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+165 on 5dimes. Just trying to convince myself that this is better than the court McGee bet.

It’s not better than the Court McGee bet mate. I capped both guys at around 50%. There is / was massive risk with both bets. This is the same kind of bet as the Court McGee bet.


I had Court McGee at +185 and thinking back I do remember it being close to 50/50. So not a bad bet.

I don`t see either as a good bet. Mcgee was at 45% tops and really I picked 42.5% so i passed.

This fight is really dangerous because when you have 2 guys who can sub any human on earth for any mistake they make its even more up in the air than 2 knockout artists. The punchers have to hit the head the sub guys only have to get a arm, leg, neck etc. Look at the Lawler Askren fight, it was almost stopped and then 30 seconds later the guy losing grabbed a neck and it was over.

I understand high risk is necessary to make money in a gambling system but this has to many unknowns. These 2 fighters vs each other on a perfect day, where they both perform exactly as historically is 50/50 IMO now add the KO loss, Maia getting older, and the fact that is a must win fir both guys which makes some over perform and some under and this fight is way to scary.

If you capped McGee at 42.5% then you must agree with me that McGee was a reasonably good bet at odds of 2.80 | +180 | 9/5 then? Odds of 2.80 carry an implied probability of 36%, so if you capped him at 42.5%, you’re still getting a 6.5% margin over the betting sites. This is a decent margin.

By their very nature we will lose a lot of high risk bets and the fighters we bet in these kinds of bets often won’t look that good.

With respect I do this for a living. Over the course of the year we will win and lose a lot of bets. The important thing is that we win a hell of a lot more than we lose.

We’ve made a good profit so far this year. We’ve only made a loss in 2 out of the last 9 months. I think that you are being overly critical.

For the Stephens fight, the odd was going up, do you think that is a determining factor?
because Maia’s odd is also going up

I don’t think it means anything mate. Remember that the odds also improved on Cub Swanson on the day of the fight.

How the hell can you say Askren makes mistakes in the scramble? Scrambling by definition is chaotic and often times a dice roll due to momentum and the physics of 2 huge men violently exploding and this is literally what he is the best at.

“Ben Askren makes a lot of technical mistakes on the ground.
Ben Askren makes a lot of mistakes in the scramble. Maia is a master at punishing opponents for the mistakes they make in scrambles.
We don’t know anything about Ben Askren’s submission defense.
Ben Askren frequently gives up position.
Maia has fought several guys who are much better MMA grapplers than Askren and none of them have wanted to go to the ground with Maia.”

If I just read these I would say you were insane, or completely novice or you were stuck in 2005 when BJJ guys could threaten anyone with subs. Maia has literally lost to every high level wrestler he has faced in the last 5. All of them not even half as good at scrambles as Askren.

Askren is the best scrambler in the history of the UFC. It is literally his bread and butter. He gives up positions because he is so amazing at funk style he didn’t mind giving up a solid and safe position for a risky but dominant one. If anything you can say he was to risky but who the hell would ever say these words….

You basically say he is meh at scrambling, meh on the ground and that he is meh vs other UFC fighters who best him at grappling and he has no striking…Then how did he win 19 fights?

Maybe its a British thing, but Askren is widely considered the best defensive folkstyle wrestler ever in the UFC and can be argued ever period. Where as Burroughs use freakish blast doubles that rely on explosions and Khabib uses a single and runs the pipe or controls, Askren would bait his opponents to blast him or grab him and he would then in mid air reverse them and wind up sitting on top. This means he is the king of scramblers.

I don`t disagree that Maia can get it done, and normally I agree with your logic at least, but this makes zero sense.
Questions about him recovering from KO and having worse striking are all correct but basically saying Maia is better in all aspects is just wrong. Maia has never seen anyone even close to his level, because they don`t exist yet in the UFC. Woodley and Din Thomas who are both great wrestlers explain how he is simply next level, and even Jorge Masvidal said he was the best scrambler he has seen.

It weirds me out when someone I consider reputable gets a take this bad. Its almost like the storyline is so clearly defined and obvious you are trying to add extra deeper layers and losing sight of the basic facts.

Askren is way better at controlling where the fight goes and keeping it there. This doesn’t mean standing or ground it means, all variations of guard, sidecontrol etc. Maia is basically unstoppable once hes on your back, but from guard he only beat Ed Herman and all his pulling guard was simply to be able to grab a back. Askren will never let his back get taken unless something went extremely wrong.

I cannot see the best scrambler ever who used to ride the best wrestlers in the US like skateboards and as they fell to the ground could spin around in air from being doubled to landing in side control, being dominated in his best areas.

The Court Mcgee bet was very questionable also. Im not sure whats happening.

Is there somewhere we can see your previously posted live bets? Ist here a month long trial for the live bets or something? Live is a ton of money a month and so far the normal bets are fine but the 20$ a month doesn’t get much more than 2 solid picks a month. I wouldn’t have done court or this bet and there are no other bets posted.

Hi Chad,

Hope you’re having a good day mate.

It is not always easy for me to describe in words how I feel about a fight. I’m not the best writer and often struggle to get across my point of view. I have it in my head, but I understand that I don’t always do a very good job of getting it out. I spent about 4 hours researching this fight, if you’d like more specific details on why I came to the conclusions I came to in regards to Ben Askren I recommend checking out the Youtube video below:

Live Betting on MMA is a low liquidity betting market, so it’s not practical for me to offer free trials for this service because we can only have a small number of people tail the live bets without the odds declining significantly or becoming suspended.

As for the Court McGee fight, I think I capped it very accurately at 50/50. Sean Brady showed up and looked significantly better than he ever had done before. You can see for yourself by watching my breakdown video for this fight where I watch all of Brady’s recent fights and cap the fight in real time:

I understand that after the fact the bet may not have looked good, but it was a great bet based on Brady’s past performances and all the information we had available to us before the fight. I 10000% stand by this bet. We’re not betting on Robots. Fighters are on a continual journey of self improvements and Brady looked outstanding. No one could have predicted the improvements he had made in a short space of time. Fighters often show up and look worse in their debuts. They very rarely look better.

You handled that way better than I would have. ??

“Maybe it’s a british thing,” or maybe he’s spent 10,000 hours studying fights. Twat.

So, who is the novice now?

“Askren is the best scrambler in the history of the UFC”

HAHAHA gets faked out by a leg attack and has back taken like a fucking blue belt.

“Let’s just hope that nothing crazy happens.”

Classic MJ trait – be shit at scrambles/on bottom and lose a fight you’ve been winning – will now be a considerable betting factor hence forth.

“Maybe it’s a british thing,”

As soon as I read that jingoistic nonsense from him I gave up.

Some people will never see what evidence is put in front of them. It was a good bet from the outset and kudos to Allsopp for putting that evidence in front of me via his youtube film and his info here on his site.

Hopefully funky will now see that being so one dimensional does not work in MMA against high level opponents. Yes, compared to who Funky is used to fighting, Maia is very high level.

I wish him well in any further business ventures, but after three fights at high level MMA opponents, it’s obvious he is not cut out for this.

Just watched the MJ fight again and still agree with ya that he wins that fight 75% of the time. Ray wasn’t even close too getting a take down and when he did fucking Johnson layed there. He was so much better standing but It’s MMA and there’s always a chance…

Well done mate. Dealt with that well. Very interesting perspective people have.

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