre Ewell vs Anderson Dos Santos No bet Dos Santos to win

Korean Zombie vs Renato Moicano Betting Tip and Prediction

I’ve been waiting to bet on Renato Moicano for around two weeks now, but in the first week the liquidity was too low, and by the time it improved he had been bet down to odds of around 1.44 | -227 | 11/25. Since then, I have been patiently waiting to lock in a bet on him because I think he beats Korean Zombie easily.

Unfortunately, UFC on ESPN+ 12 is an event with a very weak lineup of fights, which means that a lot fewer people are interested in this card, which ultimately means that a lot fewer people are betting on this card. For this reason, we’ve barely seen the odds move in the past week on all fights across the board, and this is largely down to the fact that there aren’t many casual gamblers placing bets on this event. I had hoped that this would change on fight day since the majority of casual gamblers place their bets on fight day, but we’re now around 4 hours until the event starts and the odds have barely moved. I do expect this to change between now and fight time, but I can’t wait any longer before posting this bet because I need to give you guys enough time to lock it in.

I don’t know where the odds will end up on Moicano, but I am expecting them to improve a little from where they are now. It’s possible he could close as high as 1.59 | -169 | 59/100 with a lot of late casual money coming in chasing dog bets on Korean Zombie. We know that the odds on underdogs tend to decline on fight day because Casual Gamblers prefer to bet underdogs for a better payoff. With Korean Zombie being one of the few recognizable names on the card, I do feel there’s a good chance we see a lot of late money come in on him, which would then improve the odds on Moicano. 5 Dimes and Pinnacle Sports tend to lead the market, which means that whenever the odds move there, other betting sites tend to follow them over the next few hours.

The odds on Moicano at 5 Dimes and Pinnacle Sports are currently sat at 1.53 | -189 | 53/100, so they are improving and I believe there’s a good chance they’ll get even better over the next few hours. For this reason, I don’t think there’s any need to rush into tailing this bet. I am simply posting it now so that everyone has a chance to lock it in. Now let’s talk about the stuff that matters. Fighting…

So far June has been a month defined by calculated gambles that haven’t paid off. We’ve had a total of 6 prefight bets this month, and aside from the over 1.5 rounds bet in the fight between Akman and Khandozhko and our bet on Calvin Kattar, all the others bets I’ve recommended have been calculated gambles that have lost. This hasn’t been that much of an issue because we’re only down 2 units on prefight bets in June, but thankfully we now have a rock-solid bet on Renato Moicano to hopefully get us back on track.

Anything can happen in MMA, but I’m very confident in Moicano here, and I do expect him to win. This is a terrific stylistic matchup for him.

Korean Zombie is the perfect stylistic opponent for Moicano to shine against because he likes to come forward, pressure his opponents and try to force them into engaging in a brawl. He then bets on his toughness, chin, and aggression being stronger than his opponent’s and ultimately relies on breaking them. Moicano NEVER plays this game. Ever, ever, ever. And this is why this is such a tough fight for Zombie.

Moicano loves to play the role of Matador and use his opponents forward pressure against them. He struggles against guys who want to engage him in Kickboxing range. When Moicano is being forced to fight moving backward he thrives and Korean Zombie only knows how to fight in that way. Zombie will play right into Moicano’s counter striking strengths, and that’s why I believe this is such a great stylistic matchup for Moicano.

One of the reasons why Moicano is such a tough fight for Zombie is because he’s incredibly disciplined. If a fighter cranks up the pressure on him, instead of him planting his feet and trying to back them up by getting into crazy exchanges, he’ll take a leaf out of the Alistair Overeem counter striking textbook and simply run away from them. This is great because it frustrates his opponents, and it also means that he doesn’t put himself in danger of getting sucked into reckless exchanges.

Korean Zombie is a pressure fighter, but he doesn’t do a very good job of cutting the cage off and trapping his opponents. He relies on people getting sucked into reckless exchanges by him, but like I said, Moicano won’t play that game. He’ll stay on the outside, play the role of Matador and chip away at Zombie as he comes forward. Moicano’s footwork should be way too much for him to handle.

We also have to note the fact that Korean Zombie stands very heavy on his lead leg, leaving him wide open to Moicano’s beautifully technical and beautifully devastating leg kicks.

I guess we also have to mention that both guys are primarily strikers, so I don’t expect this fight to go to the ground.

I expect Moicano to win this fight easily by using his footwork to chip away at Zombie from the outside. He won’t engage in a brawl, and he won’t slow down as a result of Zombie’s relentless pressure because Moicano loves fighting on the outside. It’s where he feels most comfortable.

The final factor that we have to take into consideration is that Korean Zombie was brutally KO’d in his last fight against Yair Rodriguez. He was out cold, body twitching, completely dead. These kinds of knockouts can change a fighter forever. It often makes them less aggressive, less confident, and less durable. This can be a career-changing KO for a fighter like Zombie who relies so much on his toughness, durability, chin, aggression, and confidence. I am not saying that the KO will definitely have a negative effect on him, but I am saying that these kinds of KO losses often take a fighter a very long time to overcome psychologically.

Now I know that Moicano also lost his last fight by KO, but not all KOs are the same. Korean Zombie was DEATHSHOTTED, while Moicano was overwhelmed by Aldo’s pressure and volume and the ref was forced to step in and stop it. It’s never good to suffer a KO in a fight, but fighters can bounce back fast from the kind of KO loss that Moicano sustained. The kind of KO loss that Korean Zombie sustained can often result in a fighter going on a steep decline and never be the same again.

Moicano to beat Korean Zombie is one of my most confident bets in a while. That doesn’t automatically mean he’ll win, but I am hoping that he’ll come through for us and put us back to roughly break even for the month of June on prefight bets. I’d be really surprised if Korean Zombie found a way to win this. It’s a very bad stylistic matchup for him.

Reasons for betting on Renato Moicano

  • Renato Moicano is a significantly better striker than Korean Zombie.
  • Renato Moicano is a very bad stylistic matchup for Korean Zombie.
  • Korean Zombie is a pressure fighter and Moicano thrives against pressure fighters. He loves to play the role of Matador and chip away at them from the outside as they come forward.
  • Korean Zombie does not do a very good job of cutting the cage off when pressuring his opponents.
  • Korean Zombie stands very heavy on his lead leg leaving him wide open to Moicano’s leg kicks.
  • Moicano is very disciplined. He will not be dragged into Korean Zombie’s crazy, reckless exchanges.
  • Korean Zombie does not have the offensive wrestling to take Moicano down.
  • Korean Zombie was brutally KO’d in his last fight agaisnt Yair Zombie. He was out cold, twitching and dead. These kinds of KOs can change a fighter forever. It often takes them a long time to recover. Some guys never recover.
  • Moicano is very tough and he has an excellent chin.
  • Moicano has good enough cardio to stay light on his feet and fight on the outside for 25 minutes.

Risk Factors with betting on Renato Moicano

  • This is Moicanos’ first fight back after suffering a devastating loss to Jose Aldo.
  • Korean Zombie is wild, reckless and unpredictable.
  • Anything can happen in MMA.

My Betting Tip

Renato Moicano to win

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.53
Moneyline = -189
Fractional = 53/100

65%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Renato Moicano has a 65% chance of beating Korean Zombie based on their current odds.

70%

Our Probability

I believe that Renato Moicano has a 70% chance of beating Korean Zombie based on our extensive research and analysis.

I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

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