UFC on ESPN+ 20 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

This upcoming weekend is one of the busiest weekends of the year, with 3 major MMA events taking place. We have a Bellator on Friday night, a UFC event on Saturday afternoon, and then another big Bellator event on Saturday night. As ever I will be researching every fight on these 3 cards to try and find strong positions to put our money. I’ll let you know via email and through the website as soon as I find any bets.

So far, we up are up just over 1 unit in prefight bets this month. I am hoping that we can finish the month strong by banking a solid profit this weekend.

It has been a good month for us in Live Betting, as we have made just under 12 units of profit.

This week I have decided that to finish the month as strongly as possible, I will be Live Betting all 3 major MMA events this weekend.

Fight Betting Tip Pick
Ben Askren vs Demian Maia 1 unit on Demian Maia to win at odds of 2.50 | +150 | 3/2 Maia to win
Michael Johnson vs Stevie Ray 3 units on Michael Johnson to win at odds of 1.40 | -250 | 2/5 Johnson to win
Beneil Dariush vs Frank Camacho No bet Dariush to win
Ciryl Gane vs Dontale Mayes No bet Gane to win
Laureano Staropoli vs Muslim Salikhov No bet Staropoli to win
Ashley Yoder vs Randa Markos No bet Markos to win
Alex White vs Rafael Fiziev No bet Fiziev to win
Enrique Barzola vs Movsar Evloev No bet Barzola to win
Maurice Greene vs Sergey Pavlovich No bet Pavlovich to win
Aleksandra Albu vs Loma Lookboonmee No bet Lookboonmee to win
Jeff Hughes vs Raphael Pessoa No bet Hughes to win

Ben Askren vs Demian Maia Betting Tip and Prediction

When I began researching the fight between Ben Askren and Demian Maia, I was adamant that I would not be betting Maia. I didn’t feel there was anything I could see to make me want to bet on a 41-year-old with bad cardio. My goals when researching this fight were to establish whether Askren was worth a bet and also to gather valuable information that could be used for Live Betting.

Very early on into my research, I began to see giant holes in Askren’s skillset that Maia could potentially exploit. I spent about 4 hours researching this fight, and in the end, I just can’t get away from the fact that there’s value on Maia. I don’t feel great about betting on a 41-year-old fighter with bad cardio, but this is about as clear a 50 / 50 fight as you’re ever going to get. For this reason, it’s a no brainer to bet Maia at his current odds of around 2.50 | +150 | 3/2. These odds carry an implied probability of just 40%, so in a 50 / 50 fight, we’re getting a decent 10% margin over the bookies.

At this stage, I want to make it clear that I don’t feel at all confident that Maia will win. This is a total coinflip, and it’s very possible Maia could look terrible on Saturday night and get wet blanketed for 5 rounds.

As our community grows, I am starting to notice an increasing number of people join us who do not understand probabilities and do not understand the importance of putting your money in high-risk situations when the risk to reward ratio makes sense to do so. This is understandable because it takes a long time to develop a gambler’s mindset, but I want to make it clear that there is a huge chance that this bet will lose. It is not a safe bet. Whenever I place high-risk bets like this, I expect them to lose. If they end up winning, it’s a bonus.

This mindset prepares me psychologically for the disappointment of a loss. I expect the worse, and then anything else is a bonus. This mindset helps me deal with losses without getting angry or disappointed. For example; When you buy a Lottery ticket, you don’t get mad and upset when you don’t win. This is because you understand that the odds are against you. This is the exact mindset that you should use to approach this kind of high-risk bet.

With that being said, if you have a problem with losing, I strongly recommend that you do not tail this bet. At the current odds, there’s excellent value on Demian Maia, but it doesn’t change the fact that Askren could potentially dominate him. No one can know for sure how this fight will play out, and that’s part of the reason why Maia is such a good bet at underdog odds. The uncertainty surrounding what may happen is always a reason to consider betting on the underdog.

It is, of course, important to note that these kinds of high-risk bets have been a cash cow for us this year. They make up a decent portion of our overall profits, and if you’re serious about making money from gambling, I’d recommend tailing all of these bets and just taking it on the chin when they lose. Remember that each individual bet is not important. The goal is to win more than you lose over a long period of time, and we certainly win more than we lose over a long period of time.

To understand why I feel Maia is a good bet, you must first understand the fighting styles of both Maia and Askren. Both guys are relatively predictable, and that’s why it is10am h ironic that this fight is so hard to predict.

Demaia Maia likes to fight in bursts. At 41 years old, he doesn’t have the cardio to fight at a high pace for 25 minutes, so you’ll see him commit everything he has to a takedown. If he gets it, his opponents are usually in big trouble until the end of the round. It’s almost always utter domination when Maia gains a dominant position over his opponent. If Maia doesn’t get the takedown, he then goes into a defensive shell. He’ll circle away from his opponent and try to avoid engaging. He then recharges his batteries for the next Burst attack. You’ll see him repeat this cycle over the entire duration of the fight.

The guys who have the most success against Maia can stuff his takedowns and also pressure him in between bursts so that he doesn’t have time to recharge his batteries. This leads to him rapidly gassing out and becoming very predictable. To see exactly what I mean, I recommend going back and watching Maia’s recent fights against Rocco Martin [particularly the 3rd round], Kamaru Usman, and in particular, Colby Covington. You will see that Maia struggles against these opponents because they do a great job of turning him into a panic wrestler in between his burst cycles when he’s trying to recharge his batteries. He is unable to pace himself because they smother him in pressure and force him to work.

Now compare those fights to his performances against Tyron Woodley. Maia’s cardio holds up pretty well in that fight because Woodley plays the role of Matador. He doesn’t pressure Maia at all. Instead, he focuses on using his wrestling to keep the fight standing, and he then picks Maia off as he comes forward.

This is such a significant and interesting detail to pay attention to because to the naked eye it’s easy to write Maia off and say that he struggles against wrestlers because he lost to Covington, Usman, and Woodley, but the irony is that none of those guys used their Wrestling to beat Maia, they all used their striking. Take the striking advantages away from those 3 guys, and these fights would start to look very different.

Woodley, Usman, and Covington are 3 of the highest level wrestlers we have in MMA right now, and none of them wanted anything to do with Maia when it came to grappling. They treated the ground like Lava.

Why is that?

If Maia had grappling deficiencies that were so easy to neutralize for Wrestlers, why did none of these high-level wrestlers want to engage with him in grappling? Why did they all use their striking to beat him?

There is a certain section of the MMA community who believes that Askren’s wrestling is at a higher level than Covington, Usman, and Woodley, and I can tell you with absolute 100% certainty that this is not the case. On paper, his wrestling credentials are impressive, but they have not converted over into MMA grappling that well. If NCAA Div 1 level wrestling automatically made you a great MMA grappler, the top 5 of every division would be packed full of NCAA Div 1 wrestlers. We know that this is not the case, so trust me when I tell you that Covington, Usman, and Woodley are lightyears ahead of Askren when it comes to MMA grappling. Askren’s MMA record of 19-1 is extremely padded.

Covington, Woodley, and Usman are all fundamentally solid MMA grapplers. They leave very few openings for their opponents. Their technique is razor-sharp, and yet they were all afraid to mix it up with Maia on the ground. This is a significant detail to pay attention to because in contrast, Askren leaves tons of openings on the ground. If you go back and watch his fight against Aleksakhin, Hieron, Koreshkov, and Thani you’ll see multiple occasions where he gave up position, got reversed from a dominant position, gave up his back or made a basic technical mistake that would get him into big trouble against an Elite grappler like Demian Maia.

We have seen over the years that Maia only needs one small opening to take a dominant position, and in Askren’s fights, he often presents his opponents with many, many opportunities to put him in a bad position. Over the years, he has only fought a low level of opponent, and they haven’t been able to make him pay for this, but now that he’s in the UFC, the cracks are starting to show. When have you ever seen someone pick Maia up like a child and dump him on his head like what Robbie Lawler was able to do to Ben Askren?

This is an extremely interesting fight because, for the first time in a long time, Demian Maia will have an advantage over his opponent when it comes to striking. Ben Askren literally has no striking defense, and he cannot throw a punch. Maia is lightyears ahead of him when it comes to striking. I can see a scenario where Maia just keeps this fight standing and outpoints Askren for 5 rounds.

The irony here is that Maia’s cardio is actually pretty decent in a standup fight. He can Kickbox semi effectively for 25 minutes, no problem. He only starts to gas out when you make him grapple hard, or you pressure him.

If this fight stays standing, there is no question in my mind that Maia dominates, but the real question here is whether or not these boys will get into a grappling match. Whenever you have two vicious KO artists, people expect a violent slugfest, but in reality, we’re often left with an awkward fight where not a lot happens. Who could forget the fight between Ngannou and Derrick Lewis. Everyone expected the fight to end in a devastating KO, but it ended up going the distance. We often see the same thing happen with grapplers. You think two high-level grapplers are going to get into a high-level grappling match, but instead, you get a sloppy Kickboxing match. It happens all the time.

This fight is interesting because Askren is a strong offensive wrestler who makes critical mistakes in the scramble. While Demian Maia is a weak offensive wrestler, who is an Assasin in the scramble. One mistake against Maia, and he’ll take your back or smother you from top position.

I don’t know how this fight is going to play out, but there are a few things I do know. I know that Askren is screwed if this fight stays standing. I also know that Askren has frequently and repeatedly made critical mistakes in scrambles against a much lower level of grappler than Maia. If he makes those same mistakes against Maia, he’ll be in big trouble. I also know that Maia only struggles against guys who smother him in pressure, and Askren isn’t capable of smothering him in pressure because he doesn’t have the striking to do so.

The only question marks for me over this fight is how hard Askren can make Maia work. Can he pressure him and tire him out in other ways? Can he drive Maia into the cage and grind on him in the clinch? This isn’t something we’ve ever seen Askren do before, but it doesn’t mean he hasn’t got it in his locker. We also don’t know whether Askren’s sloppy grappling in his fights over the last few years is down to the fact that he hasn’t shown his past opponents any respect. Maybe he’ll be more disciplined against Maia, and maybe he won’t make the same mistakes, maybe he’ll use his wrestling to neutralize Maia’s BJJ and just chip away at him with ground and pound from dominant positions.

There are a lot of question marks over this fight. There is a lot of uncertainty. In fights like this, which could go either way, I will always be tempted to bet the underdog. In my opinion, this is as close to a 50 / 50 fight as you are ever going to get, so it’s a no brainer to bet on Maia as a 2.50 | +150 | 3/2 underdog because those odds carry an implied probability of 40%. There’s definite value here. Now let’s just hope that the cards fall in our favor.

Reasons for betting on Demian Maia

[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Ben Askren is a very low level striker. He has very bad striking defense and can’t throw a punch. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Demian Maia has a huge striking advantage over Askren. He will dominate if this fight stays standing. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Ben Askren doesn’t have the striking to be able to pressure Maia and prevent him from pacing himself in between burst attacks. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Ben Askren makes a lot of technical mistakes on the ground.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Ben Askren makes a lot of mistakes in the scramble. Maia is a master at punishing opponents for the mistakes they make in scrambles.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]We don’t know anything about Ben Askren’s submission defense.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Ben Askren frequently gives up position. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Maia has fought several guys who are much better MMA grapplers than Askren and none of them have wanted to go to the ground with Maia.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Demian Maia will have a slight size advantage over Askren.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]The only way Askren can win this fight is if he takes Maia to the ground. This is exactly where Maia wants to be. We’ve seen guys like Hieron and Aleksakhin reverse position and put Askren on the bottom multiple times. If they can do it, Maia should also be able to do it. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Fighters are often never the same again after suffering a devastating KO. Askren suffered a life changing amount of damage in his last fight against Masvidal. This may have had a significant impact on his confidence.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]This will be the first time in a long time where Maia won’t have to worry about his opponent’s striking.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Demian Maia’s striking is deceptively good. He outstruck Colby Covington in the 1st half of their fight and inflicted a decent amount of damage.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Ben Askren can only win this fight in one range. He can only win this fight if it goes to the ground, whereas Maia could win this fight standing up or on the ground.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]

Risk Factors with betting on Demian Maia

[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Demian Maia is now 41 years old and on a steep decline.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Demian Maia has bad cardio and this is a 25 minute fight.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Ben Askren is extremely tough. He’s the kind of guy that you have to kill in order to beat.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Ben Askren has excellent cardio. He can fight at a high pace for 25 minutes no problem.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Ben Askren has devastating ground and pound.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Ben Askren is a strong wrestler.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]

My Betting Tip

Demian Maia to win

Recommended Stake

1 Unit

[1% of your bankroll]


Decimal = 2.50
Moneyline = +150
Fractional = 3/2


Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Demian Maia has a 40% chance of beating Ben Askren based on their current odds.


Our Probability

I believe that Demian Maia has a 50% chance of beating Ben Askren based on my extensive research and analysis.

Michael Johnson vs Stevie Ray Betting Tip and Prediction

Michael Johnson to beat Stevie Ray was one of the first names that jumped out at me earlier in the week when I began to research UFC Singapore. Unfortunately, his odds all week floated around 1.31 | -323 | 31/100, which was too steep a price to pay because those odds carried an Implied Probability of around 76%.

In the last 24 hours, we have seen a big improvement in Johnson’s odds on many websites. You can now bet him at odds of up to 1.43 | -233 | 43/100 on some betting sites, which now makes him playable. The current average odds available across all betting sites are 1.40 | -250 | 2/5. I like a bet on him at these odds. Just be sure to use odds comparison sites like BestFightOdds and Odds Checker to ensure you’re getting the best value odds on this fight.

Michael Johnson and Stevie Ray are two fighters with a lot in common. They’re both counter strikers, they’re both Southpaws, and they both got brutally KO’d in their last fights. This is Johnson’s first fight back after he was just seconds away from cruising to an easy decision win against Josh Emmett. Emmett barely touched Johnson in that fight but landed a death shot from hell with about 30 seconds to go. Stevie Ray suffered a similar fate in his last fight against Leonardo Santos when he got flatlined in the 1st round. Usually, I wouldn’t bet on a fighter in their first fight back after being brutally KO’d, but since both these guys suffered bad KOs in their last fights, I feel it’s a level playing field.

You don’t have to spend very long watching past fights from Michael Johnson and Stevie Ray to see that the skill gap is significant here. Both guys are primarily Southpaw strikers, but Johnson has a significant speed and technical advantage.

Stevie Ray’s best weapon is his inside leg kick, but that will be a lot less effective against Michael Johnson because Johnson’s also a Southpaw. This completely takes away the inside leg kick from Ray and turns it into an outside leg kick. This means that Ray will be landing the kick from different angles that he’s not used to, and it’ll leave him wide open to Johnson’s fast hand counter’s. Ray’s inside leg kick from the Southpaw stance causes a lot of Orthodox stance opponents a problem, but it’ll be nowhere near as dangerous against a fellow southpaw.

There are three areas in this fight where Johnson has massive advantages over Ray, and I believe that they are going to be the difference in this matchup.

The 1st difference is Boxing. Johnson has excellent hand speed, and there’s no doubt that he is a significantly better Boxer than Ray. I’m sure that Ray will have his moments in this fight, but Johnson should be able to outstrike him over 3 rounds.

The 2nd area where Johnson will have an advantage is footwork. Johnson has some of the best footwork and striking defense in the division. It’s one of the main reasons why Josh Emmett couldn’t get near him in his last fight. Johnson’s very mobile, and he has the cardio to stay light on his feet for 15 minutes. He should be able to use his superior footwork and head movement to slip Ray’s power shots and pick him apart.

The 3rd area where Johnson has a big advantage is speed. They say that speed kills, and I really feel that this will be the biggest difference in this fight. Ray has reasonably good striking technique, but Michael Johnson is much faster. He should be able to beat Ray to the punch.

Ironically both these guys share a similar weakness in that grapplers have caused them a problem in the past. It is worth noting that Michael Johnson is a significantly better wrestler than Ray, and it could be an easy night’s work for Johnson if he chooses to try and take Ray down and control him on the ground. It’s unlikely he will do this, but it is a possibility.

Fighter’s coming back from brutal KOs are usually a little gunshy, but Johnson’s experience should make him less gunshy than Ray. We also have to take into consideration the fact that Ray will need to respect Johnson’s hands. Johnson doesn’t have devastating KO power, but he does have KO wins over guys like Dustin Poirier, Gleison Tibau, and Danny Castillo, so you know he’s dangerous. In contrast, Stevie Ray hasn’t KO’d anyone since Leonardo Mafra all the way back in 2015.

It’s also worth noting that Michael Johnson looked outstanding at the weigh-ins yesterday. When he first dropped down to 145 pounds, he didn’t look healthy, but now it appears that he has got his diet and weight cut under control.

Another small X-Factor to take into consideration is that Michael Johnson has a 3.5-inch reach advantage. He does a great job of using this reach to fight long.

The odds are steep on Michael Johnson, but he has pretty much every advantage you could want going into an MMA fight. He’s the better striker, the better grappler, he’s the more dangerous fighter, he has a reach advantage and he’s more experienced. Anything can happen in MMA, but this is one of the safer bets that I’ve recommended over the last few months. Let’s just hope that nothing crazy happens.

Reasons for betting on Michael Johnson

[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Johnson and Ray are both strikers, but Johnson is a significantly better striker. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Both Johnson and Ray are Southpaws, but Johnson is the more experienced Southpaw. Ray may have some significant problems adjusting to fighting a fellow Southpaw. We’ve seen Johnson perform many times against Southpaws in the past. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Michael Johnson is a significantly better grappler than Stevie Ray. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Michael Johnson is much faster than Stevie Ray.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Michael Johnson has excellent footwork, head movement and striking defense.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Stevie Ray’s biggest weapon is his leg kick, but this won’t be as effective against a Southpaw.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Michael Johnson does a great job of fighting long. He’ll have a 3.5 inch reach advantage over Stevie Ray. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]At times Stevie Ray is passive and he struggles to put his stamp on rounds.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Michael Johnson has fast hands and excellent Boxing.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Michael Johnson trains with some of the best fighters in the world at Henri Hooft’s Combat Club. He trains with guys like Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns everyday, while Ray trains at a small gym in Scotland. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Michael Johnson seems to have the cut to 145 pound under control. He looked great at the weigh ins yesterday.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Stevie Ray can be quite passive at times. He often struggles to put his stamp on rounds.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Michael Johnson has excellent cardio. He can fight at a high pace for 3 rounds.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]

Risk Factors with betting on Michael Johnson

[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Michael Johnson was brutally KO’d in his last fight against Josh Emmett. Sometimes KOs like this can change a fighter forever.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Michael Johnson is now 33 years old, with almost 40 pro fights. He has a lot of miles on the clock.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Anything can happen in MMA.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]

My Betting Tip

Michael Johnson to win

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]


Decimal = 1.40
Moneyline = -250
Fractional = 2/5


Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Michael Johnson has a 71% chance of beating Stevie Ray based on their current odds.


Our Probability

I believe that Michael Johnson has a 75% chance of beating Stevie Ray based on my extensive research and analysis.

I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.


    1. I don`t see either as a good bet. Mcgee was at 45% tops and really I picked 42.5% so i passed.

      This fight is really dangerous because when you have 2 guys who can sub any human on earth for any mistake they make its even more up in the air than 2 knockout artists. The punchers have to hit the head the sub guys only have to get a arm, leg, neck etc. Look at the Lawler Askren fight, it was almost stopped and then 30 seconds later the guy losing grabbed a neck and it was over.

      I understand high risk is necessary to make money in a gambling system but this has to many unknowns. These 2 fighters vs each other on a perfect day, where they both perform exactly as historically is 50/50 IMO now add the KO loss, Maia getting older, and the fact that is a must win fir both guys which makes some over perform and some under and this fight is way to scary.

      1. If you capped McGee at 42.5% then you must agree with me that McGee was a reasonably good bet at odds of 2.80 | +180 | 9/5 then? Odds of 2.80 carry an implied probability of 36%, so if you capped him at 42.5%, you’re still getting a 6.5% margin over the betting sites. This is a decent margin.

        By their very nature we will lose a lot of high risk bets and the fighters we bet in these kinds of bets often won’t look that good.

        With respect I do this for a living. Over the course of the year we will win and lose a lot of bets. The important thing is that we win a hell of a lot more than we lose.

        We’ve made a good profit so far this year. We’ve only made a loss in 2 out of the last 9 months. I think that you are being overly critical.

  1. How the hell can you say Askren makes mistakes in the scramble? Scrambling by definition is chaotic and often times a dice roll due to momentum and the physics of 2 huge men violently exploding and this is literally what he is the best at.

    “Ben Askren makes a lot of technical mistakes on the ground.
    Ben Askren makes a lot of mistakes in the scramble. Maia is a master at punishing opponents for the mistakes they make in scrambles.
    We don’t know anything about Ben Askren’s submission defense.
    Ben Askren frequently gives up position.
    Maia has fought several guys who are much better MMA grapplers than Askren and none of them have wanted to go to the ground with Maia.”

    If I just read these I would say you were insane, or completely novice or you were stuck in 2005 when BJJ guys could threaten anyone with subs. Maia has literally lost to every high level wrestler he has faced in the last 5. All of them not even half as good at scrambles as Askren.

    Askren is the best scrambler in the history of the UFC. It is literally his bread and butter. He gives up positions because he is so amazing at funk style he didn’t mind giving up a solid and safe position for a risky but dominant one. If anything you can say he was to risky but who the hell would ever say these words….

    You basically say he is meh at scrambling, meh on the ground and that he is meh vs other UFC fighters who best him at grappling and he has no striking…Then how did he win 19 fights?

    Maybe its a British thing, but Askren is widely considered the best defensive folkstyle wrestler ever in the UFC and can be argued ever period. Where as Burroughs use freakish blast doubles that rely on explosions and Khabib uses a single and runs the pipe or controls, Askren would bait his opponents to blast him or grab him and he would then in mid air reverse them and wind up sitting on top. This means he is the king of scramblers.

    I don`t disagree that Maia can get it done, and normally I agree with your logic at least, but this makes zero sense.
    Questions about him recovering from KO and having worse striking are all correct but basically saying Maia is better in all aspects is just wrong. Maia has never seen anyone even close to his level, because they don`t exist yet in the UFC. Woodley and Din Thomas who are both great wrestlers explain how he is simply next level, and even Jorge Masvidal said he was the best scrambler he has seen.

    It weirds me out when someone I consider reputable gets a take this bad. Its almost like the storyline is so clearly defined and obvious you are trying to add extra deeper layers and losing sight of the basic facts.

    Askren is way better at controlling where the fight goes and keeping it there. This doesn’t mean standing or ground it means, all variations of guard, sidecontrol etc. Maia is basically unstoppable once hes on your back, but from guard he only beat Ed Herman and all his pulling guard was simply to be able to grab a back. Askren will never let his back get taken unless something went extremely wrong.

    I cannot see the best scrambler ever who used to ride the best wrestlers in the US like skateboards and as they fell to the ground could spin around in air from being doubled to landing in side control, being dominated in his best areas.

    The Court Mcgee bet was very questionable also. Im not sure whats happening.

    Is there somewhere we can see your previously posted live bets? Ist here a month long trial for the live bets or something? Live is a ton of money a month and so far the normal bets are fine but the 20$ a month doesn’t get much more than 2 solid picks a month. I wouldn’t have done court or this bet and there are no other bets posted.

    1. Hi Chad,

      Hope you’re having a good day mate.

      It is not always easy for me to describe in words how I feel about a fight. I’m not the best writer and often struggle to get across my point of view. I have it in my head, but I understand that I don’t always do a very good job of getting it out. I spent about 4 hours researching this fight, if you’d like more specific details on why I came to the conclusions I came to in regards to Ben Askren I recommend checking out the Youtube video below:


      Live Betting on MMA is a low liquidity betting market, so it’s not practical for me to offer free trials for this service because we can only have a small number of people tail the live bets without the odds declining significantly or becoming suspended.

      As for the Court McGee fight, I think I capped it very accurately at 50/50. Sean Brady showed up and looked significantly better than he ever had done before. You can see for yourself by watching my breakdown video for this fight where I watch all of Brady’s recent fights and cap the fight in real time:


      I understand that after the fact the bet may not have looked good, but it was a great bet based on Brady’s past performances and all the information we had available to us before the fight. I 10000% stand by this bet. We’re not betting on Robots. Fighters are on a continual journey of self improvements and Brady looked outstanding. No one could have predicted the improvements he had made in a short space of time. Fighters often show up and look worse in their debuts. They very rarely look better.

  2. “Maybe it’s a british thing,”

    As soon as I read that jingoistic nonsense from him I gave up.

    Some people will never see what evidence is put in front of them. It was a good bet from the outset and kudos to Allsopp for putting that evidence in front of me via his youtube film and his info here on his site.

    Hopefully funky will now see that being so one dimensional does not work in MMA against high level opponents. Yes, compared to who Funky is used to fighting, Maia is very high level.

    I wish him well in any further business ventures, but after three fights at high level MMA opponents, it’s obvious he is not cut out for this.

  3. Just watched the MJ fight again and still agree with ya that he wins that fight 75% of the time. Ray wasn’t even close too getting a take down and when he did fucking Johnson layed there. He was so much better standing but It’s MMA and there’s always a chance…

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